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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2023-08-08
$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2023-05-12
$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$
$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2022-07-11
nice
Is the second quarter earnings season "more bad luck"? The "big test" of US stocks is coming!
自1月触及纪录高位以来,美股已蒸发逾万亿美元,目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕,美股走势或将受到影响。一方面,企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来,鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去,许多企业已
Is the second quarter earnings season "more bad luck"? The "big test" of US stocks is coming!
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2022-06-13
okey
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2022-06-02
nice
又有重磅創新產品!20多家集體出手, 同一天上報!
@中国基金报:
中國基金報記者 若暉 陳墨創新步伐不斷加快,基金行業又有望迎來一類新品種。6月1日正值兒童節,在當日晚間證監會官網披露的新基金上報表格中,集體出現超20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,這或是採用混合估值法的債券基金。所謂混合估值法債券基金,是指基金資產中,部分資產採用市值法估值,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值的一類產品,而此前行業內並沒有這類產品出現。據基金君瞭解,這類產品此前在行業內就已經廣泛探討,有消息稱這類產品主要定位爲面向零售客戶,攤餘成本法的具體投資比例仍在討論之中。多位業內人士認爲,這類產品屬於低風險穩健性品種,一旦獲批,有望給普通投資者在震盪環境下增添新一類低波動、穩健的投資品種。超20家基金公司上報基金行業久未出現單日超20家基金公司上報產品的現象,6月1日,有一類新的產品點燃了基金行業的佈局熱情。證監會網站顯示,6月1日,有超過20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,有業內人士透露,這或是首批採取混合估值法的債券基金。不過,從上報的產品名字上難以分辨哪些基金最終採取混合估值法,具體以基金產品公告爲準。從這些混合估值法基金的產品名稱上看,持有期爲1年的產品最多,達到17只,佔比超65%;還有5只產品持有期爲18個月,有包括易方達、廣發、富國、中歐、泰康在內的公司佈局。持有期最低的爲6個月,爲博時穩瑞6個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金;持有期最長爲39個月,爲惠升和潤39個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金(LOF)。首批上報的產品中,既有行業頭部公司,也有不少次新基金公司,此次超20家基金公司集體上報,顯示出行業對這類的產品的重視。據一位產品人士介紹,這類產品採取混合估值法,也就是說基金資產中,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值,部分資產採用市值法估值,“滿足攤餘成本法估值的就採取攤餘估值。舉個例子,若是1年持有期產品,買入的債券到期日1年以內且一直持有到期,即可採取攤
又有重磅創新產品!20多家集體出手, 同一天上報!
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2022-05-18
okey
Investment tycoons suffered a huge loss of 200 billion, this is the cruelest lesson for VCs
“连大佬都亏得那么多,我们慌啥。”
Investment tycoons suffered a huge loss of 200 billion, this is the cruelest lesson for VCs
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
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2022-05-18
okey
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
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2022-05-14
okey
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
·
2022-05-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
ok
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Yoshizawa
Yoshizawa
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2022-05-14
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
best sia
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USDJPY.FOREX\">$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USDJPY.FOREX\">$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$ </a>","text":"$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/206415932518608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970397084,"gmtCreate":1683896340048,"gmtModify":1683896342692,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$ </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$ </a>","text":"$ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$ $ARMOUR住宅房地产公司(ARR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970397084","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071591480,"gmtCreate":1657550464140,"gmtModify":1676536023870,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071591480","repostId":"2250981695","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250981695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657523307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250981695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250981695","media":"智通财经","summary":"自1月触及纪录高位以来,美股已蒸发逾万亿美元,目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕,美股走势或将受到影响。一方面,企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来,鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去,许多企业已","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Since hitting a record high in January, U.S. stocks have evaporated more than $1 trillion and are still stuck in a bear market. The U.S. stock earnings season will kick off in the second quarter of this week, and the trend of U.S. stocks may be affected.</p><p>On the one hand, companies are increasingly worried about the arrival of an economic recession, and many companies have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last. On the other hand, some companies still firmly believe that the situation of U.S. stocks will improve, and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month.</p><p>Stock valuations have fallen below historical averages, which could attract dip-hunting investors. However, some investors and analysts have warned that the upcoming earnings season may lead to another sharp drop in global stock prices, as corporate earnings estimates are not optimistic due to rising recession risks.</p><p>Many companies cut performance guidance</p><p>The Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike has brought new losses to companies, and sharp rate hike may hit demand, increasing the possibility of an economic recession and putting more pressure on U.S. stock performance guidance. Businesses are increasingly worried about the coming of an economic recession, and many have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last.</p><p>Currently, 103 companies in the S&P Index have issued 2022 Q2 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Of these 103 companies, 72 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 31 companies issued positive EPS guidance. This is the largest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative quarterly EPS guidance since the fourth quarter of 2019 (73 companies). Currently, the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2022 is 70% (72 of 103 companies), which is higher than the 5-year average of 60% and the 10-year average of 67%.</p><p>As of now, 245 companies in the S&P Index have issued full-year 2022 EPS guidance. Of these 245 companies, 136 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 109 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies that issued negative EPS guidance was 56% (136 out of 245).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9feb54c7b999af6434b90d243d0ecaac\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If a company provides guidance (or the midpoint of range guidance) that is lower than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is listed as negative. If the company provides guidance (or the midpoint of the guidance range) that is higher than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is classified as positive.</p><p>Overall, analysts have generally lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter of 2022 in terms of revisions to earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Analysts and businesses have lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter so far. The S&P 500 is expected to record its lowest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>On a per share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter are down 0.9% since March 31. While this decline is lower than the quarterly levels of the 5-year average (-2.3%), 10-year average (-3.3%), and 15-year average (-4.7%), it is also the second largest decline in quarterly EPS estimates since the second quarter of 2020 (-37.0%).</p><p>Due to the higher number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance and downward revisions to earnings estimates, the expected earnings (year-over-year) growth rate for the second quarter of 2022 is now beginning to decline relative to the second quarter. As of today, according to calculations, second-quarter earnings reported by S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the 5.9% forecast on March 31. If the actual earnings growth rate for the second quarter was set at 4.3% annualized, this would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020 (3.8%).</p><p>At present, some companies have begun to lower their performance expectations. For example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>And other companies have announced bleak financial guidance in recent weeks. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Retailers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>In the past four weeks, the second quarter EPS forecast has been lowered the most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3513f8995dafcafdcaee41497c630a8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Microsoft said that due to negative foreign exchange factors, it lowered the company's revenue and profit outlook for the fourth quarter. Microsoft said it expects foreign exchange to bring in a $460 million impact, lowering its earnings-per-share guidance range to between $2.24-$2.32, compared with its previous expectation of $2.28-$2.35. In addition, the company also lowered its revenue guidance range to between US $51.94 billion and US $52.74 billion, compared with the previous expectation of US $52.4 billion and US $53.2 billion.