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程導绅

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- 程導绅程導绅
  ·2021-07-29
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- 程導绅程導绅
  ·2021-07-29
  Hi
  Taper is approaching, so there's little panic.
  美联储7月FOMC会议要点总结：①经济已经朝削减QE取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估，与“进一步重大进展”（“substantial further progress”）的门槛仍有距离但也更近了
  Taper is approaching, so there's little panic.
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- 程導绅程導绅
  ·2021-06-28
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- 程導绅程導绅
  ·2021-06-27
  ??
  3.2 billion yuan in margin calls occurred in 24 hours, cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board, and mining rigs were sold off at 50% off.
  北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了
  3.2 billion yuan in margin calls occurred in 24 hours, cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board, and mining rigs were sold off at 50% off.
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It is still far from but closer to the threshold of \"substantial further progress\"; ② It downplayed market concerns that the Delta variant virus was dragging down the economic outlook; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ Future QE reductions will most likely be carried out simultaneously by Treasury Bond and MBS; ⑤ It is reiterated that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Establish a standing repurchase facility (SRF), which is divided into primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal from this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up for tapering QE purchases. Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and rigid, market expectations will often be overestimated, triggering sharp fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"tapering panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this policy cycle, the Federal Reserve's policy exit and communication models have strived for gradualness, smoothness, and transparency.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of this meeting's statement is that \"some progress has been made on the economic goals and will be further assessed at future meetings.\" The market's concerns about the Delta variant virus have not shaken the Federal Reserve's optimistic expectations for the overall economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the pandemic on the economy \"may be weaker with each wave.\"</p><p>Given that the threshold for Taper is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the job gap is filled. As of June, the job gap caused by this round of the pandemic still lacked 6.76 million jobs, with a recovery rate of 70%. However, when the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the job gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If an average of about 690,000 new jobs are created per month in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market has always been concerned about the pace of Taper, and it seems that expectations are gradually aligning. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Fed will begin to hint at considering Taper, and may officially announce Taper in late 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous assessment that it will be announced at the December FOMC meeting and implemented starting in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting marked the first time Fed officials had in-depth internal discussions regarding the potential timing of future tapering and the varieties involved. Although there is no internal consensus on when tapering will begin, the preference is to simultaneously cut U.S. Treasury Bond and MBS once tapering occurs.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014, the Federal Reserve reduced its monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting and officially ended QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. In comparison, the Federal Reserve's monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is $120 billion. If the monthly quota is reduced by $15 billion, it will take about 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will roughly end in Q3 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding inflation, this meeting reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve has largely abandoned its prediction of when inflation will peak. However, its bottom line is to maintain long-term inflation expectations and prevent them from getting out of control. This is why inflation data has continuously exceeded expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is unlikely to affect the future inflation path.