To The Moon

Wednesday finished green across the major indices, but I do not read that as an all-clear. The S&P 500 added 0.44% and Nasdaq gained 0.23%. Semiconductors also bounced, yet the structure still looks fragile around support. QQQ has now closed below its 50-day moving average for two consecutive sessions, while the equal-weight S&P is only just holding its trend. SPY looks relatively stronger, but September is not a month in which I want to ignore weakening internals. The more useful lesson today came from the metals screens. GDXJ, SIL, SILJ and XME all showed variations of the same bullish-bounce setup. It is tempting to treat them as four opportunities, but the risk is largely driven by the same underlying theme. Owning several highly correlated positions is not diversification; it

August ended with the major indices looking strong, but I do not see that as an all-clear signal for September. Under the surface, the picture is less comfortable. Market participation has narrowed, small caps have lost momentum, and industrials and transports are beginning to weaken. At the same time, long-term bond yields remain elevated, creating pressure for rate-sensitive areas such as real estate, utilities and regional banks. My conclusion is simple: September is not the month to carry weak positions out of hope or force trades because cash feels unproductive. ## September seasonality is a filter, not a prediction September has a reputation for being difficult, particularly in the second half of the month. I am not treating that historical pattern as an automatic sell signal. Season

**Hawkish words, weak semiconductors, resilient breadth** *Market data reflect the 28 August 2026 US close. Trade-sheet status was updated through 31 August 2026. Any trade examples discussed below are historical case studies, not current trade ideas.* Friday’s index close looked quiet. The S&P 500 slipped just 0.23%, hardly the kind of move that would normally change the market narrative. Under the surface, however, three signals shifted at the same time: 1. Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to put inflation back at the centre of the policy debate. 2. Short-term rate expectations moved sharply higher even though he did not promise a rate hike. 3. Semiconductors weakened far more than the broad index, while equal-weight market breadth remained constructive. Th

# The Fed Did Not Promise a Hike. Markets Repriced the Odds Anyway. **Hawkish words, weak semiconductors, resilient breadth** *Market data reflect the 28 August 2026 US close. Trade-sheet status was updated through 31 August 2026. Any trade examples discussed below are historical case studies, not current trade ideas.* Friday’s index close looked quiet. The S&P 500 slipped just 0.23%, hardly the kind of move that would normally change the market narrative. Under the surface, however, three signals shifted at the same time: 1. Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair to put inflation back at the centre of the policy debate. 2. Short-term rate expectations moved sharply higher even though he did not promise a rate hike. 3. Semiconductors weakened far more than the broa

$ILMN Vertical 260918 190.0C/230.0C$  Trying a limit order at $15 hope to see it go up after this price squeeze 

📅 *Vol Spike and Defensive Stance – Bearish Setup in BJ* (17 Oct 2025) The VIX just popped +23%, and this one looks real. A daily squeeze has fired, and multi-timeframe squeezes are lining up to follow — this isn’t just noise. SPY remains stuck in last Friday’s range, IWM’s breakout is under threat, and HYG is finding resistance right at its 50-day moving average. Financials got hit hard — **XLF** dropped nearly 3% despite solid earnings from the majors. The damage came from regionals, as **ZION** and **WAL** reported credit writedowns, echoing Dimon’s reminder earlier this week: *“there’s never just one cockroach.”* Oil’s slide continues, and though falling yields should offer some relief, the market feels jumpy. I’m focused on protecting my +19% MTD gains and being ultra-selective he

‌$XLI 20251121 151.0 CALL$  ‌Looking to buy a pullback to $5.80

$VXX Vertical 251024 32.0C/37.0C$ ~$1.55 📅 *Smelling Danger – Positioning Stretched, Adding a Hedge* (8 Oct 2025) The S&P and Nasdaq finally pulled back — modestly — with semis and the Mag7 leading the dip. Technically, nothing looks broken yet, but the setup is getting fragile. Positioning is maxed out: retail, hedge funds, and systematic traders are all in. The dollar is coiled with multi-timeframe squeezes and bullish momentum; a breakout toward 103 could pressure overextended trades in gold and equities. Tesla’s wild intraday swings (+4%, -5%, +5.5%, -4.5%) could be early signs of distribution. Meanwhile, the VIX is waking up with a daily squeeze and rising momentum. With all that i

📅 6 Oct 2025 The S&P continues to grind higher, but divergences are starting to creep in — three on the daily chart and five on the QQQs. It’s not a full red flag yet, but worth keeping an open mind as momentum begins to stretch. The breakout in small caps is a big deal. IWM has cleared multi-year resistance, and historically, small-cap leadership tends to support broader market strength. Meanwhile, the dollar still looks heavy, but those multi-timeframe squeezes could flip long and turn into a headwind for risk assets. Same story with the VIX — if those squeezes fire to the upside, volatility could spike quickly. Amid that backdrop, I’m adding a new long setup in **MP**. 🎯 Trading Plan Adding $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ Nov 21 $70 Cutting

📅 *Markets Wobble as Powell Warns – Playing Defense Indices finished in the red on Tuesday. Nothing dramatic — the S&P and NASDAQ each slipped around 0.5% — but Powell’s comments on stubborn inflation and “high equity valuations” rattled sentiment just enough to remind traders how stretched things have become. The concern here is positioning. With the put-call ratio showing everyone piled long, and key cycle dates approaching, I’m trimming risk and going into defense mode through month-end. This isn’t the spot to chase; it’s the spot to protect. I’m not eager to short the strongest leaders, but I am fading weaker names. That’s why I’m targeting NOW with a call credit spread. At the same time, I’ve put on a couple of selective longs, but sizing is controlled. And Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI d