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teh1234

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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-17
  n
  The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12 was 412,000.
  6月17日讯，美国6月12日当周初请失业金人数41.2万人，预期35.9万人，前值由37.6万人修正为37.5万人。数据公布后，美股期货跌幅小幅缩窄；现货黄金短线走高近5美元，报1780.64美元/
  The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12 was 412,000.
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-15
  e
  Citigroup joins the chorus of strategists, acknowledging hawkish risks at this week's FOMC meeting.
  花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。　　此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。
  Citigroup joins the chorus of strategists, acknowledging hawkish risks at this week's FOMC meeting.
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-14
  se
  Guotai Junan's Strategy: Emerging from the Fog of Inflation, Embracing a Rally in the Light
  本报告导读市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。摘要大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡
  Guotai Junan's Strategy: Emerging from the Fog of Inflation, Embracing a Rally in the Light
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-13
  x
  The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982
  分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。
  The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982
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The previous figure was revised from 376,000 to 375,000.</p><p>Following the data release, the decline in US stock futures narrowed slightly; Spot gold rose nearly $5 in the short term to $1,780.64 per ounce; Spot silver rose $0.10 to $26.29 an ounce.</p><p>Greg Michalowski, an analyst at financial website Forexlive: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States returned above 400,000 in the week ending June 12, a disappointing performance.</p><p><b>Analysts assess the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12:</b>Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly increased by 412,000, the first time in more than a month, but layoffs eased as the economy reopened and there was a shortage of people willing to work. The U.S. economy is facing a labor shortage, although current jobs are still 7.6 million lower than the peak in February 2020. Due to the shortage of childcare facilities, some parents (mainly women) are forced to stay at home.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12 was 412,000.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12 was 412,000.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17 - The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12 was 412,000, compared to the expected 359,000. The previous figure was revised from 376,000 to 375,000.</p><p>Following the data release, the decline in US stock futures narrowed slightly; Spot gold rose nearly $5 in the short term to $1,780.64 per ounce; Spot silver rose $0.10 to $26.29 an ounce.</p><p>Greg Michalowski, an analyst at financial website Forexlive: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States returned above 400,000 in the week ending June 12, a disappointing performance.</p><p><b>Analysts assess the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 12:</b>Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly increased by 412,000, the first time in more than a month, but layoffs eased as the economy reopened and there was a shortage of people willing to work. The U.S. economy is facing a labor shortage, although current jobs are still 7.6 million lower than the peak in February 2020. Due to the shortage of childcare facilities, some parents (mainly women) are forced to stay at home.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5712911a97692958e444016d45d93118","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142509656","content_text":"6月17日讯，美国6月12日当周初请失业金人数41.2万人，预期35.9万人，前值由37.6万人修正为37.5万人。\n数据公布后，美股期货跌幅小幅缩窄；现货黄金短线走高近5美元，报1780.64美元/盎司；现货白银走高0.1美元，现报26.29美元/盎司。\n财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：美国至6月12日当周初请失业金人数重回40万人上方，数据表现令人失望。\n机构评美国至6月12日当周初请失业金人数：上周美国初请失业金人数意外录得41.2万人，为一个多月以来首次录得增加，但在经济重新开放和愿意工作的人员短缺的情况下，裁员情况有所缓解。美国经济正面临着劳动力短缺问题，尽管目前的就业岗位仍比2020年2月的峰值低760万。由于儿童保育设施的短缺，部分父母（主要是女性）只能呆在家中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184571277,"gmtCreate":1623720182899,"gmtModify":1704209465750,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583135297870207","authorIdStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"e","listText":"e","text":"e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184571277","repostId":"2143690738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143690738","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623686635,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143690738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 00:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Citigroup joins the chorus of strategists, acknowledging hawkish risks at this week's FOMC meeting.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143690738","media":"新浪财经","summary":"花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。　　此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The group has joined a growing number of sell-side strategists who believe that Wednesday's FOMC statement poses hawkish risks, with Bill O'Donnell and others stating in a report on Monday that bond prices are now \"more sensitive to hawkish rather than dovish outcomes.\"</p><p>Citi economists believe hawkish risks will emerge on Wednesday, as the FOMC may raise its core inflation forecast for this year \"significantly\" and its 2022 forecast \"slightly.\" In this context, Citigroup believes that bonds are \"overbought and (so far) unlikely to continue on Thursday's price increase.\"</p><p>Specifically regarding the 10-year Treasury Bond yield in the United States, they believe that the one-month correction appears to have been excessive/completely digested, while the 30-year Treasury Bond yield is still in a bull market, but \"the local market is currently overbought\".