</p><p>On June 7, Target warned investors that the company's profits would be hit in the short term as it cuts unwanted items, cancels orders, and takes aggressive steps to eliminate additional inventory in response to a wave of deep discounts or clearance. Target expects operating margins to be around 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Second, retail giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Also lowered profit forecasts; The company said it expects fiscal 2023 earnings per share to decline by about 1% compared to mid-single-digit growth it previously expected. Gap (GPS.US) also significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022 when it announced its first-quarter results; Revenue is expected to show a low-to-mid single-digit decline compared to the prior year, while EPS under non-GAAP is expected to be in the $0.30-$0.60 range, with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.30 at the high end of the range.</p><p>Cisco lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 per share from its previous estimate of $3.41 to $3.46. Analysts had expected the company to earn $3.44 per share for the full year. According to the latest guidance, full-year revenue growth will be 2% to 3%, lower than the previous expectation of 5.5% to 6.5%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, Cisco expects revenue to decline 1% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share of 76 cents to 84 cents.</p><p>However, some investors and companies still firmly believe that the situation in U.S. stocks will improve and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month. The sectors whose earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 Index have been raised on average in the second quarter include energy, industry, materials, real estate, IT, and healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f23e67c8c115c726514f47e669b085\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier, Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, raised its guidance for fiscal 2022 for the second time. Albemarle currently expects full-year sales of US $5.8 billion to US $6.2 billion in 2022, higher than the previous forecast of US $5.2 billion to US $5.6 billion. Among them, the adjusted EBITDA of the lithium business is expected to increase by about 300% year-on-year, higher than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>When announcing its first-quarter results, it reiterated that it expects sales in 2022 to be US $24.46 billion to US $24.7 billion, flat to 1.0% year-on-year. Taking into account share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022 and improved credit card revenue expectations, the company raised its 2022 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range to $4.53-$4.95, compared with the previous guidance range of $4.13-$4.52.</p><p>However, some investors and analysts have warned that in the upcoming corporate earnings season, some corporate earnings estimates look too optimistic given the rising recession risk.</p><p>Gloomy performance outlook puts pressure on U.S. stocks</p><p>Historically, corporate revenues during recessions tend to fall about 15% year-over-year in real terms, according to Evercore. This means that the S&P 500's total earnings per share could fall from the $227 expected this year to around $192 in 2023. If the current expected earnings multiple of the S&P 500 is left unchanged, the index will drop to around 3,000 points by the end of the year.</p><p>Many investment banks are pessimistic about the impact of this earnings season on the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Said there are already signs that earnings forecasts will be slashed in the coming months. According to its view on the earnings of U.S. stocks, the reasonable point of the S&P 500 index is 3400-3500 points, which is about 11% lower than the current level. \"The bear market is not over unless earnings estimates are lowered to a more reasonable level, or valuations reflect this risk,\" the bank said.</p><p>Absolute Strategic Research surveyed the expectations of investors with a total of $5.2 trillion in assets under management. The likelihood of a rise in global corporate earnings a year from now has fallen to 37%, the lowest level since late 2015, according to the company's data. The survey also found that there is a 53% chance that equity investments will return more than bonds in the next 12 months, a record low.</p><p>Barron's pointed out that the situation of the second quarter earnings season will greatly affect the models used by analysts when making forecasts in the third and fourth quarters. At present, the general expectation is that the profits in the second and third quarters will increase by 11% to 13%. However, if the second quarter earnings performance is poor, or the management lowers the future performance guidance, this may mean that analysts will lower their profit forecasts for the next two quarters, which will put more pressure on the stock market, which has fallen by 21% so far this year.</p><p>Led by Jamie Fahy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Strategists issued a note saying that while global stocks struggled through the first half of 2022, the pain may not be over yet. Investors are already plagued by runaway inflation and the potential impact of tightening policies aimed at controlling inflation, and the prospect of a cut in corporate earnings expectations will be the latest headwind for investors, the bank's strategists wrote in a note. The bank added that resilient corporate earnings have been one of the few factors supporting stocks this year, so any signs of cracks will worry investors, given lower valuations have driven stocks to rebound in recent weeks.</p><p>Francesco Cudrano, an adviser at Simplify Partners, said: \"Corporate earnings are rarely revised downward, and people are still overly optimistic. That's why we expect another revision when we report results, and with this volatility, there is a real risk of getting hit.\" Cudrano said Simplify Partners has been cutting its equity exposure and adding cash, expecting a 15-20% drop in the stock market.</p><p>Eric Johnston, head of equity derivatives and cross-assets at Cantor Fitzgerald, said: \"Negative guidance is likely at any time now. Revenue and profit margins are at risk. We don't think the Fed will stop its rate hike for at least four months, even if economic growth slows down, even if the stock market is sharply lower.\"</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Concerns about corporate performance after the bad mouth of the U.S. economy and a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve may support the view that stocks are still overvalued even after this year's sharp decline. According to Barclays, the stock market may struggle to find a bottom until profit expectations are cut down. This is because high profit expectations \"perceptually compress\" company valuations to levels that could mislead investors.</p><p>All in all, at a time when the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is gradually increasing, it is difficult to reproduce last year's frenzied performance. Under the current environment, the performance prospects of U.S. stock companies are not very optimistic. At present, U.S. stock investors can only expect the upcoming earnings season. Pass slowly. This is another red flag for anyone looking to buy stocks at current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the second quarter earnings season \"more bad luck\"? The \"big test\" of US stocks is coming!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-11 15:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Since hitting a record high in January, U.S. stocks have evaporated more than $1 trillion and are still stuck in a bear market. The U.S. stock earnings season will kick off in the second quarter of this week, and the trend of U.S. stocks may be affected.</p><p>On the one hand, companies are increasingly worried about the arrival of an economic recession, and many companies have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last. On the other hand, some companies still firmly believe that the situation of U.S. stocks will improve, and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month.</p><p>Stock valuations have fallen below historical averages, which could attract dip-hunting investors. However, some investors and analysts have warned that the upcoming earnings season may lead to another sharp drop in global stock prices, as corporate earnings estimates are not optimistic due to rising recession risks.