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  ·2023-03-02
  $NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$
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- 38fc7d1a38fc7d1a
  ·2022-12-07
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  Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!
  有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街
  Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!
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2303(NQmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628989618","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":629164144,"gmtCreate":1670342643190,"gmtModify":1676538349130,"author":{"id":"4105619832465460","authorId":"4105619832465460","name":"38fc7d1a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105619832465460","idStr":"4105619832465460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"11","listText":"11","text":"11","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629164144","repostId":"1168304633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168304633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670338784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168304633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 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It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Today, I'd like to share some key investment philosophies from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. Reading them will be beneficial, and I hope you find them helpful!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, and human nature will not change.</b></p><p>The market has its own rules, and these rules are due to unchanging human nature.</p><p>One lesson I learned early on in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again in the future. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how it happened. The facts I remember in this way are the ways I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They are outside the market, waiting to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; At all times, fundamentally due to greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their behavior in the same way—which is why the patterns and trends formed by those numbers always repeat themselves unchangingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Key point two: Making big money requires patience and \"waiting\".</b></p><p>Patiently wait for a truly perfect market trend, and avoid making predictive interventions; Timing is everything; buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something you do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time overlook one condition: trading requires a reason, and it must be an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what to do is almost as important as knowing what not to do.</p><p>Stock traders must fight many costly enemies within themselves. Making big money requires waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why predicting the market is so difficult is because of human nature. Mastering and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. Careful timing is very important; there are consequences to being too hasty.</p><p>My losses were entirely due to a lack of patience, a lack of patience to wait for the right moment to support preconceived notions and plans. I don't understand that 15 years later, some things allowed me to wait two long weeks, watching a stock I was very optimistic about rise by 30 points, before I felt it was safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key points to appear and the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, and more patience—this is his secret to seizing opportunities and achieving success. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting quietly.\"</p><p>All a person needs to do is observe what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from correctly interpreting the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything.\" Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line aligns with the direction of your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I will never make much profit from it. The reason is that I missed out on profit reserves.</p><p>With this courage and patience, he can observe market changes quietly and hold his stock in the face of the small pullbacks or rebounds that will inevitably occur before the end of this market rally.</p><p>The market will promptly signal you when to enter the market. It's also certain that the market will signal your exit in time—if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day,\" and truly significant trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to complete its logical process.</p><p>Many times, Livermore holds cash and waits until the right market conditions emerge. Much of his success lies in his ability to hold his money and wait patiently until the right market conditions appear before him.</p><p>When market conditions arise and many opportunities in his favor present themselves, it is at this time, and only at this time, that he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>A key to my later trading theory was to trade only on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also believe that the largest part of a stock's rally often occurs in the last two weeks or longer of the rally.</p><p>However, remember that when using key points to predict market trends, if the stock does not perform as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important warning sign that requires immediate attention. If I lose patience and don't wait for the key points to appear, but instead try to make money easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>It is also important to note that a significant increase in trading volume near the end of a market rally is often a real distribution. Because stocks shifted from strong traders to weak traders, and from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>Most investors believe that a significant increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment—either towards the highest price or the lowest price—but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate, that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter a trade may only be four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait, wait patiently, until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will move.</p><p>You must wait for the market or stock to break through. Don't estimate; wait for the market to confirm it. Don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold their money and wait for the right time to trade that can make big money. Patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Enter the market at the right time. Time is not money because sometimes, even if you enter the market early, you can't make money—time is time, and money is money. Funds can only make money when they enter the market at the right time—patience, patience, and more patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Do not predict or take action without market confirmation. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human, and I succumb to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I lost my patience, lost my correct judgments, and reversed their position—filled with hope when I should have been afraid. Feeling afraid when there should be hope.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, so high that you can't start buying and so low that you can't start selling. However, after the first trade, do not make a second trade unless the first one makes a profit. We must wait and observe. This is when your market analysis skills come into play, allowing you to determine the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at exactly the right time. It took me many years to understand the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Achieve success through hard research and clear thinking.</b></p><p>Right is right, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't make mistakes worse.</p><p>A brilliant speculator once told me: When I see a danger signal, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back. I thought that if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass instead of standing there foolishly. After it passes, I can always get back on the tracks if I want to.</p><p>These words vividly demonstrate a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Strangely enough, the trouble most speculators run into is something inside themselves that makes them lack the courage to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitated, and in their hesitation, they watched helplessly as the market changed many points in a direction unfavorable to them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market. It sounds funny, but I must understand this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Market analysis is an important part of this game, starting at the right time is also important, and sticking to your position is just as important. However, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall situation in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gambled blindly, no longer cared about mastering the techniques, but rather about achieving my success through diligent research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also discovered that no one is immune to the danger of making foolish moves. If a person acts foolishly, he must pay the price for his foolishness.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market.</b></p><p>The market tolerates and digests everything; it is always right, and conforming to the market is the wisest thing to do.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing this is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind price movements is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is emerging and ride your speculative ship with the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market. Most importantly, don't compete with the market for superiority.</p><p>The public should always remember the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it rises. Continuous buying will cause the stock price to continue to rise. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally experiences a natural slight pullback, following the upward trend is generally a fairly safe approach.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually turns downward after a long period of stable rise, with only occasional rebounds, it is clear that the path of least resistance has shifted from upward to downward. That's the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There are likely good reasons for the stock price decline, but only a few people know about these reasons. They either kept their reasons secret or told the public that the stock was very cheap. That's the essence of this game. The public should understand that a few people who know the inside story will not tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes before there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is dynamic; it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only speaks of facts, reality, and rationality. The stock market is never wrong; it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: The stock market has only one side, the factual side.</b></p><p>Losses are the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible; what is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make mistakes and make losing trades. Because speculation cannot be 100% safe. So-called experience is one that has many profound lessons, which can be heartbreaking and embarrassing. No pain, no memory, no pain, no reflection. That's what happened. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, then he's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world teaches you what not to do more than losing everything. When you know what you shouldn't do to avoid losing money, you start learning what you should do to win.</p><p>If someone tells me that my method won't work, I'll give it a thorough try anyway, just to be sure. Because when I'm wrong, there's only one thing—losing money—that can make me believe I'm wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make mistakes again. I'm only right when I'm making money; that's speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes. Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side: not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side.</p><p>It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admitted my losses, they never bothered me; I forgot about them the next day. But mistakes—not admitting fault—are things that hurt your pockets and your heart.</p><p>If a man does not make mistakes, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he cannot benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point Six: Unable to control one's emotions is a speculator's biggest enemy.</b></p><p>Trading is a confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I realized a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It's designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>The two main emotions in the stock market are hope and fear—hope often arises from greed, while fear often arises from ignorance.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They wait outside the market to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is essential to human survival, but hope is like its cousin in the stock market—ignorance, greed, fear, and twisted reason. Hope covers up the truth, while the stock market only recognizes the truth. The result is objective, it is final, like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of speculators always comes from within. Humanity cannot be separated from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market turns against you, you hope that every day will be the last day—and if you don't follow your hopes, you will lose more than you should—so strongly that you can compare it with the great and small founding heroes and pioneers of the country.