</p><p>They consider 1.36% for the 10-year period to be a \"major short.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>\"If tested, it should also be a level/trend that forms a resistance level for some results.\"</p><p>previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists joined TD Securities in recommending shorting 10-year positions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategists warned that the Federal Reserve could become hawkish.</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citigroup joins the chorus of strategists, acknowledging hawkish risks at this week's FOMC meeting.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCitigroup joins the chorus of strategists, acknowledging hawkish risks at this week's FOMC meeting.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 00:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The group has joined a growing number of sell-side strategists who believe that Wednesday's FOMC statement poses hawkish risks, with Bill O'Donnell and others stating in a report on Monday that bond prices are now \"more sensitive to hawkish rather than dovish outcomes.\"</p><p>Citi economists believe hawkish risks will emerge on Wednesday, as the FOMC may raise its core inflation forecast for this year \"significantly\" and its 2022 forecast \"slightly.\" In this context, Citigroup believes that bonds are \"overbought and (so far) unlikely to continue on Thursday's price increase.\"</p><p>Specifically regarding the 10-year Treasury Bond yield in the United States, they believe that the one-month correction appears to have been excessive/completely digested, while the 30-year Treasury Bond yield is still in a bull market, but \"the local market is currently overbought\".</p><p>They consider 1.36% for the 10-year period to be a \"major short.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>\"If tested, it should also be a level/trend that forms a resistance level for some results.\"</p><p>previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists joined TD Securities in recommending shorting 10-year positions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategists warned that the Federal Reserve could become hawkish.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-15/doc-ikqciyzi9622401.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645ed615aa2b041257c1347b443010ec","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-15/doc-ikqciyzi9622401.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2143690738","content_text":"花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。\n花旗经济学家认为周三将出现鹰派风险，因FOMC今年的核心通胀预测可能“大幅”上调，“2022年的可能略微上调”；在这一情境下，花旗认为债券“已超买，且（到目前为止）难以在周四的价格上涨基础上继续”。\n具体到美国10年期国债收益率，他们认为1个月的回调看起来现在已过头/完全消化，而30年期国债收益率仍处于牛市通道，但“目前本地超买”。\n他们认为10年期的1.36%是“主要空头趋势线”，“如果经过测试，也应该是对一些结果构成阻力位的一个水平/趋势”。\n此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185590430,"gmtCreate":1623658321020,"gmtModify":1704207973136,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583135297870207","authorIdStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"se","listText":"se","text":"se","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185590430","repostId":"1111262113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111262113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623657143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111262113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Guotai Junan's Strategy: Emerging from the Fog of Inflation, Embracing a Rally in the Light","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111262113","media":"陈显顺策略研究","summary":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡","content":"<p><b>Introduction to this report</b></p><p><b>The inflation issue, which the market is concerned about, is being confirmed as the expectation curve shifts from speculative to real, valuations have broken free from negative constraints, and the market will continue to rise after fluctuating and accumulating momentum. In terms of sector allocation, we are optimistic about securities firms, new energy vehicles, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and emerging consumer sectors.</b></p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Market trend analysis: Breaking free from the constraints of inflation, the volatility will not last long, followed by a rally.</b>This week, the market continued to fluctuate narrowly around 3600 points. We believe that after consolidating momentum, it will rise again, driven by the accelerated decline in the denominator risk assessment.<b>1) Denominator side: The accelerating trend of inflation is certain to drive the risk assessment to continue to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise in PPI, the market has been shrouded in inflation fog, and the market is unable to escape a volatile pattern under high uncertainty. By late May, uncertainties surrounding issues such as inflation and liquidity, which were of concern to the market, gradually narrowed, driving a marginal decline in risk assessments and the market reaching its first stage. With the May economic data released, domestic inflation has reached its peak this year as expected, the market is about to emerge from the inflation fog, and the decline in risk assessments is accelerating again. Historical market trends in both China and the United States have shown that core equity indices are likely to rise as uncertainty decreases. Coupled with the fact that risk-free interest rates are easy to lower but difficult to rise, the momentum on the denominator side is strong.<b>2) Numerator side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakening profits.</b>The market ignored the possibility of negative earnings growth in the fourth quarter, but negative earnings growth can actually be a blessing in disguise. Historically, when profit growth has turned from positive to negative, liquidity has always been characterized by easing rather than tightening. We believe that negative profit growth can help alleviate the pressure on the denominator side, and there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve is shifting from speculative to real, uncertainty is converging, and risk assessments are continuing to decline.