</p><p>Many companies cut performance guidance</p><p>The Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike has brought new losses to companies, and sharp rate hike may hit demand, increasing the possibility of an economic recession and putting more pressure on U.S. stock performance guidance. Businesses are increasingly worried about the coming of an economic recession, and many have lowered their performance guidance given that the better economic situation may not last.</p><p>Currently, 103 companies in the S&P Index have issued 2022 Q2 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Of these 103 companies, 72 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 31 companies issued positive EPS guidance. This is the largest number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative quarterly EPS guidance since the fourth quarter of 2019 (73 companies). Currently, the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative EPS guidance for the second quarter of 2022 is 70% (72 of 103 companies), which is higher than the 5-year average of 60% and the 10-year average of 67%.</p><p>As of now, 245 companies in the S&P Index have issued full-year 2022 EPS guidance. Of these 245 companies, 136 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 109 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies that issued negative EPS guidance was 56% (136 out of 245).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9feb54c7b999af6434b90d243d0ecaac\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If a company provides guidance (or the midpoint of range guidance) that is lower than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is listed as negative. If the company provides guidance (or the midpoint of the guidance range) that is higher than the average EPS the day before the guidance was issued, the guidance is classified as positive.</p><p>Overall, analysts have generally lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter of 2022 in terms of revisions to earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Analysts and businesses have lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter so far. The S&P 500 is expected to record its lowest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>On a per share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter are down 0.9% since March 31. While this decline is lower than the quarterly levels of the 5-year average (-2.3%), 10-year average (-3.3%), and 15-year average (-4.7%), it is also the second largest decline in quarterly EPS estimates since the second quarter of 2020 (-37.0%).</p><p>Due to the higher number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance and downward revisions to earnings estimates, the expected earnings (year-over-year) growth rate for the second quarter of 2022 is now beginning to decline relative to the second quarter. As of today, according to calculations, second-quarter earnings reported by S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with the 5.9% forecast on March 31. If the actual earnings growth rate for the second quarter was set at 4.3% annualized, this would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2020 (3.8%).</p><p>At present, some companies have begun to lower their performance expectations. For example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>And other companies have announced bleak financial guidance in recent weeks. Wherein,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Retailers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>In the past four weeks, the second quarter EPS forecast has been lowered the most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3513f8995dafcafdcaee41497c630a8\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Microsoft said that due to negative foreign exchange factors, it lowered the company's revenue and profit outlook for the fourth quarter. Microsoft said it expects foreign exchange to bring in a $460 million impact, lowering its earnings-per-share guidance range to between $2.24-$2.32, compared with its previous expectation of $2.28-$2.35. In addition, the company also lowered its revenue guidance range to between US $51.94 billion and US $52.74 billion, compared with the previous expectation of US $52.4 billion and US $53.2 billion.</p><p>On June 7, Target warned investors that the company's profits would be hit in the short term as it cuts unwanted items, cancels orders, and takes aggressive steps to eliminate additional inventory in response to a wave of deep discounts or clearance. Target expects operating margins to be around 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Second, retail giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Also lowered profit forecasts; The company said it expects fiscal 2023 earnings per share to decline by about 1% compared to mid-single-digit growth it previously expected. Gap (GPS.US) also significantly lowered its full-year guidance for fiscal year 2022 when it announced its first-quarter results; Revenue is expected to show a low-to-mid single-digit decline compared to the prior year, while EPS under non-GAAP is expected to be in the $0.30-$0.60 range, with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.30 at the high end of the range.</p><p>Cisco lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $3.29 to $3.37 per share from its previous estimate of $3.41 to $3.46. Analysts had expected the company to earn $3.44 per share for the full year. According to the latest guidance, full-year revenue growth will be 2% to 3%, lower than the previous expectation of 5.5% to 6.5%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, Cisco expects revenue to decline 1% to 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share of 76 cents to 84 cents.</p><p>However, some investors and companies still firmly believe that the situation in U.S. stocks will improve and have raised their profit forecasts for 2022 in the past month. The sectors whose earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 Index have been raised on average in the second quarter include energy, industry, materials, real estate, IT, and healthcare.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f23e67c8c115c726514f47e669b085\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier, Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, raised its guidance for fiscal 2022 for the second time. Albemarle currently expects full-year sales of US $5.8 billion to US $6.2 billion in 2022, higher than the previous forecast of US $5.2 billion to US $5.6 billion. Among them, the adjusted EBITDA of the lithium business is expected to increase by about 300% year-on-year, higher than previously expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">Macy's</a>When announcing its first-quarter results, it reiterated that it expects sales in 2022 to be US $24.46 billion to US $24.7 billion, flat to 1.0% year-on-year. Taking into account share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022 and improved credit card revenue expectations, the company raised its 2022 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range to $4.53-$4.95, compared with the previous guidance range of $4.13-$4.52.</p><p>However, some investors and analysts have warned that in the upcoming corporate earnings season, some corporate earnings estimates look too optimistic given the rising recession risk.</p><p>Gloomy performance outlook puts pressure on U.S. stocks</p><p>Historically, corporate revenues during recessions tend to fall about 15% year-over-year in real terms, according to Evercore. This means that the S&P 500's total earnings per share could fall from the $227 expected this year to around $192 in 2023. If the current expected earnings multiple of the S&P 500 is left unchanged, the index will drop to around 3,000 points by the end of the year.</p><p>Many investment banks are pessimistic about the impact of this earnings season on the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Said there are already signs that earnings forecasts will be slashed in the coming months. According to its view on the earnings of U.S. stocks, the reasonable point of the S&P 500 index is 3400-3500 points, which is about 11% lower than the current level. \"The bear market is not over unless earnings estimates are lowered to a more reasonable level, or valuations reflect this risk,\" the bank said.</p><p>Absolute Strategic Research surveyed the expectations of investors with a total of $5.2 trillion in assets under management. The likelihood of a rise in global corporate earnings a year from now has fallen to 37%, the lowest level since late 2015, according to the company's data. The survey also found that there is a 53% chance that equity investments will return more than bonds in the next 12 months, a record low.</p><p>Barron's pointed out that the situation of the second quarter earnings season will greatly affect the models used by analysts when making forecasts in the third and fourth quarters. At present, the general expectation is that the profits in the second and third quarters will increase by 11% to 13%. However, if the second quarter earnings performance is poor, or the management lowers the future performance guidance, this may mean that analysts will lower their profit forecasts for the next two quarters, which will put more pressure on the stock market, which has fallen by 21% so far this year.</p><p>Led by Jamie Fahy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Strategists issued a note saying that while global stocks struggled through the first half of 2022, the pain may not be over yet. Investors are already plagued by runaway inflation and the potential impact of tightening policies aimed at controlling inflation, and the prospect of a cut in corporate earnings expectations will be the latest headwind for investors, the bank's strategists wrote in a note. The bank added that resilient corporate earnings have been one of the few factors supporting stocks this year, so any signs of cracks will worry investors, given lower valuations have driven stocks to rebound in recent weeks.</p><p>Francesco Cudrano, an adviser at Simplify Partners, said: \"Corporate earnings are rarely revised downward, and people are still overly optimistic. That's why we expect another revision when we report results, and with this volatility, there is a real risk of getting hit.\" Cudrano said Simplify Partners has been cutting its equity exposure and adding cash, expecting a 15-20% drop in the stock market.</p><p>Eric Johnston, head of equity derivatives and cross-assets at Cantor Fitzgerald, said: \"Negative guidance is likely at any time now. Revenue and profit margins are at risk. We don't think the Fed will stop its rate hike for at least four months, even if economic growth slows down, even if the stock market is sharply lower.\"</p><p>conclusion</p><p>Concerns about corporate performance after the bad mouth of the U.S. economy and a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve may support the view that stocks are still overvalued even after this year's sharp decline. According to Barclays, the stock market may struggle to find a bottom until profit expectations are cut down. This is because high profit expectations \"perceptually compress\" company valuations to levels that could mislead investors.</p><p>All in all, at a time when the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession is gradually increasing, it is difficult to reproduce last year's frenzied performance. Under the current environment, the performance prospects of U.S. stock companies are not very optimistic. At present, U.S. stock investors can only expect the upcoming earnings season. Pass slowly. This is another red flag for anyone looking to buy stocks at current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752714.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752714.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2250981695","content_text":"自1月触及纪录高位以来,美股已蒸发逾万亿美元,目前仍陷于熊市。本周二季度美股财报季将拉开序幕,美股走势或将受到影响。一方面,企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来,鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去,许多企业已下调业绩指引。而另一方面,也有一些企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善,并在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。股票估值已经跌破历史平均水平,这可能会吸引逢低买入的投资者。但是,一些投资者和分析师警告称,即将到来的财报季可能导致全球股价再度大幅下跌,因衰退风险不断加大,企业盈利预估不乐观。众多企业下调业绩指引美联储大幅加息给企业带来了新的损失,大幅加息可能会打击需求,增加了经济衰退的可能性,给美股业绩指引带来了更大的压力。企业越来越担心经济衰退的到来,鉴于较好的经济形势可能不会持续下去,许多企业已下调了业绩指引。目前,标普指数中有103家公司已经发布了2022年Q2每股收益(EPS)指引。在这103家公司中,72家公司发布了负面EPS指引,31家公司发布了正面EPS指引。这是自2019年第四季度(73家)以来,标普500指数企业中发布季度EPS负面指引企业数量最多的一次。目前,标普500指数中发布2022年第二季度负面EPS指引的公司比例为70%(103家公司中有72家),高于60%的5年平均水平和67%的10年平均水平。截至目前,标普指数中有245家公司已经发布了2022年全年EPS指引。在这245家公司中,136家公司发布了负面EPS指引,109家公司发布了正面EPS指引。发布负面EPS指引的公司比例为56%(245家公司中的136家)。如果一家公司提供的指引(或区间指引的中点)低于该指引发布前一天的平均EPS,则该指引被列为负面指引。如果该公司提供的指引(或指引区间的中点)高于该指引发布前一天的平均EPS,则该指引被归为正面指引。总体上而言,在对标普500指数成份股公司盈利预期的修正方面,分析师总体下调了2022年第二季度的盈利预期。迄今为止,分析师和企业已经下调了第二季度的盈利预期。标普500指数预计将录得自2020年第四季度以来最低的盈利增长。按每股计算,自3月31日以来,第二季度预期收益下降了0.9%。虽然这一降幅低于5年平均水平(-2.3%)、10年平均水平(-3.3%)和15年平均水平(-4.7%)的季度水平,但也是自2020年第二季度(-37.0%)以来季度每股收益预期的第二大降幅。由于发布负面EPS指引的公司数量增多,以及对盈利预期的向下修正,2022年第二季度的预期盈利(同比)增长率现在相对于第二季度开始有所下降。截至今日,根据计算,标普500指数成分公司将公布的二季度盈利预计将同比增长4.3%,而3月31日的预期为5.9%。如果将二季度的实际盈利年化增长率定为4.3%,这将是自2020年第四季度(3.8%)以来的最低水平。目前已有一些企业开始下调业绩预期。例如,微软和思科等公司近几周都宣布了黯淡的财务指引。其中,波音、零售商塔吉特在过去四周中二季度EPS预期被下调的幅度居前。微软表示,受外汇负面因素影响,下调公司第四财季的营收和盈利前景。微软表示,预计外汇将带来4.6亿美元的影响,将每股收益指引区间下调至2.24-2.32美元之间,此前预期为2.28-2.35美元。另外,该公司还下调营收指引区间至519.4亿-527.4亿美元之间,此前预期为524亿-532亿美元。6月7日,塔吉特警告投资者称,公司的利润将在短期内受到冲击,因为该公司将削减不需要的品项,取消订单,并采取积极措施消除额外库存,以应对一波大幅打折或清仓的商品潮。塔吉特预计第二季度的营业利润率将在2%左右。其次,零售巨头沃尔玛也下调了利润预期;该公司表示,预计与此前预期的中个位数增长相比,预期2023财年每股收益将下降约 1%。Gap(GPS.US)也在公布一季度业绩时大幅下调2022财年全年指引;与上年相比,预计营收将出现中低单位数下降,而在非公认会计准则下的每股收益预计将在0.30-0.60美元之间,分析师普遍预期区间高端为1.30美元。思科将其全年收益预期从此前的每股3.41美元至3.46美元下调至3.29美元至3.37美元。分析师此前预计该公司全年每股收益为3.44美元。按最新的指引计算,全年营收增长将为2%至3%,低于此前5.5%至6.5%的预期。展望22财年的第四季度,思科预计营收将下降1%至5.5%,调整后每股收益为76美分至84美分。不过,也有一些投资者和企业仍坚信美股的情况会出现改善,在过去一个月上调了2022年的盈利预测。在标普500指数盈利预期二季度平均已上调的板块依次包括能源、工业、材料、房地产、IT、医疗保健。此前,全球最大的锂生产商美国雅宝第二次上调了其2022财年业绩指引。美国雅宝目前预计2022年全年的销售额为58亿-62亿美元,高于此前预期的52亿-56亿美元。其中,锂业务调整后EBITDA预计同比增长约300%,高于此前预期。梅西百货在公布一季度业绩时重申,预计2022年销售额为244.6亿至247亿美元,同比持平至增长1.0%。考虑到2022年第一季度的股票回购,以及信用卡收入预期的改善,公司将2022年调整后摊薄每股收益指引区间上调至4.53-4.95美元,此前的指引区间为4.13-4.52美元。但是,一些投资者和分析师警告称,即将到来的企业财报季,鉴于衰退风险不断加大,一些企业盈利预估看起来过于乐观。黯淡业绩前景令美股承压根据Evercore的数据,从历史上看,经济衰退期间的企业实际收入往往同比下降约15%。这意味着标普500指数的总每股收益可能会从今年预期的227美元降至2023年的192美元左右。如果保持标普500指数当前的预期盈利倍数不变,到今年年底该指数将降至3000点左右。众多投行对此次财报季对美股的走势影响都较为悲观。摩根士丹利表示,已经有迹象显示,未来几个月的盈利预期将被大幅下调。根据其对美股财报盈利的看法,标普500指数的合理点位在3400-3500点,比当前水平低约11%。该行表示:“除非盈利预期下调至更合理的水平,或估值反映出这种风险,否则熊市还没有结束。”Absolute Strategy Research对总管理着5.2万亿美元资产的投资者的预期进行了调查。该公司的数据显示,一年后全球企业盈利上升的可能性已降至37%,为2015年底以来的最低水平。该调查还发现,未来12个月股票投资回报率超过债券的可能性为53%,创下历史新低。巴伦周刊指出,二季度财报季的情况将在很大程度上影响第三和第四季度分析师在做预测时使用的模型,目前的普遍预期是二、三季度利润都会出现11%到13%的增长,但如果二季度财报表现不佳,或管理层下调未来业绩指引,这可能意味着分析师将下调未来两个季度的利润预期,而这将给今年迄今已经下跌了21%的股市带来更多压力。以Jamie Fahy为首的花旗策略师发表报告表示,尽管全球股市艰难度过了2022年上半年,但痛苦可能尚未结束。该行策略师在报告中写道,投资者已经被失控的通胀和旨在控制通胀的紧缩政策的潜在影响所困扰,而企业盈利预期被下调的前景将是投资者面临的最新阻力。该行补充道,具备弹性的企业盈利是今年为数不多支撑股市的因素之一,因此,考虑到较低的估值推动股市在近几周反弹,任何出现裂痕的迹象都会令投资者感到担忧。Simplify Partners顾问Francesco Cudrano表示:“企业盈利很少向下修正,人们仍然过于乐观。这就是为什么我们预计在公布业绩时将出现另一次修正,而且在这种波动下,真的有遭受打击的风险。”Cudrano表示,Simplify Partners一直在削减股票敞口,增加现金,预计股市将下跌15-20%。Cantor Fitzgerald股票衍生品和交叉资产主管Eric Johnston称:“现在任何时候都可能出现负面指引。收入和利润率都面临风险。我们认为美联储至少在四个月内不会停止加息,即使经济成长放缓,即使股市大幅走低。”结论在美国经济唱衰声不断、美联储大幅加息后,对企业业绩的担忧可能会支持这样一种观点,即即使在今年大幅下跌之后,股市估值仍过高。根据巴克莱的说法,在利润预期被调低之前,股市可能很难找到底部。这是因为高利润预期会“感观上压缩”公司估值,使其达到可能误导投资者的水平。总而言之,在美国经济陷入衰退的风险渐渐变大之际,去年狂热的业绩很难再现,在当前环境下,美股企业的业绩前景不太乐观,目前美股投资者只能期望即将到来的财报季平缓渡过。对于任何想以当前水平购买股票的人来说,这是另一个危险信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052982562,"gmtCreate":1655109342956,"gmtModify":1676535563222,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okey","listText":"okey","text":"okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052982562","repostId":"2243350401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050086178,"gmtCreate":1654106498594,"gmtModify":1676535394572,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050086178","repostId":"617137598","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":617137598,"gmtCreate":1654099920000,"gmtModify":1676533174876,"author":{"id":"4107925732032840","authorId":"4107925732032840","name":"中国基金报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498a5e5426489a3835f596f93ba03b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4107925732032840","authorIdStr":"4107925732032840"},"themes":[],"title":"又有重磅創新產品!20多家集體出手, 同一天上報!","htmlText":"中國基金報記者 若暉 陳墨創新步伐不斷加快,基金行業又有望迎來一類新品種。6月1日正值兒童節,在當日晚間證監會官網披露的新基金上報表格中,集體出現超20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,這或是採用混合估值法的債券基金。所謂混合估值法債券基金,是指基金資產中,部分資產採用市值法估值,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值的一類產品,而此前行業內並沒有這類產品出現。據基金君瞭解,這類產品此前在行業內就已經廣泛探討,有消息稱這類產品主要定位爲面向零售客戶,攤餘成本法的具體投資比例仍在討論之中。多位業內人士認爲,這類產品屬於低風險穩健性品種,一旦獲批,有望給普通投資者在震盪環境下增添新一類低波動、穩健的投資品種。超20家基金公司上報基金行業久未出現單日超20家基金公司上報產品的現象,6月1日,有一類新的產品點燃了基金行業的佈局熱情。證監會網站顯示,6月1日,有超過20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,有業內人士透露,這或是首批採取混合估值法的債券基金。不過,從上報的產品名字上難以分辨哪些基金最終採取混合估值法,具體以基金產品公告爲準。從這些混合估值法基金的產品名稱上看,持有期爲1年的產品最多,達到17只,佔比超65%;還有5只產品持有期爲18個月,有包括易方達、廣發、富國、中歐、泰康在內的公司佈局。持有期最低的爲6個月,爲博時穩瑞6個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金;持有期最長爲39個月,爲惠升和潤39個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金(LOF)。首批上報的產品中,既有行業頭部公司,也有不少次新基金公司,此次超20家基金公司集體上報,顯示出行業對這類的產品的重視。據一位產品人士介紹,這類產品採取混合估值法,也就是說基金資產中,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值,部分資產採用市值法估值,“滿足攤餘成本法估值的就採取攤餘估值。舉個例子,若是1年持有期產品,買入的債券到期日1年以內且一直持有到期,即可採取攤","listText":"中國基金報記者 若暉 陳墨創新步伐不斷加快,基金行業又有望迎來一類新品種。6月1日正值兒童節,在當日晚間證監會官網披露的新基金上報表格中,集體出現超20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,這或是採用混合估值法的債券基金。所謂混合估值法債券基金,是指基金資產中,部分資產採用市值法估值,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值的一類產品,而此前行業內並沒有這類產品出現。據基金君瞭解,這類產品此前在行業內就已經廣泛探討,有消息稱這類產品主要定位爲面向零售客戶,攤餘成本法的具體投資比例仍在討論之中。多位業內人士認爲,這類產品屬於低風險穩健性品種,一旦獲批,有望給普通投資者在震盪環境下增添新一類低波動、穩健的投資品種。超20家基金公司上報基金行業久未出現單日超20家基金公司上報產品的現象,6月1日,有一類新的產品點燃了基金行業的佈局熱情。證監會網站顯示,6月1日,有超過20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,有業內人士透露,這或是首批採取混合估值法的債券基金。不過,從上報的產品名字上難以分辨哪些基金最終採取混合估值法,具體以基金產品公告爲準。從這些混合估值法基金的產品名稱上看,持有期爲1年的產品最多,達到17只,佔比超65%;還有5只產品持有期爲18個月,有包括易方達、廣發、富國、中歐、泰康在內的公司佈局。持有期最低的爲6個月,爲博時穩瑞6個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金;持有期最長爲39個月,爲惠升和潤39個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金(LOF)。首批上報的產品中,既有行業頭部公司,也有不少次新基金公司,此次超20家基金公司集體上報,顯示出行業對這類的產品的重視。據一位產品人士介紹,這類產品採取混合估值法,也就是說基金資產中,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值,部分資產採用市值法估值,“滿足攤餘成本法估值的就採取攤餘估值。舉個例子,若是1年持有期產品,買入的債券到期日1年以內且一直持有到期,即可採取攤","text":"中國基金報記者 若暉 陳墨創新步伐不斷加快,基金行業又有望迎來一類新品種。6月1日正值兒童節,在當日晚間證監會官網披露的新基金上報表格中,集體出現超20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,這或是採用混合估值法的債券基金。所謂混合估值法債券基金,是指基金資產中,部分資產採用市值法估值,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值的一類產品,而此前行業內並沒有這類產品出現。據基金君瞭解,這類產品此前在行業內就已經廣泛探討,有消息稱這類產品主要定位爲面向零售客戶,攤餘成本法的具體投資比例仍在討論之中。多位業內人士認爲,這類產品屬於低風險穩健性品種,一旦獲批,有望給普通投資者在震盪環境下增添新一類低波動、穩健的投資品種。超20家基金公司上報基金行業久未出現單日超20家基金公司上報產品的現象,6月1日,有一類新的產品點燃了基金行業的佈局熱情。證監會網站顯示,6月1日,有超過20家基金公司上報一類定期開放式債券基金,有業內人士透露,這或是首批採取混合估值法的債券基金。不過,從上報的產品名字上難以分辨哪些基金最終採取混合估值法,具體以基金產品公告爲準。從這些混合估值法基金的產品名稱上看,持有期爲1年的產品最多,達到17只,佔比超65%;還有5只產品持有期爲18個月,有包括易方達、廣發、富國、中歐、泰康在內的公司佈局。持有期最低的爲6個月,爲博時穩瑞6個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金;持有期最長爲39個月,爲惠升和潤39個月定期開放債券型證券投資基金(LOF)。首批上報的產品中,既有行業頭部公司,也有不少次新基金公司,此次超20家基金公司集體上報,顯示出行業對這類的產品的重視。據一位產品人士介紹,這類產品採取混合估值法,也就是說基金資產中,部分資產採用攤餘成本法估值,部分資產採用市值法估值,“滿足攤餘成本法估值的就採取攤餘估值。舉個例子,若是1年持有期產品,買入的債券到期日1年以內且一直持有到期,即可採取攤","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bae70e086c96406aa27ffda73617b54d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617137598","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029742594,"gmtCreate":1652833363418,"gmtModify":1676535170354,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okey","listText":"okey","text":"okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029742594","repostId":"1164486275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164486275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652779475,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164486275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 17:24","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investment tycoons suffered a huge loss of 200 billion, this is the cruelest lesson for VCs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164486275","media":"投资界","summary":"“连大佬都亏得那么多,我们慌啥。”","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Yang Jiyun</p><p>\"Even the boss has lost so much, why should we panic?\"</p><p>In the first four months of 2022, Tiger Global Management has lost US $17 billion (about 115.3 billion yuan), which is the worst page in the history of Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>Coincidentally, SoftBank Masayoshi Son has also caused the biggest hole in the history of venture capital-as of March 31 this year, SoftBank had a net loss of 90 billion yuan, of which the chief culprit was SoftBank Vision Fund.</p><p>The results are similar, and the process of tracing them is strikingly similar. In the past few years, SoftBank and Tiger have swept the primary market. The most impressive thing is that they are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and do not care about valuations.</p><p>Today, however, no one pays for the once madness.</p><p>This lesson is also worthy of reflection by all VCs in China-how generous the investment was at the beginning, how ugly it may be to settle accounts later.</p><p><b>The worst in history: Tiger and Softbank lost 200 billion</b></p><p>In 2022, there is a high probability that it will become the worst year in the history of Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>This time, Tiger Global Fund has lost approximately US $17 billion (approximately RMB 115.3 billion) in the primary and secondary markets, which is astonishing. This figure means that Tiger Global Fund has lost all 48% of the profits earned in the 2020 liquidity bull market.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don't want to explain anymore. Tiger Global acknowledged in a recent letter to investors: \"We don't believe in excuses, so we won't make any excuses.\"</p><p>After careful exploration, the main reason for Tiger's collapse this time is the dismal performance of technology stocks. Since 2022, the U.S. stock market has continued to be turbulent and unpredictable. In April this year, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 13%, and the index has fallen by more than 25% this year. Tiger Global Fund, which has a heavy position in technology stocks, naturally suffered huge losses.</p><p>Founded in 2001, Tiger Global Fund's business now spans the primary and secondary markets-not only a world-famous hedge fund, but also a famous predator in the primary market.</p><p>Since 2003, Tiger Global Fund has entered China. When it comes to achievements in China, we have to mention Chen Xiaohong, a former partner of Tiger Global Fund and general manager of China, a legendary venture capital woman who hardly gives interviews. When it comes to the record of Tiger Global Fund in the primary market, the most well-known one is the classic battle against JD.com.</p><p>According to the data, in 2010, Tiger Global Fund invested US $250 million in JD.com. In 2014, when JD.com went public, Tiger's final return was as high as more than US $7 billion. Since then, Tiger Global Fund has been active in the venture capital circle, making aggressive and radical moves.</p><p>At present, SoftBank is strikingly similar to Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>Last Thursday, Masayoshi Son announced the latest financial report of SoftBank Group in Tokyo, Japan. The figures are equally striking: as of March 31, SoftBank Group's net loss in fiscal year 2021 was 1.7 trillion yen (about 90 billion yuan). Among them, the net loss of the Vision Fund in fiscal year 2021 is as high as 2.64 trillion yen (approximately RMB 140 billion).</p><p>Even on a global scale, this is the biggest loss in the history of venture capital, unique.</p><p>To this end, Masayoshi Son announced an official slowdown in investment: SoftBank will adopt a conservative investment pace. He also gave a specific figure: compared with last year, the investment amount will be halved or quartered this year.</p><p>So far, the two fiercest players in the global primary market, Tiger Global Fund and Softbank, have lost a total of about 200 billion yuan in one fell swoop. Looking at the history of venture capital in the past two decades, this is the first time that such a scene appears.</p><p><b>Crazy scene: willing to give a high valuation, dare to give a high valuation now no one pays the bill</b></p><p>To be fair, there are certain macro-environment reasons behind the losses of Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank Tiankeng-the global epidemic, the US dollar rate hike, the Russia-Ukraine war... but it cannot all be blamed by the general environment.</p><p>Anyone familiar with the venture capital circle knows that the two brothers Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank have a striking similarity behind them-they shoot fiercely and throw out a bunch of high-valued star unicorns.</p><p>Looking back on the past year, the scene of Tiger Global Fund sweeping the VC circle is still impressive. How crazy was it at the time? Tiger Global Fund attacks everywhere, often completing due diligence within 24 hours, and investing quickly with a wave of his hand; A new investment can be announced almost every two days, and the opponent has not yet come back to his senses. The fast pace of Tiger Global Fund is staggering, but it is precisely by virtue of its ultra-high scale and ultra-fast investment speed that it has gained its advantage.</p><p>To this end, peers have summarized the VC strategy of Tiger Global Fund: 1. Strike first against good high-tech companies; 2. Act (very) quickly through due diligence and issuance of investment letters of intent; 3. Pay prices (extremely) higher than historical standards or competitors; 4. Participate in company affairs in a (very) lightweight way after investment.</p><p>Such \"tiger speed\" is extremely oppressive. In the first half of 2021, Tiger Global is already the most active investment institution in the world, even surpassing VC funds such as Andreessen Horowitz. There is a data in mid-2021. Among the 166 unicorn companies born in the world, Tiger Fund is the most active, investing in 124 companies-this makes Tiger far ahead of the global limelight market.