</p><p>When the market goes your way, you fear it will take all your profits tomorrow, so you exit—too quickly. Fear prevents you from earning as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you could call a natural impulse. He should be afraid when he is hopeful, and he should be hopeful when he is afraid. He must be afraid that his losses might turn into bigger losses and hope that his profits might turn into bigger profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor lacks self-discipline, a clear strategy, and a simple, easy-to-implement plan, they will fall into an emotional trap. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a viable battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are about to make is financially secure, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often that they pay too much for each position. And why? Because everyone wants to trade. It is inhuman to pay too much for each transaction. People want to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest. Maintain a calm mindset. Don't argue with facts, don't hold onto hope when there is no hope, and don't argue with quote machines, because quote machines are always right—in speculation, there is no place for hope, no place for guesswork, no place for fear, no place for greed, and no place for emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several installments, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If, under certain circumstances, I buy a stock I'm optimistic about but it doesn't perform as I hoped, that's enough evidence for me to sell the stock.</p><p>I introduced my 10% rule—if I lost more than 10% on a trade, I would sell immediately.</p><p>I threw it out on instinct. In reality, this is not instinct, but a subconscious accumulated through years of struggle in the stock market. You must obey the rules you set for yourself—don't deceive yourself, don't procrastinate, don't wait! My basic principle is never to allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Key Point 8: Making Big Money Amidst High Volatility</b></p><p>An investor's greatest enemy is not the market, nor anything else, but the investor himself. Only large fluctuations can make you big money.</p><p>Let me tell you something: after all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: my ideas have never made me big money; it's always me who persists and makes me big money. Understood? It's because I can't move!</p><p>It is not surprising that his judgment of the market was correct. In a bull market, you will always find many people who go long from the start, while in a bear market, you will also find many people who go short from the start.</p><p>It is very rare for someone to be able to make correct judgments and stick to them at the same time, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. However, only when a stock trader truly understands this can he make big money. This is absolutely true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than it is for him to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and distinctly, but when the market is calm and ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or doubtful.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all, not even the third-level fool, yet they all lose money. That's the reason why.</p><p>The market didn't defeat them; they defeated themselves. Because although they had intelligence, they couldn't stand still.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it amidst large fluctuations. Regardless of the factors that may have driven the start of the large volatility, as long as the facts are in place, the large volatility can continue. This is not the result of speculation by insider groups or the skills of financiers, but relies on the underlying situation.</p><p>Ignoring large fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal threat to me. No one person can capture all the ups and downs. In a bull market, your approach is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is about to end.</p><p>To do this, you must study the overall trend, not the open cards or specific factors affecting individual stocks, and then you must forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to grab the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two schemes cost investors millions of dollars, enough to build a cement highway across the Americas.</p><p>A person who lacks confidence in his own judgment will not go very far in this kind of game. That's pretty much all I've learned—to study the overall situation, take a position, and stick with it.</p><p><b>Point Nine: The person who solves the stock market, humanity's greatest mystery, deserves the jackpot.</b></p><p>Speculation is not only a game, but also your own career, requiring continuous effort, dedication, and summarization.</p><p>Stock trading is essentially playing a game, and you must win. Good stock traders, like well-trained professional athletes, must develop good lifestyle habits and maintain ample physical strength.</p><p>Money is definitely not what drives me. It is a game, a game to solve mysteries, a game to confuse and complicate the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge, and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a dynamic riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is about trading—that is, following the facts at hand, not following what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me remind you that your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your efforts. This effort involves consistently keeping track of market trends, thinking for yourself, and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to make a living from this game, they must trust themselves and their judgment. No one can rely on others telling him how to make big money.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complex mystery humankind has ever invented, and whoever solves it deserves a jackpot. It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's review it again: Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Wall Street Watcher Richard Smitten: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary insight.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Revisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRevisit the classics of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-06 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the real side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Today, I'd like to share some key investment philosophies from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. Reading them will be beneficial, and I hope you find them helpful!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, and human nature will not change.</b></p><p>The market has its own rules, and these rules are due to unchanging human nature.</p><p>One lesson I learned early on in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again in the future. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how it happened. The facts I remember in this way are the ways I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They are outside the market, waiting to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; At all times, fundamentally due to greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their behavior in the same way—which is why the patterns and trends formed by those numbers always repeat themselves unchangingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Key point two: Making big money requires patience and \"waiting\".</b></p><p>Patiently wait for a truly perfect market trend, and avoid making predictive interventions; Timing is everything; buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something you do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time overlook one condition: trading requires a reason, and it must be an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what to do is almost as important as knowing what not to do.</p><p>Stock traders must fight many costly enemies within themselves. Making big money requires waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why predicting the market is so difficult is because of human nature. Mastering and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. Careful timing is very important; there are consequences to being too hasty.</p><p>My losses were entirely due to a lack of patience, a lack of patience to wait for the right moment to support preconceived notions and plans. I don't understand that 15 years later, some things allowed me to wait two long weeks, watching a stock I was very optimistic about rise by 30 points, before I felt it was safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key points to appear and the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, and more patience—this is his secret to seizing opportunities and achieving success. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting quietly.\"</p><p>All a person needs to do is observe what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from correctly interpreting the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything.\" Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line aligns with the direction of your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I will never make much profit from it. The reason is that I missed out on profit reserves.</p><p>With this courage and patience, he can observe market changes quietly and hold his stock in the face of the small pullbacks or rebounds that will inevitably occur before the end of this market rally.</p><p>The market will promptly signal you when to enter the market. It's also certain that the market will signal your exit in time—if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day,\" and truly significant trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to complete its logical process.</p><p>Many times, Livermore holds cash and waits until the right market conditions emerge. Much of his success lies in his ability to hold his money and wait patiently until the right market conditions appear before him.</p><p>When market conditions arise and many opportunities in his favor present themselves, it is at this time, and only at this time, that he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>A key to my later trading theory was to trade only on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also believe that the largest part of a stock's rally often occurs in the last two weeks or longer of the rally.</p><p>However, remember that when using key points to predict market trends, if the stock does not perform as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important warning sign that requires immediate attention. If I lose patience and don't wait for the key points to appear, but instead try to make money easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>It is also important to note that a significant increase in trading volume near the end of a market rally is often a real distribution. Because stocks shifted from strong traders to weak traders, and from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>Most investors believe that a significant increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment—either towards the highest price or the lowest price—but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate, that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter a trade may only be four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait, wait patiently, until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will move.</p><p>You must wait for the market or stock to break through. Don't estimate; wait for the market to confirm it. Don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold their money and wait for the right time to trade that can make big money. Patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Enter the market at the right time. Time is not money because sometimes, even if you enter the market early, you can't make money—time is time, and money is money. Funds can only make money when they enter the market at the right time—patience, patience, and more patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Do not predict or take action without market confirmation. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human, and I succumb to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I lost my patience, lost my correct judgments, and reversed their position—filled with hope when I should have been afraid. Feeling afraid when there should be hope.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, so high that you can't start buying and so low that you can't start selling. However, after the first trade, do not make a second trade unless the first one makes a profit. We must wait and observe. This is when your market analysis skills come into play, allowing you to determine the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at exactly the right time. It took me many years to understand the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Achieve success through hard research and clear thinking.</b></p><p>Right is right, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't make mistakes worse.</p><p>A brilliant speculator once told me: When I see a danger signal, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back. I thought that if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at sixty miles an hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass instead of standing there foolishly. After it passes, I can always get back on the tracks if I want to.