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- 胡拉拉胡拉拉
  ·2025-01-29
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- 胡拉拉胡拉拉
  ·2021-07-09
  i.oooookk.っっっlっlう
  Aviation Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: Capacity Improvement, Spring of Aviation Stocks Coming?
  虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。值得注意的是，原油
  Aviation Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: Capacity Improvement, Spring of Aviation Stocks Coming?
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The first quarter financial report shows that the performance of the four major airlines in the United States is not very good. However, with the orderly vaccination and the increase of airlines' capacity, the performance in the second quarter may be better than that in the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that the price of crude oil soared by 24% in the whole second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared with Q1 of 2021. However, because the price of crude oil was at a low level in the second quarter of last year, except Delta Air Lines, the fuel costs of the other three airlines increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down the performance.</p><p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The earnings report will be released before the U.S. stock market market on July 14th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market on July 20th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Will release earnings before the U.S. stock market on July 22nd.</i></p><p><b>First Quarter Results Review</b></p><p>In the first quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of stocks is not satisfactory. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>The performance of miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>And American Airlines' results were mixed, with revenue falling short of expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Even such a performance is backed by salary assistance and company voluntary separation and leave plans to improve airline performance. For example, Southwest Airlines, according to GAAP, had a net profit of 116 million yuan in the first quarter, and after adjustment, it became a net loss of 1.015 billion yuan. The main influencing factor was $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary assistance and the resignation and vacation of employees.</p><p>For another example, Delta Air Lines had a net loss of $11.77 in the first quarter, but after adjustment, it became a net loss of $2.256 billion. The most important factor was the confirmation of government subsidies of $1.186 billion. Delta expects the remaining $847 million in grant funding to be confirmed in Q2.</p><p><b>What factors to watch for in the second quarter</b></p><p><b>1. Airlines welcome the increase in capacity</b></p><p>With the expansion of vaccination scope and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers began to travel more, aviation demand gradually picked up, and the industry situation picked up.<b>One obvious sign of improvement is the improvement of airline capacity.</b></p><p>Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have obviously improved their capacity. Among them,<b>Southwest Airlines</b>In the first quarterly report, it is expected that Q2 capacity will increase by 90% compared with last year, but it has not yet recovered to the level of 2019.<b>It is about 15% lower than the same period in 2019.</b>While<b>American Airlines</b>Expected Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.</b><i>(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Miles, is the main measure of airline capacity.)</i></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines Expected Q2 Capacity</span></p><p>Delta and United Continental have been slower to recover capacity. Delta expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:</b>United Continental expects, Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019.</b></p><p><b>Another sign of improvement is attendance.</b>Among them, Southwest Airlines expects that Q2 passenger revenue and attendance rate will also increase. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of passenger revenue in April and May will narrow to 40%-45%, which was previously expected to decline by 45%-55% year-on-year; It is expected that the attendance rate in April and May will increase from the previous 70%-75% to 75%-80%.</p><p><b>2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 results</b></p><p>Secondly, it is worth paying attention to the impact of higher oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1st to closing on June 30th), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How does rising oil prices affect airlines? Here, take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.</p><p>Southwest operates at 8 cents per seat per mile, including 2.02 cents for fuel, which accounts for about 25 percent of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected the fuel cost in the second quarter to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared with $1.87 in the first quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-1% to +4%, with little overall change.<i>(Note: Fuel cost is per gallon price, the same below)</i></p><p>But compared to the fuel cost of $1.33 in Q2 2020, that's up 39%-47% year-over-year. In other words, the fuel cost alone will probably raise the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared with Q2 of 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The situation is similar for United Continental and American Airlines.</b>According to the above method, it can be calculated that the fuel cost of United Continental Airlines in Q2 2021 will probably increase the company's operating cost by about 10.2%, and that of American Airlines is 6.6%. The derivation steps are placed at the end of the article for your reference.</p><p>But,<b>Delta Air Lines is special. The company expects that the fuel cost in Q2 will drop year-on-year, and the overall performance in the second quarter will be little affected.</b></p><p>Delta expects the fuel cost in Q2 to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared with $1.91 in Q1, with a quarter-over-quarter change range of-3% to 2%, with little quarter-over-quarter fluctuation. However, Delta's Q2 fuel cost is lower than that of Q2 2.16 in 2020. Maybe Q2 is not much affected by the fuel cost. With the confirmation of the aforementioned government subsidy of $847 million, the performance may exceed market expectations, but the weak recovery of transportation capacity is a hidden danger.<i>(Note: All fuel costs are adjusted prices)</i></p><p><b>How do some airlines see Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Southwest Airlines expects that capacity in Q2 2021 will decrease by approximately 15% compared with the same period in 2019, and April revenue in Q2 will decrease by 40%-45% compared with the same period in 2019; May revenue decreased by 35%-40% compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li><b>Delta:</b>Delta expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue ranged from $5.64 billion to $6.27 billion, compared to Q2 2019</b>$12.54 billion,<b>Slip about 50%-55%. Market bookings decreased by approximately 32% as compared to the same period in 2019.</b></li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental expects, Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% as compared to Q2 2019;</b>Revenue in Q2 2021 was approximately $9.12 billion, down approximately 20% from $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin is negative 20%.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>American Airlines expects that Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;</b>Expected<b>Q2 revenue was approximately $7.176 billion, compared to Q2 2019</b>$11.96 billion,<b>Decrease of about 40%</b>； Excluding exceptional items, net<b>The pre-tax profit margin is between minus 27% and minus 30%.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Air Lines Q2 Guidance</span></p><p><b>What does Bloomberg think of airline Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Bloomberg estimates Southwest Airlines Q2 2021 revenue of $3.86 billion, adjusted net loss of $260 million, adjusted loss per share of $0.38;</li><li><b>Delta:</b>Bloomberg estimates Delta's Q2 2021 revenue of $6.34 billion, adjusted net loss of $920 million, adjusted loss per share of $1.44;</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>Bloomberg estimates that United's Q2 2021 revenue is $5.25 billion, on an adjusted net loss of $1.39 billion, or an adjusted loss of $4.26 per share.