</b>Domestic PPI peaked in May with a high year-on-year increase of 9.0% due to the low base. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is unlikely to surpass that of May, and the high point for the year has already been reached. Looking at the policy-anchored CPI, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May fell short of expectations, and the central bank's assessment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also indicates that inflation is not a concern. In the United States, the CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May as expected, and the peak for the year is expected to arrive in June. With the successive emergence of inflation peaks in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is shifting from virtual to real and is becoming more certain. In addition, the issue of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward phase has basically ended. It is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the market's biggest concerns, inflation and credit contraction, are determined, their impact on valuations will shift from negative constraints to a smooth transition. The future upward adjustment of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the face of downward uncertainty, but we believe it will follow the Federal Reserve more closely and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>With risk assessments declining, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b>Although heavyweight stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, have rebounded recently, the top gainers since May are mostly concentrated in mid-cap blue-chip stocks in niche sectors, not large-cap blue-chip stocks. From a trading perspective, it can also be observed that the true main themes of the market are second-tier mid-cap and growth stocks. Since mid-May, market activity has rebounded, with the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges repeatedly exceeding one trillion yuan. During this round of upward trend in market activity, three distinct characteristics emerged: 1) There was a clear trend of market activity shifting from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market favors growth and balanced stocks, while the preference for value stocks has weakened; 3) Most core assets, represented by the Maotai Index, saw a decrease in trading volume, while the stocks with increased trading volume were mostly growth stocks. The Maotai Index is merely following suit; the current trillion-yuan trading volume has begun to shift more towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks with profit elasticity and early stagflation, and towards continuously high-growth technology stocks.</p><p><b>With a downward risk assessment, buy stocks with significant marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>Based on the degree to which risk assessments benefit industry allocation, the following are key recommendations: 1) Risk assessments are declining, with securities firms/banks being the top choice; 2) Starting point for technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military/pharmaceuticals; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-pandemic era: domestic product consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials/steel/construction engineering; 5) With cost constraints and marginal easing of expectations, midstream manufacturing has rebounded from oversold conditions: home appliances/machinery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><i><b>The market gained momentum amidst fluctuations, followed by a rally.</b></i></p><p><b>Market trend analysis: Breaking free from the constraints of inflation, the volatility will not last long, followed by a rally.</b>This week, the market continued to fluctuate narrowly around 3600 points. We believe that after consolidating momentum, it will rise again, driven by the accelerated decline in the denominator risk assessment. 1）<b>On the denominator side: Accelerating inflation is certain to drive a continued downward trend in risk assessments.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise in PPI, the market has been shrouded in inflation fog, and the market is unable to escape a volatile pattern under high uncertainty. By late May, uncertainties surrounding issues such as inflation and liquidity, which were of concern to the market, gradually narrowed, driving a marginal decline in risk assessments and the market reaching its first stage. With the May economic data released, domestic inflation has reached its peak this year as expected, the market is about to emerge from the inflation fog, and the decline in risk assessments is accelerating again. Historical market performance in both China and the United States shows that as uncertainty decreases, the core equity index is likely to rise. Coupled with the fact that risk-free interest rates are easy to lower but difficult to rise, the momentum on the denominator side is strong. 2）<b>Numerator side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakening earnings.</b>The market ignored the possibility of negative earnings growth in the fourth quarter, but negative earnings growth can actually be a blessing in disguise. Historically, when profit growth has turned from positive to negative, liquidity has always been characterized by easing rather than tightening. We believe that negative profit growth can help alleviate the pressure on the denominator side, and there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>2、</b><i><b>The expectation curve is shifting away from the real economy and towards the virtual economy, with uncertainty continuing</b></i></p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve is shifting from speculative to real, uncertainty is converging, and risk assessments are continuing to decline.</b>Domestic PPI peaked in May with a high year-on-year increase of 9.0% due to the low base. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is unlikely to surpass that of May, and the high point for the year has already been reached. Looking at the policy-anchored CPI, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May fell short of expectations, and the central bank's assessment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also indicates that inflation is not a concern. In the United States, the CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May as expected, and the peak for the year is expected to arrive in June. With the successive emergence of inflation peaks in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is shifting from virtual to real and is becoming more certain. In addition, the issue of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward phase has basically ended. It is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the market's biggest concerns, inflation and credit contraction, are determined, their impact on valuations will shift from negative constraints to a smooth transition. The future upward adjustment of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the face of downward uncertainty, but we believe it will follow the Federal Reserve more closely and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>3、</b><i><b>The quietly changing structure: The real main theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b></i></p><p><b>With risk assessments declining, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b>Although heavyweight stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, have rebounded recently, the top gainers since May are mostly concentrated in mid-cap blue-chip stocks in niche sectors, not large-cap blue-chip stocks. From a trading perspective, it can also be observed that the true main themes of the market are second-tier mid-cap and growth stocks. Since mid-May, market activity has rebounded, with the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges repeatedly exceeding one trillion yuan. During this round of upward trend in market activity, three distinct characteristics emerged: 1) There was a clear trend of market activity shifting from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market favors growth and balanced stocks, while the preference for value stocks has weakened; 3) Most core assets, represented by the Maotai Index, saw a decrease in trading volume, while the stocks with increased trading volume were mostly growth stocks. The Maotai Index is merely following suit. Currently, the trillion-yuan trading volume has begun to shift more towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks with profit elasticity and early stagflation, and towards continuously high-growth technology stocks. With risk assessments declining, we should continue to adhere to the investment strategy of \"mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following\" in the future.</p><p><b>4、</b><i><b>Industry allocation: Securities firms take the lead, followed by growth</b></i></p><p><b>With a downward risk assessment, buy stocks with significant marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>Based on the degree to which risk assessments benefit industry allocation, key recommendations are: 1) Risk assessments are declining, with securities firms being the top choice.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>), bank (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Jiangsu Bank</a>）； 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">EVE Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Farasis Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">pilot intelligent</a>), electronics (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Allwinner Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenyang Aircraft</a>), medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-pandemic era: domestic consumption, emerging consumption, and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Qibin Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>), construction engineering (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) With cost constraints and marginal easing of expectations, midstream manufacturing oversold and rebounded: Home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Vision</a>), machinery.</p><p><b>5、</b><i><b>Five-dimensional data panorama</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1605406758829","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Guotai Junan's Strategy: Emerging from the Fog of Inflation, Embracing a Rally in the Light</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGuotai Junan's Strategy: Emerging from the Fog of Inflation, Embracing a Rally in the Light\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈显顺策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 15:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Introduction to this report</b></p><p><b>The inflation issue, which the market is concerned about, is being confirmed as the expectation curve shifts from speculative to real, valuations have broken free from negative constraints, and the market will continue to rise after fluctuating and accumulating momentum. In terms of sector allocation, we are optimistic about securities firms, new energy vehicles, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and emerging consumer sectors.</b></p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Market trend analysis: Breaking free from the constraints of inflation, the volatility will not last long, followed by a rally.</b>This week, the market continued to fluctuate narrowly around 3600 points. We believe that after consolidating momentum, it will rise again, driven by the accelerated decline in the denominator risk assessment.