</p><p>These words vividly demonstrate a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Strangely enough, the trouble most speculators run into is something inside themselves that makes them lack the courage to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitated, and in their hesitation, they watched helplessly as the market changed many points in a direction unfavorable to them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market. It sounds funny, but I must understand this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Market analysis is an important part of this game, starting at the right time is also important, and sticking to your position is just as important. However, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall situation in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gambled blindly, no longer cared about mastering the techniques, but rather about achieving my success through diligent research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also discovered that no one is immune to the danger of making foolish moves. If a person acts foolishly, he must pay the price for his foolishness.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market.</b></p><p>The market tolerates and digests everything; it is always right, and conforming to the market is the wisest thing to do.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing this is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind price movements is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is emerging and ride your speculative ship with the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market. Most importantly, don't compete with the market for superiority.</p><p>The public should always remember the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it rises. Continuous buying will cause the stock price to continue to rise. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally experiences a natural slight pullback, following the upward trend is generally a fairly safe approach.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually turns downward after a long period of stable rise, with only occasional rebounds, it is clear that the path of least resistance has shifted from upward to downward. That's the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There are likely good reasons for the stock price decline, but only a few people know about these reasons. They either kept their reasons secret or told the public that the stock was very cheap. That's the essence of this game. The public should understand that a few people who know the inside story will not tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes before there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is dynamic; it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only speaks of facts, reality, and rationality. The stock market is never wrong; it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: The stock market has only one side, the factual side.</b></p><p>Losses are the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible; what is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make mistakes and make losing trades. Because speculation cannot be 100% safe. So-called experience is one that has many profound lessons, which can be heartbreaking and embarrassing. No pain, no memory, no pain, no reflection. That's what happened. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, then he's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world teaches you what not to do more than losing everything. When you know what you shouldn't do to avoid losing money, you start learning what you should do to win.</p><p>If someone tells me that my method won't work, I'll give it a thorough try anyway, just to be sure. Because when I'm wrong, there's only one thing—losing money—that can make me believe I'm wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make mistakes again. I'm only right when I'm making money; that's speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes. Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side: not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side.</p><p>It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admitted my losses, they never bothered me; I forgot about them the next day. But mistakes—not admitting fault—are things that hurt your pockets and your heart.</p><p>If a man does not make mistakes, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he cannot benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point Six: Unable to control one's emotions is a speculator's biggest enemy.</b></p><p>Trading is a confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I realized a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It's designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>The two main emotions in the stock market are hope and fear—hope often arises from greed, while fear often arises from ignorance.</p><p>I believe that not being able to control one's emotions is the real enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, they are hidden in our hearts. They wait outside the market to jump in and perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is essential to human survival, but hope is like its cousin in the stock market—ignorance, greed, fear, and twisted reason. Hope covers up the truth, while the stock market only recognizes the truth. The result is objective, it is final, like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of speculators always comes from within. Humanity cannot be separated from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market turns against you, you hope that every day will be the last day—and if you don't follow your hopes, you will lose more than you should—so strongly that you can compare it with the great and small founding heroes and pioneers of the country.</p><p>When the market goes your way, you fear it will take all your profits tomorrow, so you exit—too quickly. Fear prevents you from earning as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you could call a natural impulse. He should be afraid when he is hopeful, and he should be hopeful when he is afraid. He must be afraid that his losses might turn into bigger losses and hope that his profits might turn into bigger profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor lacks self-discipline, a clear strategy, and a simple, easy-to-implement plan, they will fall into an emotional trap. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a viable battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are about to make is financially secure, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often that they pay too much for each position. And why? Because everyone wants to trade. It is inhuman to pay too much for each transaction. People want to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest. Maintain a calm mindset. Don't argue with facts, don't hold onto hope when there is no hope, and don't argue with quote machines, because quote machines are always right—in speculation, there is no place for hope, no place for guesswork, no place for fear, no place for greed, and no place for emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several installments, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If, under certain circumstances, I buy a stock I'm optimistic about but it doesn't perform as I hoped, that's enough evidence for me to sell the stock.