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve's most watched inflation expectation indicator is the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines inflation expectations implied by professional forecasters, household surveys, and the market. Professional forecasters and businesses often make more accurate inflation predictions than household surveys or market pricing. The CIE rose from 1.94% in Q3 2020 to 2.05% in Q2 2021, and has not yet surged in line with inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in US Treasury yields over the past month was mainly due to economic concerns caused by the outbreak of the mutated virus and the stalemate in fiscal stimulus. The reason it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the trading level (short covering, pension fund stock-bond rebalancing, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields falling below 1.20%, we need to consider whether US Treasury yields is overly pessimistic about the US economic outlook, especially considering that the 1.20% level in late January and early February corresponds to the fact that US fiscal stimulus and large-scale vaccination have not yet been implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering that US Treasury yields is currently overly pessimistic about the economic outlook, the driving force of technical factors is unsustainable, and the pattern of a rebound potential of about 50 basis points in the US Treasury bear market, the downside potential for US Treasury yields in the second half of the year over 10 years is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown in employment recovery in Q3 2013 led the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its September-October policy meetings. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 38 basis points from a low of 2.51% on 10.23 to 2.89% before the December policy meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced on December 18th and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose again by 15 basis points to a year-to-date high of 3.04%, before returning to a downward trend in 2014 (due to global economic concerns).</p><p>Based on historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release Taper signals in the third quarter, the 10-year US Treasury yields may rise again and gradually peak after the official announcement of Taper, but it will be difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to an upward channel, the slope is unlikely to be too steep and will most likely fluctuate within a wide range. In addition, the market has very strong expectations for the Fed's exit from easing, so the situation that severely impacted the equity market due to rising US Treasury yields in February and March of the year will not occur again. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1620296573452","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taper is approaching, so there's little panic.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaper is approaching, so there's little panic.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">覃汉投资笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary of key points from the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting: ① The economy has made some progress towards reducing QE and will continue to be assessed at future meetings. It is still far from but closer to the threshold of \"substantial further progress\"; ② It downplayed market concerns that the Delta variant virus was dragging down the economic outlook; ③ Reiterate that inflation is temporary and there is no need to panic; ④ Future QE reductions will most likely be carried out simultaneously by Treasury Bond and MBS; ⑤ It is reiterated that it is too early to talk about rate hike; ⑥ Establish a standing repurchase facility (SRF), which is divided into primary dealers in the United States and overseas central banks.</p><p>The most important signal from this meeting is undoubtedly that the Federal Reserve has begun to warm up for tapering QE purchases. Policy communication is an art. If it is too abrupt and rigid, market expectations will often be overestimated, triggering sharp fluctuations in asset prices, similar to the \"tapering panic\" in May 2013. Therefore, in this policy cycle, the Federal Reserve's policy exit and communication models have strived for gradualness, smoothness, and transparency.</p><p>The most important change in the wording of this meeting's statement is that \"some progress has been made on the economic goals and will be further assessed at future meetings.