<b>1) Denominator side: The accelerating trend of inflation is certain to drive the risk assessment to continue to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise in PPI, the market has been shrouded in inflation fog, and the market is unable to escape a volatile pattern under high uncertainty. By late May, uncertainties surrounding issues such as inflation and liquidity, which were of concern to the market, gradually narrowed, driving a marginal decline in risk assessments and the market reaching its first stage. With the May economic data released, domestic inflation has reached its peak this year as expected, the market is about to emerge from the inflation fog, and the decline in risk assessments is accelerating again. Historical market trends in both China and the United States have shown that core equity indices are likely to rise as uncertainty decreases. Coupled with the fact that risk-free interest rates are easy to lower but difficult to rise, the momentum on the denominator side is strong.<b>2) Numerator side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakening profits.</b>The market ignored the possibility of negative earnings growth in the fourth quarter, but negative earnings growth can actually be a blessing in disguise. Historically, when profit growth has turned from positive to negative, liquidity has always been characterized by easing rather than tightening. We believe that negative profit growth can help alleviate the pressure on the denominator side, and there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve is shifting from speculative to real, uncertainty is converging, and risk assessments are continuing to decline.</b>Domestic PPI peaked in May with a high year-on-year increase of 9.0% due to the low base. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is unlikely to surpass that of May, and the high point for the year has already been reached. Looking at the policy-anchored CPI, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May fell short of expectations, and the central bank's assessment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also indicates that inflation is not a concern. In the United States, the CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May as expected, and the peak for the year is expected to arrive in June. With the successive emergence of inflation peaks in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is shifting from virtual to real and is becoming more certain. In addition, the issue of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward phase has basically ended. It is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the market's biggest concerns, inflation and credit contraction, are determined, their impact on valuations will shift from negative constraints to a smooth transition. The future upward adjustment of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the face of downward uncertainty, but we believe it will follow the Federal Reserve more closely and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>With risk assessments declining, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b>Although heavyweight stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, have rebounded recently, the top gainers since May are mostly concentrated in mid-cap blue-chip stocks in niche sectors, not large-cap blue-chip stocks. From a trading perspective, it can also be observed that the true main themes of the market are second-tier mid-cap and growth stocks. Since mid-May, market activity has rebounded, with the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges repeatedly exceeding one trillion yuan. During this round of upward trend in market activity, three distinct characteristics emerged: 1) There was a clear trend of market activity shifting from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market favors growth and balanced stocks, while the preference for value stocks has weakened; 3) Most core assets, represented by the Maotai Index, saw a decrease in trading volume, while the stocks with increased trading volume were mostly growth stocks. The Maotai Index is merely following suit; the current trillion-yuan trading volume has begun to shift more towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks with profit elasticity and early stagflation, and towards continuously high-growth technology stocks.</p><p><b>With a downward risk assessment, buy stocks with significant marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>Based on the degree to which risk assessments benefit industry allocation, the following are key recommendations: 1) Risk assessments are declining, with securities firms/banks being the top choice; 2) Starting point for technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military/pharmaceuticals; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-pandemic era: domestic product consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials/steel/construction engineering; 5) With cost constraints and marginal easing of expectations, midstream manufacturing has rebounded from oversold conditions: home appliances/machinery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><i><b>The market gained momentum amidst fluctuations, followed by a rally.</b></i></p><p><b>Market trend analysis: Breaking free from the constraints of inflation, the volatility will not last long, followed by a rally.</b>This week, the market continued to fluctuate narrowly around 3600 points. We believe that after consolidating momentum, it will rise again, driven by the accelerated decline in the denominator risk assessment. 1）<b>On the denominator side: Accelerating inflation is certain to drive a continued downward trend in risk assessments.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise in PPI, the market has been shrouded in inflation fog, and the market is unable to escape a volatile pattern under high uncertainty. By late May, uncertainties surrounding issues such as inflation and liquidity, which were of concern to the market, gradually narrowed, driving a marginal decline in risk assessments and the market reaching its first stage. With the May economic data released, domestic inflation has reached its peak this year as expected, the market is about to emerge from the inflation fog, and the decline in risk assessments is accelerating again. Historical market performance in both China and the United States shows that as uncertainty decreases, the core equity index is likely to rise. Coupled with the fact that risk-free interest rates are easy to lower but difficult to rise, the momentum on the denominator side is strong. 