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程军霞

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- 程军霞程军霞
  ·2021-08-13
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- 程军霞程军霞
  ·2021-08-13
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  [Change] Blockchain concept stocks strengthened, Canaan Technology rose more than 5%
  8月13日，美股区块链概念股走强，Marathon Digital涨近6%，比特矿业、嘉楠科技涨超5%，Riot Blockchain、第九城市涨超3%，Coinbase涨2.6%。
  [Change] Blockchain concept stocks strengthened, Canaan Technology rose more than 5%
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- 程军霞程军霞
  ·2021-08-13
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  How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!
  摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。
  How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!
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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Blockchain concept stocks strengthened, Canaan Technology rose more than 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13th, U.S. blockchain concept stocks strengthened, and Marathon Digital rose nearly 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTCM\">Bit Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up more than 5%, Riot Blockchain,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">9th City</a>It rose more than 3%, and Coinbase rose 2.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b546354590cc08becdbcb98ce0ccca2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38437c39c3981e6d4f1a65407a610d0f","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154544226","content_text":"8月13日，美股区块链概念股走强，Marathon Digital涨近6%，比特矿业、嘉楠科技涨超5%，Riot Blockchain、第九城市涨超3%，Coinbase涨2.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"BTCM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897906314,"gmtCreate":1628865996438,"gmtModify":1676529880679,"author":{"id":"3586987699588218","authorId":"3586987699588218","name":"程军霞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b9e825b205bbccc2c2269e1c534caa","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586987699588218","authorIdStr":"3586987699588218"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897906314","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even when these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to go after US stocks continue to hit a new high? Xiao Mo argues from three aspects: see more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed red across the board. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, and the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In this regard, Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, stressed that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He thinks,<b><u>U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Whereas<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor holdings, signs of receding Delta and normalizing bond-equity correlations</b>We still have reservations about the risk of recent market correction. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and are cautious about stocks that benefit from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"<b>From the position distribution of investors</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions are currently soaring, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds for now, although both major banking institutional brokerages show record levels of total hedge fund exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Setting aside the facts, while Kolanovic expects the level of positions to continue to rise, he said the current position is still near average compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows equity betas (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment vehicles relative to the whole market, separating the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>It has to be admitted that the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan pointed to a more important point that these metrics are close to historical averages — at about 50%, while most revisions historically have occurred when these metrics were above about 80%. Sometimes, though, even when these metrics linger at 100% for as long as a year, the stock market does not suffer a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,<b>Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the Risk of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields</b></p><p>So what is a risk if an investor's position does not pose a risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields could rise sharply (or in relation to tapering, inflation, etc).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between the price of a 10-year bond and the beta coefficient of different equity sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose 1% on average, tech stocks rose 4%, and financials fell 3%. This correlation waned somewhat after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typically negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>In the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (e.g., technology, discretionary assets, communications) pushed the beta index of bond stocks in the S&P 500 to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich sees such a small risk, writing:</p><p>\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that such an event occurs on the condition that stocks and 10-year U.S. bonds suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened, and the recent performance of both the stock and bond markets is very good (the rise of cyclical stocks, the bright results of growth stocks and the rebound of U.S. bond yields), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold is extremely low.\" Kolanovic noted that investors can hedge their risk by holding bonds and stocks for less time, which will likely trigger investors to move away from growth stocks to value stocks to some extent, thus adding to the low risk of widespread stock market selling.</p><p><b>From the risk of Delta</b></p><p>Now that the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what other factors can cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovic said that the main factor holding back the strength of risky assets in the past few months was the spread of the Delta strain, not the peak of economic growth or the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic strongly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should be reassured that the Delta death rate is low in vaccinated countries, and it is very likely that this will be the last wave of Covid.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of people who can infect patients who start to show symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other Potential Risks</b></p><p>Well, positions are on average, taper risks are under control, and the Delta pandemic is receding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the sub-risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that have benefited from COVID, such as renewables and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies and innovation stocks.</p><p>While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>While these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovic believes it won't be enough to destroy the market either.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic expects that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relations of the United States with Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market each month, bullish expectations remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}