\" The market's concerns about the Delta variant virus have not shaken the Federal Reserve's optimistic expectations for the overall economic outlook. Powell believes that the impact of the pandemic on the economy \"may be weaker with each wave.\"</p><p>Given that the threshold for Taper is \"further significant progress\" in the economy, we recommend focusing on the extent to which the job gap is filled. As of June, the job gap caused by this round of the pandemic still lacked 6.76 million jobs, with a recovery rate of 70%. However, when the Federal Reserve announced Taper in December 2013, the recovery rate of the job gap caused by the financial crisis was 88%. If an average of about 690,000 new jobs are created per month in the second half of the year, it will not be difficult to achieve a similar gap recovery rate by the end of December.</p><p>The market has always been concerned about the pace of Taper, and it seems that expectations are gradually aligning. It is not surprising that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at this meeting. The market generally expects that the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole in August or the FOMC meeting in September will be the time when the Fed will begin to hint at considering Taper, and may officially announce Taper in late 2021 or early 2022. We maintain our previous assessment that it will be announced at the December FOMC meeting and implemented starting in 2022.</p><p>According to Powell, the July FOMC meeting marked the first time Fed officials had in-depth internal discussions regarding the potential timing of future tapering and the varieties involved. Although there is no internal consensus on when tapering will begin, the preference is to simultaneously cut U.S. Treasury Bond and MBS once tapering occurs.</p><p>Looking back at the last round of Taper, in 2014, the Federal Reserve reduced its monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) by $10 billion at each meeting and officially ended QE at the October meeting, which took 10 months to complete. In comparison, the Federal Reserve's monthly purchase quota (US Treasury Bond + MBS) is $120 billion. If the monthly quota is reduced by $15 billion, it will take about 8 months to stop QE. If Taper is announced in December, it will roughly end in Q3 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6292deabf5669e43200af797b2a273c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding inflation, this meeting reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve has largely abandoned its prediction of when inflation will peak. However, its bottom line is to maintain long-term inflation expectations and prevent them from getting out of control. This is why inflation data has continuously exceeded expectations, but the Federal Reserve still firmly believes that \"inflation is temporary\". Powell also emphasized that \"if short-term price increases do not affect long-term inflation expectations, then it is unlikely to affect the future inflation path.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve's most watched inflation expectation indicator is the Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), which combines inflation expectations implied by professional forecasters, household surveys, and the market. Professional forecasters and businesses often make more accurate inflation predictions than household surveys or market pricing. The CIE rose from 1.94% in Q3 2020 to 2.05% in Q2 2021, and has not yet surged in line with inflation data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dbded41058141db61cdcc3c83bff66\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The decline in US Treasury yields over the past month was mainly due to economic concerns caused by the outbreak of the mutated virus and the stalemate in fiscal stimulus. The reason it once fell below 1.2% was mainly due to technical factors at the trading level (short covering, pension fund stock-bond rebalancing, strong overseas demand, etc.).</p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields falling below 1.20%, we need to consider whether US Treasury yields is overly pessimistic about the US economic outlook, especially considering that the 1.20% level in late January and early February corresponds to the fact that US fiscal stimulus and large-scale vaccination have not yet been implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6a7a8ca1c0e4573b2e48caa2fd25614\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Considering that US Treasury yields is currently overly pessimistic about the economic outlook, the driving force of technical factors is unsustainable, and the pattern of a rebound potential of about 50 basis points in the US Treasury bear market, the downside potential for US Treasury yields in the second half of the year over 10 years is limited.