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>Bloomberg estimates that American Airlines will post an adjusted net loss of $1.54 billion on Q2 2021 revenue of $7.17 billion and an adjusted loss of $2.4 per share.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>United Continental Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>American Airlines</span></p><p><b>Attachment 1: Details of the first quarter results of the four major airlines in the United States</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines recorded revenue of US$2.052 billion, compared with market expectations of US$2.057 billion, and US$4.234 billion in the same period last year; Net profit in Q1 2021 was US$116 million, and the market expected net loss of US$734 million, compared with a net loss of US$94 million in the same period last year; Q1 2021 earnings per share were $0.19, and the market was expecting a loss of $1.2, compared to a loss of $0.18 in the year-ago quarter.</li><li><b>Delta Air Lines: First-quarter results missed expectations.</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Delta's revenue was US$4.15 billion, down 52% year-on-year, and miss the market expectation' revenue was US$3.983 billion, compared with US$8.592 billion in the same period last year. The net loss in the first quarter was US$1.177 billion, compared with a loss of US$534 million in the same period last year; Adjusted net loss in the first quarter was $2.256 billion, compared with $326 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss of $3.55 per share in the first quarter, compared to the market expectation of a loss of $3.17 per share.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>UnitedContinental's revenue and GAAP EPS missed estimates, and non-GAAP EPS beat market expectations. Revenue in Q1 2021 was US$3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% from US$7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US$1,357 million, narrowing by 20.4% year-on-year from the loss of US$1,704 million in Q2 2020; Loss of $4.29 per share narrowed 37.5% year-over-year from loss of $6.86 per share in Q2 2020.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was US$4.008 billion, down 52.9% year-on-year from US$8.515 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US$1.250 billion, narrowing by 44.2% year-on-year from the loss of US$2.241 billion in Q1 2020; Loss of $1.97 per share, compared to a loss of $5.26 per share in Q1 2020.</li></ul><b>Appendix 2: Derivation of the Effect of Fuel Cost on Total Cost for United Continental and American Airlines</b></p><p><ul><li><b>United Continental Expects Fuel Costs in Q2</b>It was $1.83, up 5% from $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,<b>55% year-on-year increase.</b>Meanwhile, United Continental's operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, including 2.8 cents for fuel,<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, the fuel cost in the second quarter will probably increase the company's operating cost by about 10.2%.</b></li><li>1st quarter<b>American Airlines</b>Operating costs are 14.09 cents per seat per mile, including 1.7 cents for fuel,<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 12.1% of total operating costs. But,</b>American Airlines did not forecast the fuel cost in Q2. From the data of other airlines, there is little change in Q1 compared with Q2. We might as well assume that Q2 is the same as Q1 at $1.7, which is about 54.6% higher than that in Q2 2020 at $1.1. Same as above,<b>In the second quarter, the cost of aviation fuel in the United States will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 6.6%.