</p><p>A VC partner in Beijing who has competed with Tiger Global Fund for projects told the investment community, \"If Tiger Fund's style of play really lands in the Chinese market, many VCs will have no chance. Good projects have been attracted by them, and they will pay back enough money quickly. Enough funds, resources and talents to cover the market, and endless money... Winning the market depends on strength.\" He made a metaphor. In the face of that kind of power that can be called nuclear weapons, any petty tricks are meaningless.</p><p>In the final analysis, the biggest feature of this style of play is that it is willing to give high valuations and dares to give high valuations. Tiger Global Fund has its own set of valuation logic, and dares to use a large amount of funds to crush VC/PE who are still hesitating about the valuation model. An investor told a detail-</p><p>At that time, a unicorn was negotiating financing with several leading funds. As a result, Tiger Global Fund gave a valuation 25% higher than everyone else. The CEO of the company couldn't believe it. The feedback said that it should be considered internally first. The Tiger team immediately asked, how much price does it cost? The CEO said that he would not add $100 million, and Tiger immediately agreed.</p><p>It doesn't stop there. In 2020, Tiger revealed that it had purchased equity in ByteDance in the past 21 months and continued to increase its investment ratio in Byte. At that time, Byte was valued at US $180 billion. But what is unexpected is that the investment community learned that in 2021, Tiger Global Fund will invest another 1.1 billion in Byte at a valuation of 460 billion US dollars. 460 billion US dollars, which is significantly higher than Byte's valuation in the primary and secondary markets.</p><p>The styles of Softbank and Tiger are the same keywords: strong, high valuation, and crushing.</p><p>The most obvious example is Masayoshi Son's large and strong investment in Didi. During the negotiations that year, Masayoshi Son left a sentence that was talked about in the venture capital circle, \"Either accept my investment, or I will invest in your competitors.\"</p><p>The biggest loss of SoftBank Vision this time comes from its investment in WeWork, which is a true portrayal of Masayoshi Son's style. Since 2017, the outside world has generally questioned the false proposition of shared office, and Masayoshi Son has desperately invested in WeWork and became its largest external shareholder. At that time, Neumann, founder of Wework, introduced to the outside world, \"When Masayoshi Son first chose to invest in me, it only took him 28 minutes.\"</p><p>For a long time after that, this even became a venture capital myth: an investment that regardless of valuation figures, only needs to trust your intuition.</p><p>Everyone knows the later story. WeWork, which went public at a valuation of 47 billion, failed its IPO in 2019. It was not until October 2021 that WeWork struggled to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange through a SPAC, and its market value was greatly reduced. SoftBank, which has continuously invested US $10.4 billion at high valuations, has suffered serious losses. Today, the overall market value of WeWork is only a few billion dollars, which is less than SoftBank's overall investment in it.</p><p>The list goes on and on. High valuation entered, but the performance after listing was surprising; Affected by the uneasiness in the secondary market, the valuations of a large number of primary market companies betted by Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank Group have also been lowered one after another, which has become an important reason for their losses.</p><p>For example, Tiger once invested US $254 million in payment processing company Toast at a valuation of US $16 billion, but today Toast is only worth US $7.8 billion; Zomato, an Indian food delivery platform that Tiger once invested with a valuation of US $5.8 billion, has now fallen to 5.3 billion in market value... No one paid for the once high valuation.</p><p><b>Those who come out to mix will have to pay it back sooner or later: the cruelest lesson of Chinese VC</b></p><p>Tiger and Softbank lost 200 billion yuan, which is enough to sound a long alarm for domestic VCs.</p><p>In the past few years, the crazy scene of inflated valuations in China's primary market is obvious to all.</p><p>In the past consumption feast, the huge valuation bubble brewing in the primary market made investors unable to see where it came from, but the tide quickly receded, and many companies showed their true colors; There are also semiconductors, where angel round financing of over 100 million yuan is overwhelmed, and skyrocketing valuations have become a common occurrence.</p><p>\"After working for so many years, I suddenly found that the valuation account will not be calculated. Now everyone is grabbing the wind of projects, and there are many'star companies' that dare to value hundreds of millions or billions at the angel stage.\" A partner of a local venture capital institution lamented.</p><p>But yesterday's carnival is becoming today's tears.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the primary market is facing severe difficulties in fundraising and withdrawal. Whether it is A-shares or Hong Kong stocks, the phenomenon of breaking is emerging one after another, which makes it difficult for many VC/PE behind them to hide their losses-the first and second-level valuations are inverted, and investors have even lost money to the B round.</p><p>\"According to the current market value of the secondary market, the valuation of the primary market has to drop again, otherwise how generous the investment is now, how ugly it will be to settle accounts later.\" When VC/PE has valuation anxiety, investment begins to slow down.</p><p>The busy investors in the past collectively pressed the pause button. Zero2IPO Research Center released a set of data-in the first quarter of this year, the market slowed down significantly, and the number and amount of investment cases decreased by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, the money invested this year was nearly half less than that of the same period last year. It can be called halved. Responsible to the LP, the GP no longer takes easy action.</p><p>\"Wait for the valuation to come down\" is the most heard sentence in the investment community in several months. We can vaguely see such a picture: In fact, the vast majority of VC/PE still have surplus grain, but now they cherish bullets more, hold their pockets tightly and wait silently for the project valuation to reach a reasonable position.</p><p>Lowering the valuation has become the most urgent thing for enterprises, otherwise they may run out of ammunition and food.</p><p>We see that the valuation of new consumer unicorns is collectively falling, and projects that couldn't be invested in last year are beginning to let go. Semiconductors have also started, and the number of founders of \"I am willing to accept flat wheels\" has begun to increase. In the fields of innovative drugs and SAAS, valuations have begun to be lowered and return to rationality.</p><p>\"Valuation is a topic that everyone is unwilling to face but must face.\" An investor in Beijing suggested that entrepreneurs should be more realistic in the current environment and not be kidnapped by the company's past valuation.</p><p>This time, Tiger and Softbank taught domestic VCs a vivid and real lesson with bloody lessons-those who come out to mix will have to pay it back sooner or later.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"tzj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investment tycoons suffered a huge loss of 200 billion, this is the cruelest lesson for VCs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestment tycoons suffered a huge loss of 200 billion, this is the cruelest lesson for VCs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-17 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Yang Jiyun</p><p>\"Even the boss has lost so much, why should we panic?\"</p><p>In the first four months of 2022, Tiger Global Management has lost US $17 billion (about 115.3 billion yuan), which is the worst page in the history of Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>Coincidentally, SoftBank Masayoshi Son has also caused the biggest hole in the history of venture capital-as of March 31 this year, SoftBank had a net loss of 90 billion yuan, of which the chief culprit was SoftBank Vision Fund.</p><p>The results are similar, and the process of tracing them is strikingly similar. In the past few years, SoftBank and Tiger have swept the primary market. The most impressive thing is that they are willing to give high valuations, dare to give high valuations, and do not care about valuations.