</p><p>Looking back at 2013-2014, the slowdown in employment recovery in Q3 2013 led the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its September-October policy meetings. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 38 basis points from a low of 2.51% on 10.23 to 2.89% before the December policy meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced on December 18th and implemented it in early 2014. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose again by 15 basis points to a year-to-date high of 3.04%, before returning to a downward trend in 2014 (due to global economic concerns).</p><p>Based on historical experience, we believe that as the Federal Reserve begins to release Taper signals in the third quarter, the 10-year US Treasury yields may rise again and gradually peak after the official announcement of Taper, but it will be difficult to break through the previous high of 1.70-1.80%.</p><p>Therefore, even if the US Treasury yields returns to an upward channel, the slope is unlikely to be too steep and will most likely fluctuate within a wide range. In addition, the market has very strong expectations for the Fed's exit from easing, so the situation that severely impacted the equity market due to rising US Treasury yields in February and March of the year will not occur again. (End)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eedbbd7ea3f91182f1395c52927f0f6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml\">覃汉投资笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/market/2021-07-29/doc-ikqciyzk8314250.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155908504","content_text":"美联储7月FOMC会议要点总结：①经济已经朝削减QE取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估，与“进一步重大进展”（“substantial further progress”）的门槛仍有距离但也更近了；②淡化了市场对Delta变异病毒拖累经济前景的担忧；③重申通胀是暂时的，无需感到恐慌；④未来削减QE大概率会是国债和MBS一起减；⑤再次强调谈论加息过早；⑥设立常备回购便利工具（SRF），分为面向美国国内一级交易商和海外央行。\n本次会议最重要的信号，无疑就是美联储开始为削减QE购买（Taper）进行预热。政策沟通是门艺术，过于突兀与生硬，市场预期往往就会超调，引发资产价格剧烈波动，类似2013年5月的“削减恐慌”。所以，在本轮政策周期中，美联储政策退出和沟通的模式都是力求渐进、平滑和透明。\n本次会议声明措辞中，最重要的变化就是“经济目标已经取得一些进展并将在未来的会议上继续评估”。市场担忧的Delta变异病毒，并没有动摇美联储对经济前景整体乐观的预期，鲍威尔认为疫情对经济的冲击“可能一波比一波弱”。\n考虑到Taper的门槛是经济取得“进一步重大进展”，我们建议关注就业缺口的填补程度。本轮疫情造成的就业缺口截止6月仍差676万人未填补，恢复率为70%，而2013年12月美联储宣布Taper时，金融危机造成的就业缺口恢复率为88%，若下半年平均每月新增就业约69万人，年底12月实现类似的缺口恢复率难度不大。\n市场关心的始终是Taper的节奏，目前来看预期也逐渐走向一致。本次会议美联储按兵不动并不意外，市场普遍预期是8月Jackson Hole的央行年会或者9月FOMC会议将会是美联储开始暗示考虑Taper的时点，并且可能在2021年底或2022年初正式宣布Taper。我们则维持此前的判断，即12月FOMC会议宣布并在2022年开始执行。\n根据鲍威尔所言，7月FOMC会议是美联储官员首次针对未来Taper可能的时点和涉及品种进行深度内部讨论，虽然内部尚未对何时开始Taper形成共识，但倾向于一旦Taper就同时削减美国国债和MBS。\n回顾上一轮Taper，2014年美联储在每次会议上将每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）减少100亿美元，并在10月会议上正式停止QE，历时10个月完成。对比当下，美联储每月购买额度（美国国债+MBS）为1200亿美元，若按照每月减少额度150亿美元，则大致需要8个月实现停止QE，如果12月宣布Taper，那么大致2022Q3结束。\n\n通胀方面，本次会议再次确认了美联储基本放弃对通胀何时见顶的预测，但它的底线是守住长期通胀预期不能失控，这也是为何通胀数据连续超预期，美联储却依然坚信“通胀是暂时性”的原因。鲍威尔也强调“如果短期的物价水平上涨不会影响长期的通胀预期，那么它就很可能不会影响未来的通胀路径”。\n美联储最关注的通胀预期指标——共同通胀预期指数（CIE），该指数综合了专业预测者、家庭调查和市场隐含的通胀预期指标，而专业预测者和企业对通胀的预测往往比家庭调查或市场定价更准确。CIE从2020Q3的1.94%上行到2021Q2的2.05%，目前并没有跟随通胀数据而飙升。\n\n过去一个月美债利率之所以下行，主要来自于变异病毒肆虐叠加财政刺激僵局所引发的经济担忧，而之所以一度跌破1.2%，主要来自交易层面的技术因素（空头回补、养老金股债再平衡、海外需求较强等）。\n在10年美债利率跌破1.20%之际，我们需要思考的是当前美债利率对美国经济前景的定价是否过于悲观，尤其是考虑到此前1月底-2月初1.20%的水平对应的背景是美国财政刺激和疫苗大规模接种都还没有落地。\n\n考虑到当前美债利率对经济前景的定价过于悲观、技术性因素的驱动力量难以持续、以及美债熊市反弹空间约50bp的规律，下半年10年美债利率下行空间有限。\n回顾2013-2014年，2013Q3就业复苏放缓导致美联储在9-10月议息会议上按兵不动，10年美债利率从10.23低点2.51%累计上行38bp至12月议息会议前的2.89%。美联储在12.18正式官宣并在2014年初执行，10年美债利率再次上行15bp至年内高点3.04%见顶，随后在2014年重回下降通道（全球经济担忧）。\n参考历史经验，我们认为，随着美联储在三季度开始释放Taper信号，10年美债利率可能会再次上行，并在Taper官宣落地后逐步见顶，但很难突破前期高点1.70-1.80%。\n所以，接下来即使美债利率重回上行通道，但是斜率很难太陡，大概率处于宽幅区间震荡格局，再加上市场对联储退出宽松预期非常充分，所以不会再出现年初2-3月份那种因为美债利率上行对权益市场造成严重冲击的情况。（完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"BND":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"QID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127346059,"gmtCreate":1624837541771,"gmtModify":1703845682609,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127346059","repostId":"2146121007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124650528,"gmtCreate":1624763473364,"gmtModify":1703844687981,"author":{"id":"3586587763605977","authorId":"3586587763605977","name":"程導绅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e557db7a706e6821394c3f5dc700d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586587763605977","idStr":"3586587763605977"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124650528","repostId":"1165215748","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165215748","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624762603,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165215748?