</b></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aviation Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: Capacity Improvement, Spring of Aviation Stocks Coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAviation Stocks Q2 Earnings Preview: Capacity Improvement, Spring of Aviation Stocks Coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While the worst of the pandemic is behind us, airline performance has yet to fully recover. The first quarter financial report shows that the performance of the four major airlines in the United States is not very good. However, with the orderly vaccination and the increase of airlines' capacity, the performance in the second quarter may be better than that in the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that the price of crude oil soared by 24% in the whole second quarter. However, the fuel costs of the four major airlines did not change significantly compared with Q1 of 2021. However, because the price of crude oil was at a low level in the second quarter of last year, except Delta Air Lines, the fuel costs of the other three airlines increased significantly year-on-year, which may become the main factor dragging down the performance.</p><p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The earnings report will be released before the U.S. stock market market on July 14th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market on July 20th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>Will release earnings before the U.S. stock market on July 22nd.</i></p><p><b>First Quarter Results Review</b></p><p>In the first quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>The performance of stocks is not satisfactory. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental Airlines</a>The performance of miss the market expectation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a>And American Airlines' results were mixed, with revenue falling short of expectations, but net profit exceeding market expectations.</p><p>Even such a performance is backed by salary assistance and company voluntary separation and leave plans to improve airline performance. For example, Southwest Airlines, according to GAAP, had a net profit of 116 million yuan in the first quarter, and after adjustment, it became a net loss of 1.015 billion yuan. The main influencing factor was $1.448 billion related to the Federal Reserve's salary assistance and the resignation and vacation of employees.</p><p>For another example, Delta Air Lines had a net loss of $11.77 in the first quarter, but after adjustment, it became a net loss of $2.256 billion. The most important factor was the confirmation of government subsidies of $1.186 billion. Delta expects the remaining $847 million in grant funding to be confirmed in Q2.</p><p><b>What factors to watch for in the second quarter</b></p><p><b>1. Airlines welcome the increase in capacity</b></p><p>With the expansion of vaccination scope and the gradual control of the epidemic, consumers began to travel more, aviation demand gradually picked up, and the industry situation picked up.<b>One obvious sign of improvement is the improvement of airline capacity.</b></p><p>Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have obviously improved their capacity. Among them,<b>Southwest Airlines</b>In the first quarterly report, it is expected that Q2 capacity will increase by 90% compared with last year, but it has not yet recovered to the level of 2019.<b>It is about 15% lower than the same period in 2019.</b>While<b>American Airlines</b>Expected Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019.</b><i>(Note: ASMs: Available Seat Miles, is the main measure of airline capacity.)</i></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb7412e094d2d4ea1730df9f05ab328\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines Expected Q2 Capacity</span></p><p>Delta and United Continental have been slower to recover capacity. Delta expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; United Continental:</b>United Continental expects, Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% compared to Q2 2019.</b></p><p><b>Another sign of improvement is attendance.</b>Among them, Southwest Airlines expects that Q2 passenger revenue and attendance rate will also increase. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of passenger revenue in April and May will narrow to 40%-45%, which was previously expected to decline by 45%-55% year-on-year; It is expected that the attendance rate in April and May will increase from the previous 70%-75% to 75%-80%.</p><p><b>2. Rising fuel costs may be the main factor dragging down Q2 results</b></p><p>Secondly, it is worth paying attention to the impact of higher oil prices on airline performance. Since the second quarter, crude oil prices have continued to rise. Throughout the second quarter (opening on April 1st to closing on June 30th), WTI crude oil futures rose by about 24%. How does rising oil prices affect airlines? Here, take Southwest Airlines as an example for your reference.