2）<b>Numerator side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakening earnings.</b>The market ignored the possibility of negative earnings growth in the fourth quarter, but negative earnings growth can actually be a blessing in disguise. Historically, when profit growth has turned from positive to negative, liquidity has always been characterized by easing rather than tightening. We believe that negative profit growth can help alleviate the pressure on the denominator side, and there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>2、</b><i><b>The expectation curve is shifting away from the real economy and towards the virtual economy, with uncertainty continuing</b></i></p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve is shifting from speculative to real, uncertainty is converging, and risk assessments are continuing to decline.</b>Domestic PPI peaked in May with a high year-on-year increase of 9.0% due to the low base. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is unlikely to surpass that of May, and the high point for the year has already been reached. Looking at the policy-anchored CPI, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May fell short of expectations, and the central bank's assessment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also indicates that inflation is not a concern. In the United States, the CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May as expected, and the peak for the year is expected to arrive in June. With the successive emergence of inflation peaks in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is shifting from virtual to real and is becoming more certain. In addition, the issue of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward phase has basically ended. It is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the market's biggest concerns, inflation and credit contraction, are determined, their impact on valuations will shift from negative constraints to a smooth transition. The future upward adjustment of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the face of downward uncertainty, but we believe it will follow the Federal Reserve more closely and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>3、</b><i><b>The quietly changing structure: The real main theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b></i></p><p><b>With risk assessments declining, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real theme is mid-cap blue-chip stocks.</b>Although heavyweight stocks, represented by the Moutai Index, have rebounded recently, the top gainers since May are mostly concentrated in mid-cap blue-chip stocks in niche sectors, not large-cap blue-chip stocks. From a trading perspective, it can also be observed that the true main themes of the market are second-tier mid-cap and growth stocks. Since mid-May, market activity has rebounded, with the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges repeatedly exceeding one trillion yuan. During this round of upward trend in market activity, three distinct characteristics emerged: 1) There was a clear trend of market activity shifting from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market favors growth and balanced stocks, while the preference for value stocks has weakened; 3) Most core assets, represented by the Maotai Index, saw a decrease in trading volume, while the stocks with increased trading volume were mostly growth stocks. The Maotai Index is merely following suit. Currently, the trillion-yuan trading volume has begun to shift more towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks with profit elasticity and early stagflation, and towards continuously high-growth technology stocks. With risk assessments declining, we should continue to adhere to the investment strategy of \"mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following\" in the future.</p><p><b>4、</b><i><b>Industry allocation: Securities firms take the lead, followed by growth</b></i></p><p><b>With a downward risk assessment, buy stocks with significant marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>Based on the degree to which risk assessments benefit industry allocation, key recommendations are: 1) Risk assessments are declining, with securities firms being the top choice.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>), bank (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Jiangsu Bank</a>）； 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">EVE Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Farasis Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">pilot intelligent</a>), electronics (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Allwinner Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenyang Aircraft</a>), medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-pandemic era: domestic consumption, emerging consumption, and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Qibin Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>), construction engineering (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) With cost constraints and marginal easing of expectations, midstream manufacturing oversold and rebounded: Home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Vision</a>), machinery.</p><p><b>5、</b><i><b>Five-dimensional data panorama</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA\">陈显顺策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111262113","content_text":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美历史行情中，我们均看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商/银行；2）科技成长起点：新能源车/电子/计算机/军工/医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费/新兴消费/高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材/钢铁/建筑工程；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电/机械。\n\n1、震荡中蓄力，此后是拉升\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美的历史行情中，我们均可以看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n2、预期曲线脱实向虚，不确定性继续收敛\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n3、悄然变化的结构：真正主线在中盘蓝筹\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅只是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。