</p><p>Today, however, no one pays for the once madness.</p><p>This lesson is also worthy of reflection by all VCs in China-how generous the investment was at the beginning, how ugly it may be to settle accounts later.</p><p><b>The worst in history: Tiger and Softbank lost 200 billion</b></p><p>In 2022, there is a high probability that it will become the worst year in the history of Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>This time, Tiger Global Fund has lost approximately US $17 billion (approximately RMB 115.3 billion) in the primary and secondary markets, which is astonishing. This figure means that Tiger Global Fund has lost all 48% of the profits earned in the 2020 liquidity bull market.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don't want to explain anymore. Tiger Global acknowledged in a recent letter to investors: \"We don't believe in excuses, so we won't make any excuses.\"</p><p>After careful exploration, the main reason for Tiger's collapse this time is the dismal performance of technology stocks. Since 2022, the U.S. stock market has continued to be turbulent and unpredictable. In April this year, the Nasdaq index fell by more than 13%, and the index has fallen by more than 25% this year. Tiger Global Fund, which has a heavy position in technology stocks, naturally suffered huge losses.</p><p>Founded in 2001, Tiger Global Fund's business now spans the primary and secondary markets-not only a world-famous hedge fund, but also a famous predator in the primary market.</p><p>Since 2003, Tiger Global Fund has entered China. When it comes to achievements in China, we have to mention Chen Xiaohong, a former partner of Tiger Global Fund and general manager of China, a legendary venture capital woman who hardly gives interviews. When it comes to the record of Tiger Global Fund in the primary market, the most well-known one is the classic battle against JD.com.</p><p>According to the data, in 2010, Tiger Global Fund invested US $250 million in JD.com. In 2014, when JD.com went public, Tiger's final return was as high as more than US $7 billion. Since then, Tiger Global Fund has been active in the venture capital circle, making aggressive and radical moves.</p><p>At present, SoftBank is strikingly similar to Tiger Global Fund.</p><p>Last Thursday, Masayoshi Son announced the latest financial report of SoftBank Group in Tokyo, Japan. The figures are equally striking: as of March 31, SoftBank Group's net loss in fiscal year 2021 was 1.7 trillion yen (about 90 billion yuan). Among them, the net loss of the Vision Fund in fiscal year 2021 is as high as 2.64 trillion yen (approximately RMB 140 billion).</p><p>Even on a global scale, this is the biggest loss in the history of venture capital, unique.</p><p>To this end, Masayoshi Son announced an official slowdown in investment: SoftBank will adopt a conservative investment pace. He also gave a specific figure: compared with last year, the investment amount will be halved or quartered this year.</p><p>So far, the two fiercest players in the global primary market, Tiger Global Fund and Softbank, have lost a total of about 200 billion yuan in one fell swoop. Looking at the history of venture capital in the past two decades, this is the first time that such a scene appears.</p><p><b>Crazy scene: willing to give a high valuation, dare to give a high valuation now no one pays the bill</b></p><p>To be fair, there are certain macro-environment reasons behind the losses of Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank Tiankeng-the global epidemic, the US dollar rate hike, the Russia-Ukraine war... but it cannot all be blamed by the general environment.</p><p>Anyone familiar with the venture capital circle knows that the two brothers Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank have a striking similarity behind them-they shoot fiercely and throw out a bunch of high-valued star unicorns.</p><p>Looking back on the past year, the scene of Tiger Global Fund sweeping the VC circle is still impressive. How crazy was it at the time? Tiger Global Fund attacks everywhere, often completing due diligence within 24 hours, and investing quickly with a wave of his hand; A new investment can be announced almost every two days, and the opponent has not yet come back to his senses. The fast pace of Tiger Global Fund is staggering, but it is precisely by virtue of its ultra-high scale and ultra-fast investment speed that it has gained its advantage.</p><p>To this end, peers have summarized the VC strategy of Tiger Global Fund: 1. Strike first against good high-tech companies; 2. Act (very) quickly through due diligence and issuance of investment letters of intent; 3. Pay prices (extremely) higher than historical standards or competitors; 4. Participate in company affairs in a (very) lightweight way after investment.</p><p>Such \"tiger speed\" is extremely oppressive. In the first half of 2021, Tiger Global is already the most active investment institution in the world, even surpassing VC funds such as Andreessen Horowitz. There is a data in mid-2021. Among the 166 unicorn companies born in the world, Tiger Fund is the most active, investing in 124 companies-this makes Tiger far ahead of the global limelight market.</p><p>A VC partner in Beijing who has competed with Tiger Global Fund for projects told the investment community, \"If Tiger Fund's style of play really lands in the Chinese market, many VCs will have no chance. Good projects have been attracted by them, and they will pay back enough money quickly. Enough funds, resources and talents to cover the market, and endless money... Winning the market depends on strength.\" He made a metaphor. In the face of that kind of power that can be called nuclear weapons, any petty tricks are meaningless.</p><p>In the final analysis, the biggest feature of this style of play is that it is willing to give high valuations and dares to give high valuations. Tiger Global Fund has its own set of valuation logic, and dares to use a large amount of funds to crush VC/PE who are still hesitating about the valuation model. An investor told a detail-</p><p>At that time, a unicorn was negotiating financing with several leading funds. As a result, Tiger Global Fund gave a valuation 25% higher than everyone else. The CEO of the company couldn't believe it. The feedback said that it should be considered internally first. The Tiger team immediately asked, how much price does it cost? The CEO said that he would not add $100 million, and Tiger immediately agreed.</p><p>It doesn't stop there. In 2020, Tiger revealed that it had purchased equity in ByteDance in the past 21 months and continued to increase its investment ratio in Byte. At that time, Byte was valued at US $180 billion. But what is unexpected is that the investment community learned that in 2021, Tiger Global Fund will invest another 1.1 billion in Byte at a valuation of 460 billion US dollars. 460 billion US dollars, which is significantly higher than Byte's valuation in the primary and secondary markets.</p><p>The styles of Softbank and Tiger are the same keywords: strong, high valuation, and crushing.</p><p>The most obvious example is Masayoshi Son's large and strong investment in Didi. During the negotiations that year, Masayoshi Son left a sentence that was talked about in the venture capital circle, \"Either accept my investment, or I will invest in your competitors.\"</p><p>The biggest loss of SoftBank Vision this time comes from its investment in WeWork, which is a true portrayal of Masayoshi Son's style. Since 2017, the outside world has generally questioned the false proposition of shared office, and Masayoshi Son has desperately invested in WeWork and became its largest external shareholder. At that time, Neumann, founder of Wework, introduced to the outside world, \"When Masayoshi Son first chose to invest in me, it only took him 28 minutes.\"</p><p>For a long time after that, this even became a venture capital myth: an investment that regardless of valuation figures, only needs to trust your intuition.</p><p>Everyone knows the later story. WeWork, which went public at a valuation of 47 billion, failed its IPO in 2019. It was not until October 2021 that WeWork struggled to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange through a SPAC, and its market value was greatly reduced. SoftBank, which has continuously invested US $10.4 billion at high valuations, has suffered serious losses. Today, the overall market value of WeWork is only a few billion dollars, which is less than SoftBank's overall investment in it.</p><p>The list goes on and on. High valuation entered, but the performance after listing was surprising; Affected by the uneasiness in the secondary market, the valuations of a large number of primary market companies betted by Tiger Global Fund and SoftBank Group have also been lowered one after another, which has become an important reason for their losses.