</p><p>Southwest operates at 8 cents per seat per mile, including 2.02 cents for fuel, which accounts for about 25 percent of total operating costs. Previously, Southwest Airlines expected the fuel cost in the second quarter to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared with $1.87 in the first quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter change range of-1% to +4%, with little overall change.<i>(Note: Fuel cost is per gallon price, the same below)</i></p><p>But compared to the fuel cost of $1.33 in Q2 2020, that's up 39%-47% year-over-year. In other words, the fuel cost alone will probably raise the company's operating costs by 9.75%-11.75% (compared with Q2 of 2020), which is likely to be the main factor dragging down Southwest Airlines' Q2 performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b04d3389441cbd33f25bf1de0ef696\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The situation is similar for United Continental and American Airlines.</b>According to the above method, it can be calculated that the fuel cost of United Continental Airlines in Q2 2021 will probably increase the company's operating cost by about 10.2%, and that of American Airlines is 6.6%. The derivation steps are placed at the end of the article for your reference.</p><p>But,<b>Delta Air Lines is special. The company expects that the fuel cost in Q2 will drop year-on-year, and the overall performance in the second quarter will be little affected.</b></p><p>Delta expects the fuel cost in Q2 to be between $1.85 and $1.95, compared with $1.91 in Q1, with a quarter-over-quarter change range of-3% to 2%, with little quarter-over-quarter fluctuation. However, Delta's Q2 fuel cost is lower than that of Q2 2.16 in 2020. Maybe Q2 is not much affected by the fuel cost. With the confirmation of the aforementioned government subsidy of $847 million, the performance may exceed market expectations, but the weak recovery of transportation capacity is a hidden danger.<i>(Note: All fuel costs are adjusted prices)</i></p><p><b>How do some airlines see Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Southwest Airlines expects that capacity in Q2 2021 will decrease by approximately 15% compared with the same period in 2019, and April revenue in Q2 will decrease by 40%-45% compared with the same period in 2019; May revenue decreased by 35%-40% compared to the same period in 2019.</li><li><b>Delta:</b>Delta expects,<b>Q2 capacity decreased by approximately 40% compared to the same period in 2019; Revenue ranged from $5.64 billion to $6.27 billion, compared to Q2 2019</b>$12.54 billion,<b>Slip about 50%-55%. Market bookings decreased by approximately 32% as compared to the same period in 2019.</b></li><li><b>United Continental:</b>United Continental expects, Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by approximately 45% as compared to Q2 2019;</b>Revenue in Q2 2021 was approximately $9.12 billion, down approximately 20% from $11.402 billion in Q2 2019; Adjusted EBITDA margin is negative 20%.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>American Airlines expects that Q2 2021<b>Capacity decreased by 20% to 25% compared to Q2 2019;</b>Expected<b>Q2 revenue was approximately $7.176 billion, compared to Q2 2019</b>$11.96 billion,<b>Decrease of about 40%</b>； Excluding exceptional items, net<b>The pre-tax profit margin is between minus 27% and minus 30%.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42a2e057f7e315aabe455694aa844e\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Air Lines Q2 Guidance</span></p><p><b>What does Bloomberg think of airline Q2 results?</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>Bloomberg estimates Southwest Airlines Q2 2021 revenue of $3.86 billion, adjusted net loss of $260 million, adjusted loss per share of $0.38;</li><li><b>Delta:</b>Bloomberg estimates Delta's Q2 2021 revenue of $6.34 billion, adjusted net loss of $920 million, adjusted loss per share of $1.44;</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>Bloomberg estimates that United's Q2 2021 revenue is $5.25 billion, on an adjusted net loss of $1.39 billion, or an adjusted loss of $4.26 per share.