风险评价下行之下，未来应继续坚定“中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随”的投资思路。\n4、行业配置：券商打头，成长接力\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商（东方财富）、银行（江苏银行）；2）科技成长起点：新能源车（赣锋锂业/亿纬锂能/孚能科技/先导智能）、电子（立讯精密/全志科技）、计算机（天阳科技）、军工（中航沈飞）、医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费、新兴消费、高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材（旗滨集团）、钢铁（华菱钢铁）、建筑工程（中钢国际）；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电（海信视像）、机械。\n5、五维数据全景图","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182632234,"gmtCreate":1623567510828,"gmtModify":1704206376736,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583135297870207","authorIdStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"x","listText":"x","text":"x","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182632234","repostId":"1186135122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186135122","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623465545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186135122?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 10:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186135122","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find that the buying power of the dollar is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of Wolf Street, a US financial website, analyzed the data of the US Department of Labor and said that with the explosive increase of 5% year-on-year in the US CPI in May, the purchasing power of the US dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in US dollars, including labor force) dropped by 0.8% in May.<b>In the past three months, it fell by a sharp 2.4%, the biggest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of the year-over-year base effect, three-month purchasing power decreased by 9.5%.</p><p><b>The loss of the purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, durable goods prices soared 10.3% year-on-year, especially used cars, which rose 30%, and new car prices also rose 3.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase since 2012. According to JD Power, the retail \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new cars jumped to $38,255 in May, while ATP has increased 28% over the past seven years and has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + home ownership costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, also improved significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has risen by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year over year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). It is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring the price of the same home over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\".<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of lost purchasing power is no longer likely to recover.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels over a short period of time. This has only happened a few quarters in my life, such as the last few months of 2008 (pictured above). So I'm not hopeful (for a long-term PPP rebound).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-12 10:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find that the buying power of the dollar is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of Wolf Street, a US financial website, analyzed the data of the US Department of Labor and said that with the explosive increase of 5% year-on-year in the US CPI in May, the purchasing power of the US dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in US dollars, including labor force) dropped by 0.8% in May.<b>In the past three months, it fell by a sharp 2.4%, the biggest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of the year-over-year base effect, three-month purchasing power decreased by 9.5%.</p><p><b>The loss of the purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, durable goods prices soared 10.3% year-on-year, especially used cars, which rose 30%, and new car prices also rose 3.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase since 2012. According to JD Power, the retail \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new cars jumped to $38,255 in May, while ATP has increased 28% over the past seven years and has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + home ownership costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, also improved significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has risen by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year over year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). It is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring the price of the same home over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\".<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of lost purchasing power is no longer likely to recover.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels over a short period of time. This has only happened a few quarters in my life, such as the last few months of 2008 (pictured above). So I'm not hopeful (for a long-term PPP rebound).</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dfa66be8caa6517cb956851a00eed","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186135122","content_text":"作者：林菁扬\n美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。\n美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。\n\n按年率计算，消除同比基数效应影响，三个月购买力下降了9.5%。\n美元购买力丧失主要体现在汽车和房屋市场。\n5月，耐用品价格同比暴涨10.3%，尤其二手车增幅达到30%，新车价格也同比上涨3.3%，为2012年来最大涨幅。据JD Power数据，5月份新车零售“平均交易价格”（ATP）跃升至38255美元，而ATP在过去七年已增长28%，去年6月来更是增速大幅提升。\n\n约占整体CPI三分之一的住房成本（租金+房屋所有成本）也显著提升。其中，租金部分今年以来一直在以恒定0.2%的幅度持续上涨，过去12个月上涨了2.2%；业主“等价租金”也持续上升趋势。\n5月，Case-Shiller房价指数同比上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最强劲增长（紫色线）。这是一种更为现实的房价通胀衡量方法，衡量同一套房屋价格随时间的变化。\n\nWolf Richter认为，“当前购买力的下跌是永久性的，而未来购买力还将出现永久性的暴跌”，即便明年5月CPI由同比5%降至4%，这部分丧失的购买力也不再具有恢复的可能。\n\n 唯一可能“暂时”事件是，物价水平一小段时间内的下跌。这在我一生中只发生过几个季度，例如2008年的最后几个月（如上图所示）。所以我（对长期购买力反弹）不抱希望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UUP":0.9,"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}