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"3.2 billion yuan in margin calls occurred in 24 hours, cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board, and mining rigs were sold off at 50% off.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165215748","media":"中国证券报","summary":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了","content":"<p><div>On the evening of June 26, Beijing time, Bitcoin shares plummeted again, once hitting $30,000, wiping out all the gains accumulated over the past six months. This marks the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of cryptocurrency traders. In just two months, the trend in the cryptocurrency market has reversed dramatically. Cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board. On the evening of June 26, Beijing time, after three days of fluctuating around the $30,000 level, Bitcoin prices plummeted, falling by more than 53.5% from the year's high of $64,900 on April 14. The price has now returned to what Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3.2 billion yuan in margin calls occurred in 24 hours, cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board, and mining rigs were sold off at 50% off.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3.2 billion yuan in margin calls occurred in 24 hours, cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board, and mining rigs were sold off at 50% off.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On the evening of June 26, Beijing time, Bitcoin shares plummeted again, once hitting $30,000, wiping out all the gains accumulated over the past six months. This marks the second time this month that Bitcoin has fallen to $30,000, completely shattering the confidence of cryptocurrency traders. In just two months, the trend in the cryptocurrency market has reversed dramatically. Cryptocurrencies collapsed across the board. On the evening of June 26, Beijing time, after three days of fluctuating around the $30,000 level, Bitcoin prices plummeted, falling by more than 53.5% from the year's high of $64,900 on April 14. The price has now returned to what Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76545b6ea7eb27730ee55d40b45ce15","relate_stocks":{"EBON":"亿邦国际"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FhLRf65HJ8EHrcKXMRJu1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165215748","content_text":"北京时间6月26日晚间，比特币再度暴跌，一度下探30000美元，将这半年积累的涨幅悉数跌去。\n这也是比特币本月第二次跌至30000美元，彻底粉碎了炒币者的信心。\n仅仅两个月，虚拟货币市场的风向就出现了大逆转。\n虚拟货币全线崩溃\n北京时间6月26日晚间，在30000美元一线拉扯3天之后，比特币价格急转直下，较4月14日的年内最高价64900美元，跌超53.5%。目前价格已回归至今年初特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克力推比特币之前的水平。\n\n图片来源：欧易\nUAlCoin数据显示，虚拟货币合约一日内共爆仓超32亿元人民币，超3万多头遭血洗。\n\n图片来源：UAlCoin\nglassnode数据显示，比特币交易活跃地址数量已创下今年以来新低，比特币的交易活跃度回落至今年的底部区间，关注的人数逐渐减少。\n\n图片来源：alternative.me\nalternative.me显示，6月27日，虚拟货币交易情绪指数降至20，处于极度恐慌状态。最近一周，市场的恐慌情绪格外严重。\n百度搜索指数显示，比特币搜索量继续降低，市场关注度明显回落。\n虚拟货币投资者林海（化名）对中国证券报记者表示：“比特币刚开始跌的时候，炒币群里还一片谈笑风生，大家都在调侃什么时候加仓。自从这个月暴跌50%之后，群里都静悄悄的，大部分人不吭声了，群聊人数也开始减少，感觉快解散了。”\n有虚拟货币行情分析人士指出，比特币新增地址数近期持续下降，市场增量资金明显减少。从技术图上看，比特币上攻受阻，短线回落，考虑到上方抛压较大，短期走势逼近前期新低，反弹持续乏力，做空情绪浓厚，后续有深度回调的风险。\n特斯拉或抛售离场\n最近一周比特币价格徘徊在30000美元附近。分析师表示，很难预见比特币会出现转机。\n摩根大通团队分析师称，近期的市场是具有挑战性的。数据表明，虚拟货币的抛售是为了弥补损失，可能仍有大量低于实际价值的头寸需要通过市场清理。\n近日，摩根大通调查了来自1500多家机构的约3000名美国投资者。绝大多数参与者（占90%）表示他们的公司不会投资数字资产，80%的人声称他们永远不会进入加密货币市场。与此同时，五分之四的受访者表示，希望对虚拟货币采取更严格的限制。\n有市场人士猜测，近期比特币的下跌与马斯克对于比特币摇摆不定的态度有关，因为比特币挖矿消耗了大量能源与特斯拉的环保立场不符，特斯拉或将抛售比特币并拒绝比特币作为支付方式。目前相对脆弱的市场引发了散户的恐慌情绪。\n2月上旬，特斯拉宣布购入价值15亿美元的比特币，并透露将接受比特币作为付款方式。\n多位加密数字资产业内人士认为，这一消息是推动比特币价格从20000美元快速飙涨至60000美元的重要催化剂。然而，如今比特币的价格已经跌破当初特斯拉买入时的成本价，为特斯拉二季度的财报埋下隐患。\n根据市场预估，今年第一季度特斯拉开始投资比特币，并从中获得超过1亿美元的投资收益，占公司净利润将近四分之一。但比特币价格在二季度出现大幅调整，价格直接腰斩，若特斯拉未出售所持比特币，或造成接近1亿美元的投资损失。\n矿机遭5折甩卖\n币价腰斩，虚拟“挖矿”活动也不再活跃。\n虚拟货币“挖矿”活动的“重镇”四川省全面清理整顿挖矿行为，已经有一周时间。bytetree矿工生产和抛售累积数据数据显示，最近一周，矿工生产量和抛售量均出现下跌，显示出矿工抛售情绪明显上升，这或意味着更多矿工选择关机。\n\n图片来源：bytetree\n抛售矿机成为很多矿工的选择。大量二手矿机涌入市场，导致价格暴跌，与几个月前“一机难求“的火爆场面已是天差地别。\n一位矿机卖家指出, 原来用来交流的矿工群，现在已经用来卖变压器和矿机了。比特大陆S19jPRO-100T型号的矿机售价由7万多元腰斩至3万元左右。“只要能卖出去，什么价格都能接受。”\n\n图片来源：矿机卖家\n由于大量二手现货涌向市场，全球最大的加密货币矿机厂商比特大陆日前宣布，二手市场出货压力很大，为了帮助行业平稳过渡，决定全球暂时停售现货。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EBON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}