</p><p>For example, Tiger once invested US $254 million in payment processing company Toast at a valuation of US $16 billion, but today Toast is only worth US $7.8 billion; Zomato, an Indian food delivery platform that Tiger once invested with a valuation of US $5.8 billion, has now fallen to 5.3 billion in market value... No one paid for the once high valuation.</p><p><b>Those who come out to mix will have to pay it back sooner or later: the cruelest lesson of Chinese VC</b></p><p>Tiger and Softbank lost 200 billion yuan, which is enough to sound a long alarm for domestic VCs.</p><p>In the past few years, the crazy scene of inflated valuations in China's primary market is obvious to all.</p><p>In the past consumption feast, the huge valuation bubble brewing in the primary market made investors unable to see where it came from, but the tide quickly receded, and many companies showed their true colors; There are also semiconductors, where angel round financing of over 100 million yuan is overwhelmed, and skyrocketing valuations have become a common occurrence.</p><p>\"After working for so many years, I suddenly found that the valuation account will not be calculated. Now everyone is grabbing the wind of projects, and there are many'star companies' that dare to value hundreds of millions or billions at the angel stage.\" A partner of a local venture capital institution lamented.</p><p>But yesterday's carnival is becoming today's tears.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the primary market is facing severe difficulties in fundraising and withdrawal. Whether it is A-shares or Hong Kong stocks, the phenomenon of breaking is emerging one after another, which makes it difficult for many VC/PE behind them to hide their losses-the first and second-level valuations are inverted, and investors have even lost money to the B round.</p><p>\"According to the current market value of the secondary market, the valuation of the primary market has to drop again, otherwise how generous the investment is now, how ugly it will be to settle accounts later.\" When VC/PE has valuation anxiety, investment begins to slow down.</p><p>The busy investors in the past collectively pressed the pause button. Zero2IPO Research Center released a set of data-in the first quarter of this year, the market slowed down significantly, and the number and amount of investment cases decreased by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, the money invested this year was nearly half less than that of the same period last year. It can be called halved. Responsible to the LP, the GP no longer takes easy action.</p><p>\"Wait for the valuation to come down\" is the most heard sentence in the investment community in several months. We can vaguely see such a picture: In fact, the vast majority of VC/PE still have surplus grain, but now they cherish bullets more, hold their pockets tightly and wait silently for the project valuation to reach a reasonable position.</p><p>Lowering the valuation has become the most urgent thing for enterprises, otherwise they may run out of ammunition and food.</p><p>We see that the valuation of new consumer unicorns is collectively falling, and projects that couldn't be invested in last year are beginning to let go. Semiconductors have also started, and the number of founders of \"I am willing to accept flat wheels\" has begun to increase. In the fields of innovative drugs and SAAS, valuations have begun to be lowered and return to rationality.</p><p>\"Valuation is a topic that everyone is unwilling to face but must face.\" An investor in Beijing suggested that entrepreneurs should be more realistic in the current environment and not be kidnapped by the company's past valuation.</p><p>This time, Tiger and Softbank taught domestic VCs a vivid and real lesson with bloody lessons-those who come out to mix will have to pay it back sooner or later.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/54wqtJCQYHHGqT2VZb8LEQ\">投资界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"00612":"嘉文世纪投资公司"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/54wqtJCQYHHGqT2VZb8LEQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164486275","content_text":"作者:杨继云“连大佬都亏得那么多,我们慌啥。”2022年前4个月,老虎环球基金(Tiger Global Management)已经亏损170亿美元(约1153亿人民币),这是老虎环球基金史上最糟糕的一页。无独有偶,软银孙正义也酿成了风投史上最大窟窿——截止今年3月31日,软银净亏损900亿人民币,其中罪魁祸首是软银愿景基金。结果相似,追溯他们的过程也有着惊人的相似。过去几年,软银和老虎横扫一级市场,最令人印象深刻的莫过于——肯给高估值,敢给高估值,不计较估值的碾压式打法。然而今日,曾经的疯狂已无人买单。这个教训同样值得国内所有VC反思——当初投得有多大方,可能后面算账就有多难看。史上最惨:老虎和软银,亏了2000亿2022年,大概率成为老虎环球基金史上战绩最差的一年。这一次,老虎环球基金在一二级市场累计亏掉约170亿美元(约1153亿人民币),令人触目惊人。这一个数字意味着,老虎环球基金已经将2020年流动性牛市中赚到的48%的收益,全部亏了出去。亏得已经不想解释了。老虎环球最近致投资者的一封简信中承认:“我们不相信借口,所以也不会找任何借口。”细细探究,老虎这次折戟的最主要原因,在于科技股惨淡的表现。2022年以来,美股持续动荡难测,今年4月纳斯达克指数跌幅超过13%,该指数今年以来已跌逾25%,重仓了科技股的老虎环球基金自然因此蒙受巨大亏损。成立于2001年,老虎环球基金如今生意横跨一二级市场——不仅是举世闻名的对冲基金,也是一级市场赫赫有名的大鳄。从2003年开始,老虎环球基金就进入了中国。谈到在中国的成绩,不得不提到前老虎环球基金合伙人、中国总经理陈小红——一个几乎不接受采访,拥有传奇色彩的创投女性。要说老虎环球基金一级市场战绩,最为人熟知的莫过于当年对于京东的经典一役。资料显示,2010年,老虎环球基金就大手笔投给京东2.5亿美元,2014年京东上市,老虎的最终回报也是高达70多亿美元。此后,老虎环球基金一直活跃在创投圈,出手凌厉且激进。眼下和老虎环球基金遭遇惊人相似的,还有软银。上周四,孙正义在日本东京公布了软银集团最新财报,数字同样触目惊人:截至3月31日,软银集团2021财年净亏损为1.7万亿日元(约合人民币900亿元)。其中,愿景基金2021财年净亏损高达2.64万亿日元(约合人民币1400亿元)。即便放在全球范围来看,这都是风投史上最大一笔亏损,绝无仅有。为此,孙正义宣布正式放缓投资:软银将采取保守的投资步伐。他还给出一个具体数字:与去年相比,今年投资额将减半或四分之一。至此,全球一级市场上昔日最凶猛的两个玩家——老虎环球基金和软银,一举累计赔掉了约2000亿元人民币。翻开过去二十年创投历史,这样的一幕第一次出现。疯狂一幕:肯给高估值,敢给高估值现在无人买单平心而论,老虎环球基金和软银天坑亏损背后有一定宏观环境的原因——全球疫情、美元加息、俄乌战争.....但不能全是大环境背锅。熟悉创投圈的人都知道,老虎环球基金和软银两位兄弟身后有惊人相似的一处——出手凶狠,投出一堆高估值明星独角兽。回首过去一年,老虎环球基金横扫VC圈的一幕依然令人印象深刻。当时有多疯狂?老虎环球基金四处出击,常常在24小时之内完成尽职调查,大手一挥迅速投资;几乎每两天便能宣布一项新的投资,而对手还没有回过神来。老虎环球基金节奏之快令人咂舌,但正是凭借超高的规模化程度和超快的投资速度取得优势。为此,同行曾总结了老虎环球基金的VC策略:1、对好的高科技企业先下手为强;2、通过尽职调查和发放投资意向书,(非常)快速行动;3、支付(极)高于历史标准或竞争对手的价格;4、投资后用(非常)轻量的方式参与公司事务。这样的“老虎速度”极具压迫感。在2021年上半年,老虎环球已经是全球最活跃的投资机构,甚至超过了Andreessen Horowitz等VC基金。2021年年中有个数据,在全球诞生的166家独角兽企业中,老虎基金最为活跃,投中了124家——这使得老虎在全球风头市场遥遥领先。北京一位与老虎环球基金竞争过项目的VC合伙人告诉投资界,“老虎基金的打法,如果真的在中国市场落地,很多VC都没机会了。好项目都被他们吸引过去了,给钱快还足,足够的资金、资源、人才覆盖市场,花不完的钱……赢得市场靠的就是力量。”他打了一个比喻,在那种堪称核武器的力量面前,任何雕虫小技都没有意义了。归根结底,这种打法最大特点就是肯给高估值,敢给高估值。老虎环球基金拥有自己的一套估值逻辑,敢于用大量的资金对于还在犹豫估值模型的VC/PE进行碾压。一位投资人讲述了一个细节——当时一家独角兽正和几个头部基金在谈融资,结果老虎环球基金一上来就给出比大家高 25%的估值。该公司CEO有点不敢相信,反馈说内部先考虑一下,老虎团队马上反问,需要多少价格才行?CEO说要不加1亿美元,老虎立即同意了。不止于此。2020年时,老虎自曝在过去21个月购买了字节跳动的股权,不断增加对字节的投资比例,彼时字节估值是1800亿美元。但令人没有想到的是,投资界获悉,2021年,老虎环球基金又以4600亿美金的估值给字节投了11亿。4600亿美金,已经明显高出了字节在一二级市场的估值。软银和老虎的风格都是一样的关键词:强势、高估值、碾压式。最明显的例子,是孙正义大手笔强势投资滴滴。当年谈判时,孙正义留下一句为创投圈津津乐道的话,“要么接受我的投资,要么我去投资你的竞争对手”。此次软银愿景最大亏损来自对WeWork的投资,更是孙正义风格的真实写照。从2017年开始,外界普遍质疑共享办公伪命题,孙正义不顾一切重仓WeWork并成为其最大外部持股方。当年,Wework创始人诺伊曼对外介绍,“当孙正义第一次选择投资我时,他只用了28分钟。”此后很长一段时间里,这甚至成为一个风投神话:一笔不顾估值数字,只需相信直觉的投资。后来的故事大家都知道了,顶着470亿估值上市的WeWork于2019年IPO失败,直到了2021年10月WeWork才通过SPAC艰难在纽交所上市,市值大打折扣。连续以高估值投资了104亿美元的软银亏损严重,如今WeWork整体市值只有几十亿美元,还不及软银对其的总体投资额。这样的案例不胜枚举。高估值进入,上市后表现却令人大跌眼镜;受二级市场的不安影响,老虎环球基金和软银集团押注的大批一级市场公司的估值也陆续下调,这些成为导致他们亏损的重要原因。比如老虎曾以160亿美元的估值,向支付处理公司Toast投资了2.54亿美元,但今天Toast的价值只有78亿美元;老虎曾以58亿美元估值投资的印度外卖平台Zomato,现在的市值也跌倒了53亿……曾经的高估值,无人买单。出来混的,迟早要还的:中国VC最残酷一课老虎与软银亏了2000亿,足以给国内VC敲响一个长长的警钟。过去几年间,中国一级市场的估值虚高疯狂一幕有目共睹。曾经的消费盛宴,一级市场酝酿出的巨大估值泡沫让投资人看不清来路,但潮水很快退去,不少公司现出了原形;还有半导体,过亿元天使轮融资应接不暇,估值暴涨成为了家常便饭。“干了这么多年,突然发现估值的账不会算了。现在大家都在抢风口的项目,竟然出现了很多天使阶段就敢估值几个亿、十个亿的‘明星企业’。”一家本土创投机构合伙人感叹。但昨日狂欢正在变为今日的眼泪。今年以来,一级市场正面临严峻的募资与退出之困,无论是A股还是港股,破发现象层出不穷,让背后一众VC/PE难掩失落——一二级估值倒挂上演,投资人甚至都亏到了B轮了。“按照现在二级市场的市值,一级市场的估值还得再降一降,否则现在投得有多大方,后面算账就有多难看。”当VC/PE出现估值焦虑,投资开始放缓。昔日忙碌的投资人集体按下了暂停键。清科研究中心公布了一组数据——今年一季度市场明显放缓节奏,投资案例数和金额分别同比下降27.5%和47.1%,换言之,今年投出的钱比去年同期少了近一半,堪称腰斩。对LP负责,GP不再轻易出手。“等估值降下来”,这是投资界数月以来听到最多的一句话。我们可以隐约看到这样一个画面:其实绝大多数VC/PE仍有余粮,但现在更珍惜子弹,捂紧口袋默默等着项目估值来到一个合理的位置。下调估值,已经成为企业最迫在眉睫的事情,否则可能弹尽粮绝。我们看到,新消费独角兽的估值正在集体回落,去年投不进的项目,开始纷纷松口了。半导体也开始了,“我愿意接受平轮”的创始人开始多了起来。还有创新药、SAAS领域,估值都开始下调回归理性。“估值是大家都不愿意面对但又必须面对的话题。”北京一位投资人建议创业者,在现有环境下,还是要比较现实,不要被公司过去的估值绑架。这一次,老虎和软银用血淋淋的教训给国内VC上了生动而真实的一课——出来混的,迟早要还的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00612":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029742015,"gmtCreate":1652833340637,"gmtModify":1676535170322,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okey","listText":"okey","text":"okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029742015","repostId":"1176846058","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067676365,"gmtCreate":1652460943557,"gmtModify":1676535105509,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okey","listText":"okey","text":"okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067676365","repostId":"1116849553","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067678616,"gmtCreate":1652460827335,"gmtModify":1676535105485,"author":{"id":"4103875539948740","authorId":"4103875539948740","name":"Yoshizawa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9163554d6764525eec0d8c15634811cd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103875539948740","authorIdStr":"4103875539948740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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