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>Bloomberg estimates that American Airlines will post an adjusted net loss of $1.54 billion on Q2 2021 revenue of $7.17 billion and an adjusted loss of $2.4 per share.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c0d0095fc9503e98050caea447e3c3\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Southwest Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7e31093b314cca20e4a9a8db4390b1\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Delta Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374b03072582302bc7fc66d22e8e0170\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>United Continental Airlines</span></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c4a94d52620e95b4d78efa6242f560\" tg-width=\"1518\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>American Airlines</span></p><p><b>Attachment 1: Details of the first quarter results of the four major airlines in the United States</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Southwest Airlines:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Southwest Airlines recorded revenue of US$2.052 billion, compared with market expectations of US$2.057 billion, and US$4.234 billion in the same period last year; Net profit in Q1 2021 was US$116 million, and the market expected net loss of US$734 million, compared with a net loss of US$94 million in the same period last year; Q1 2021 earnings per share were $0.19, and the market was expecting a loss of $1.2, compared to a loss of $0.18 in the year-ago quarter.</li><li><b>Delta Air Lines: First-quarter results missed expectations.</b>In the first quarter of 2021, Delta's revenue was US$4.15 billion, down 52% year-on-year, and miss the market expectation' revenue was US$3.983 billion, compared with US$8.592 billion in the same period last year. The net loss in the first quarter was US$1.177 billion, compared with a loss of US$534 million in the same period last year; Adjusted net loss in the first quarter was $2.256 billion, compared with $326 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss of $3.55 per share in the first quarter, compared to the market expectation of a loss of $3.17 per share.</li><li><b>United Continental:</b>UnitedContinental's revenue and GAAP EPS missed estimates, and non-GAAP EPS beat market expectations. Revenue in Q1 2021 was US$3.221 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6% from US$7.979 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US$1,357 million, narrowing by 20.4% year-on-year from the loss of US$1,704 million in Q2 2020; Loss of $4.29 per share narrowed 37.5% year-over-year from loss of $6.86 per share in Q2 2020.</li><li><b>American Airlines:</b>American Airlines' revenue in the first quarter of 2021 was US$4.008 billion, down 52.9% year-on-year from US$8.515 billion in Q1 2020; The net loss was US$1.250 billion, narrowing by 44.2% year-on-year from the loss of US$2.241 billion in Q1 2020; Loss of $1.97 per share, compared to a loss of $5.26 per share in Q1 2020.</li></ul><b>Appendix 2: Derivation of the Effect of Fuel Cost on Total Cost for United Continental and American Airlines</b></p><p><ul><li><b>United Continental Expects Fuel Costs in Q2</b>It was $1.83, up 5% from $1.74 in the first quarter. Compared to $1.18 in Q2 2020,<b>55% year-on-year increase.</b>Meanwhile, United Continental's operating costs per seat per mile in the first quarter were 15.15 cents, including 2.8 cents for fuel,<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 18.5% of total operating costs. In other words, the fuel cost in the second quarter will probably increase the company's operating cost by about 10.2%.</b></li><li>1st quarter<b>American Airlines</b>Operating costs are 14.09 cents per seat per mile, including 1.7 cents for fuel,<b>Fuel costs accounted for approximately 12.1% of total operating costs. But,</b>American Airlines did not forecast the fuel cost in Q2. From the data of other airlines, there is little change in Q1 compared with Q2. We might as well assume that Q2 is the same as Q1 at $1.7, which is about 54.6% higher than that in Q2 2020 at $1.1. Same as above,<b>In the second quarter, the cost of aviation fuel in the United States will probably increase the company's operating costs by about 6.6%.</b></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411c6ea7e969aee81c7c240d3341abef","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","AAL":"美国航空","DAL":"达美航空","LUV":"西南航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189205572","content_text":"虽然疫情最糟糕的时候已经过去，但航空公司的业绩尚未完全恢复。一季度财报显示，美国四大航空公司的业绩都不太好，不过，随着疫苗有序接种和航空公司提升运力，二季度业绩表现或将好于一季度。\n值得注意的是，原油价格在整个二季度飙升24%，不过四大航空公司的燃油成本看，较2021年Q1环比变化并不明显，但因为原油价格在去年二季度处于低位，除达美航空外，其余三家航空公司燃油成本同比上升明显，或将成为拖累业绩的主要因素。\n达美航空将于7月14日美股盘前发布财报，联合大陆航空将于7月20日美股盘后发布财报，美国航空和西南航空将于7月22日美股盘前发布财报。\n一季度业绩回顾\n一季度，美国航空股的业绩表现均不太理想。其中，达美航空和联合大陆航空的业绩不及市场预期。西南航空和美国航空业绩喜忧参半，营收不及预期，但净利润超出市场预期。\n即便是这样一份业绩，背后还有薪资救助和公司自愿离职和休假计划在提升航空公司业绩表现。比如西南航空，按照GAAP一季度净利润1.16亿元，调整后变成净亏损10.15亿元，其中主要的影响因素就是与美联储薪资救助和员工组员离职和休假相关的14.48亿美元。\n再比如，达美航空一季度净亏损11.77美元，而调整后变成净亏损22.56亿美元，其中最主要的因素也是确认了11.86亿美元的政府补助。达美航空预计，剩余8.47亿美元的补助资金将在Q2确认。\n二季度哪些因素值得关注\n1、航空公司喜迎运力提升\n随着疫苗接种范围扩大以及疫情逐渐控制，消费者开始增加出行，航空需求逐步回升，行业状况回暖，一个明显好转的信号是，航空公司运力的提升。\n运力提升明显的是西南航空和美国航空。其中，西南航空在一季报中表示，预计Q2运力较去年提升90%，但仍未恢复至2019年水平，比2019年同期低约15%。而美国航空预计2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%。（注：ASMs：可用座位里程，是衡量航空公司运力的主要指标。）\n西南航空预计Q2运力情况\n达美航空和联合大陆航空运力恢复较慢。达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%。\n另一个好转的信号是上座率。其中，西南航空预计，Q2乘客收入和上座率也将提升，预计4月5月乘客收入同比降幅收窄至40%-45%，此前预计同比下滑45%-55%；预计4月5月的上座率将由此前的70%-75%提升至75%-80%。\n2、燃油成本上升，或是拖累Q2业绩的主要因素\n其次，值得关注的是油价上涨对航空公司业绩的影响。二季度以来，原油价格持续走高，整个二季度（4月1日开盘至6月30日收盘），WTI原油期货涨约24%。油价上涨对航空公司影响几何？在此以西南航空为例，给大家做参考。\n西南航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为8美分，其中燃油成本为2.02美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为25%。此前，西南航空预计二季度燃油成本在1.85美元至1.95美元之间，较一季度的1.87美元，环比变动区间为-1%到+4%，总体变化不大。（注：燃油成本采用每加仑价格，下同）\n但与2020年Q2 1.33美元的燃油成本相比，同比上升39%-47%。换句话说，仅燃油成本一项，大概会将公司的运营成本拉高9.75%-11.75%（较2020年Q2），很可能是拖累西南航空Q2业绩的主要因素。\n\n联合大陆航空和美国航空的情况也类似。按照上述方法，可以计算，2021年Q2联合大陆航空的燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%，美国航空这一数字是6.6%，推导步骤放在了文末，供大家查阅。\n不过，达美航空比较特殊，公司预计Q2燃油成本同比惊现下滑，整体二季度业绩受影响不大。\n达美航空预计Q2的燃油成本在1.85美元-1.95美元之间，较Q1的1.91美元，环比变动区间在-3%到2%，环比波动不大。不过，达美航空Q2燃油成本较2020年Q2 2.16的成本是下降的，可能Q2受燃油成本影响不大，叠加前面提及的8.47亿美元政府补助的确认，或许业绩能超出市场预期，不过运力恢复较弱是一个隐患。（注：燃料成本均为调整后价格）\n部分航空公司如何看Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：西南航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年同期下降约15%，Q2中的4月营收较2019年同期减少40%-45%；5月营收较2019年同期减少35%-40%。\n达美航空：达美航空预计，Q2运力较2019年同期下降约40%；营收在56.4亿美元-62.7亿美元之间，较2019年Q2的125.4亿美元，下滑约50%-55%。市场预定量较2019年同期下降约32%。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空预计，2021年Q2运力较2019年Q2下降约45%；2021年Q2营收约为91.2亿美元，较2019年Q2的114.02亿美元下降约20%；调整后EBITDA利润率为负的20%。\n美国航空：美国航空预计，2021年Q2的运力较2019年Q2下降 20%至 25%；预计Q2营收约为71.76亿美元，较2019年Q2的119.6亿美元，下降约40%；不包括特殊项目净额的税前利润率在负27%至负30%之间。\n\n达美航空二季度业绩指引\n\n彭博社如何看航空公司Q2业绩？\n\n西南航空：彭博社预计，西南航空2021年Q2营收38.6亿美元，调整后净亏损2.6亿美元，调整后每股亏损0.38美元；\n达美航空：彭博社预计，达美航空2021年Q2营收63.4亿美元，调整后净亏损9.2亿美元，调整后每股亏损1.44美元；\n联合大陆航空：彭博社预计，联合大陆航空2021年Q2营收52.5亿美元，调整后净亏损13.9亿美元，调整后每股亏损4.26美元。\n美国航空：彭博社预计，美国航空2021年Q2营收71.7亿美元，调整后净亏损15.4亿美元，调整后每股亏损2.4美元。\n\n西南航空\n达美航空\n联合大陆航空\n美国航空\n附1：美国四大航空公司一季度业绩明细\n\n西南航空：2021年一季度，西南航空营收20.52亿美元，市场预期20.57亿美元，去年同期42.34亿美元；2021年Q1净利润1.16亿美元，市场预期净亏损7.34亿美元，去年同期净亏损0.94亿美元；2021年Q1每股盈利0.19美元，市场预期亏损1.2美元，去年同期亏损0.18美元。\n达美航空：一季度业绩不及预期。2021年一季度，达美航空营收41.5亿美元，同比下滑52%且不及市场预期的39.83亿美元，去年同期85.92亿美元。一季度净亏损11.77亿美元，去年同期亏损5.34亿美元；一季度调整后净亏损22.56亿美元，去年同期为3.26亿美元；一季度调整后每股亏损3.55美元，市场预期每股亏损3.17美元。\n联合大陆航空：联合大陆航空营收和GAAP每股收益不及预期，非GAAP每股收益超出市场预期。2021年Q1营收32.21亿美元，较2020年Q1的79.79亿美元，同比下降59.6%；净亏损13.57亿美元，较2020年Q2的亏损17.04亿美元，同比收窄20.4%；每股亏损4.29美元，较2020年Q2的每股亏损6.86美元，同比收窄37.5%。\n美国航空：美国航空2021年一季度营收40.08亿美元，较2020年Q1的85.15亿美元，同比下降52.9%；净亏损12.50亿美元，较2020年Q1亏损的22.41亿美元，同比收窄44.2%；每股亏损1.97美元，较2020年Q1每股亏损5.26美元。\n\n附2：联合大陆航空和美国航空燃油成本对总成本的影响推导\n\n联合大陆航空预计Q2的燃料成本为1.83美元，较一季度1.74美元，环比增加5%。与2020年Q2的1.18美元相比，同比增加55%。与此同时，一季度联合大陆航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为15.15美分，其中燃油成本为2.8美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为18.5%。也就是说，二季度燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约10.2%。\n一季度美国航空每个座位每英里的运营成本为14.09美分，其中燃油成本为1.7美分，燃油成本占总运营成本的比例约为12.1%。不过，美国航空并未预测Q2的燃油成本，从其他航空的数据看，Q1与Q2比变化不大，我们不妨假设Q2与Q1相同为1.7美元，与2020年Q2的1.1美元相比，同比上升约54.6%，同上，二季度美国航空燃油成本大概会将公司运营成本拉升约6.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAL":0.9,"LUV":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"DAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}