</p><p>I introduced my 10% rule—if I lost more than 10% on a trade, I would sell immediately.</p><p>I threw it out on instinct. In reality, this is not instinct, but a subconscious accumulated through years of struggle in the stock market. You must obey the rules you set for yourself—don't deceive yourself, don't procrastinate, don't wait! My basic principle is never to allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Key Point 8: Making Big Money Amidst High Volatility</b></p><p>An investor's greatest enemy is not the market, nor anything else, but the investor himself. Only large fluctuations can make you big money.</p><p>Let me tell you something: after all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: my ideas have never made me big money; it's always me who persists and makes me big money. Understood? It's because I can't move!</p><p>It is not surprising that his judgment of the market was correct. In a bull market, you will always find many people who go long from the start, while in a bear market, you will also find many people who go short from the start.</p><p>It is very rare for someone to be able to make correct judgments and stick to them at the same time, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. However, only when a stock trader truly understands this can he make big money. This is absolutely true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than it is for him to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and distinctly, but when the market is calm and ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or doubtful.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all, not even the third-level fool, yet they all lose money. That's the reason why.</p><p>The market didn't defeat them; they defeated themselves. Because although they had intelligence, they couldn't stand still.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it amidst large fluctuations. Regardless of the factors that may have driven the start of the large volatility, as long as the facts are in place, the large volatility can continue. This is not the result of speculation by insider groups or the skills of financiers, but relies on the underlying situation.</p><p>Ignoring large fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal threat to me. No one person can capture all the ups and downs. In a bull market, your approach is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is about to end.</p><p>To do this, you must study the overall trend, not the open cards or specific factors affecting individual stocks, and then you must forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to grab the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two schemes cost investors millions of dollars, enough to build a cement highway across the Americas.</p><p>A person who lacks confidence in his own judgment will not go very far in this kind of game. That's pretty much all I've learned—to study the overall situation, take a position, and stick with it.</p><p><b>Point Nine: The person who solves the stock market, humanity's greatest mystery, deserves the jackpot.</b></p><p>Speculation is not only a game, but also your own career, requiring continuous effort, dedication, and summarization.</p><p>Stock trading is essentially playing a game, and you must win. Good stock traders, like well-trained professional athletes, must develop good lifestyle habits and maintain ample physical strength.</p><p>Money is definitely not what drives me. It is a game, a game to solve mysteries, a game to confuse and complicate the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge, and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a dynamic riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is about trading—that is, following the facts at hand, not following what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me remind you that your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your efforts. This effort involves consistently keeping track of market trends, thinking for yourself, and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to make a living from this game, they must trust themselves and their judgment. No one can rely on others telling him how to make big money.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complex mystery humankind has ever invented, and whoever solves it deserves a jackpot. It takes a long time for a person to learn all the lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's review it again: Some say there are two sides to everything, but the stock market only has one side, not the bullish or bearish side, but the true side. It took me far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical aspects of stock speculation games.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Wall Street Watcher Richard Smitten: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary insight.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b95528fdc6a3c8b5fe288dfa493f854","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168304633","content_text":"有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街投机之王利弗莫尔的几条投资理念要点，开卷有益，祝大家能有所收获哦！要点一：华尔街不会改变，人性不会改变市场是有规律的，市场的规律性缘因于不变的人性。我很早在股市中学到的一个教训，就是华尔街没有新事物，因为投机就像山岳那么古老。股市今天发生的事以前发生过，以后会再度发生。我想我真正没法记住的就是何时和如何发生。我用这种方式记住的事实，就是我利用经验的方法。华尔街从来不会改变，因为人的本性是从来不会改变的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把；无论是在什么时候，从根本上说由于贪婪和恐惧、无知和希望，人们总是按照相同的方法重复自己的行为——这就是为什么那些数字构成的图形和趋势，总是一成不变地重复出现的原因。要点二：赚大钱要靠耐心“等待”耐心等待市场真正完美的趋势，不要做预测性介入；时机就是一切，要在恰当的时候买进，也要在恰当的时候卖出。交易不是每天要做的事情，那种认为随时都要交易的人，忽略了一个条件，就是交易是需要理由的，而且是客观的、适当的理由。除了设法决定如何赚钱之外，交易者必须设法避免亏钱。知道什么应该做，跟知道什么不应该做几乎一样重要。股票作手必须对抗内心中很多代价高昂的敌人。赚大钱要靠等待，而不是靠想；一定要等到所有因素都对你有利的时机。预测市场之所以如此困难，就是因为人的本性。驾驭和征服人的本性是最困难的任务。仔细地选择时机是非常重要的，一旦操之过急，是要付出代价的。我的损失完全是由于缺乏耐心造成的，没有耐心地等待恰当的时机，来支持事先已经形成的看法和计划。不懂得15年后，有些事情让我能够等待长长的两星期，看着我十分看好的股票上涨30点时，才觉得买进很安全。这要有耐心，等着恰当的关键点出现，等着恰当的交易时机。耐心、耐心、再耐心这就是他把握时机，获得成功的诀窍。他常常说：“赚钱的不是想法，而是静等”。一个人需要做的，只是观察市场正在告诉他什么，并对此做出反应。答案就在市场本身，挑战来自对呈现出来的事实做出正确的解释。“时机就是一切”。在进入交易之前，最重要的是确定最小阻力线是否和你的交易方向一致。我的经验是，如果我不是在接近某个趋势的开始点才进入市场，我就绝对不会从这个趋势中获取多少利润。原因是，我错失了利润储备。有了这种勇气和耐心，他就可以静观市场变化，就可以在这次行情结束前必定不断出现的小的回落或回升面前持股不动。市场会及时向你发出什么时候进入市场的信号。同样肯定的是，市场也会及时向你发出退场的信号—如果你耐心等待的话。“罗马不是一天建成的”，真正重大的趋势不会在一天或一个星期就结束。它走完自己的逻辑过程是需要时间的。在很多时候，利弗摩尔是持币观望，直到合适的行情出现。他的很多成功就在于他能够持币观望，耐心等待，直到恰当的行情出现在他的面前。当行情出现，有很多对他有利的机会出现时，在这个时候，也只有在这个时候，他才像眼镜蛇一样，“噌”地一声窜出去。我后来的交易理论的一个关键是：只在关键点上进行交易。只要我有耐心，在关键点上进行交易，我就总能赚到钱。我还认为，一只股票的行情的最大部分，往往发生在这一次行情的最后两个星期或更长一段时间。但要记住，在使用关键点预测行情的时候如果这只股票在越过关键点之后，没有像它应该表现的那样，那就是一个需要立即引起注意的、重要的危险信号。只要我失去耐心，没有等到关键点的出现，而是像轻而易举地赚到钱，我就肯定会赔钱。另外需要注意的是：在一次行情快结束的时候，成交量大幅度增加，往往是一次真正的分配。因为股票从强手转给了弱手从专业操盘手转到了普通股民。一般股民认为成交量大幅增加是正常调整之后——不是向最高价格调整就是向最低价格调整——而出现的活跃和健康市场的一个信号，但是这种看法是没有依据的。我要向愿意把投机看成一种严肃生意的那些人说清楚，而且我希望郑重重申的是一厢情愿的想法必须清除；指望每天或每星期都投机的人，不会获得成功；你允许你自己进入交易的次数，一年可能只有四五次。在交易之前，要等待，要耐心地等待，直到尽可能多的因素都对你有利的时候，再进行交易。耐心可以使你赚到钱。不要预测或估计市场将在什么时候朝什么方向发展，这是很危险的。你必须等待市场或股票出现突破。不要估计，要等着市场来证实，不要跟报价单争论。现金过去是，现在是，将来也永远是国王。事实上，往往是那些持币观望，等到恰当时机进行交易的人，才能赚到大钱。耐心耐心再耐心，才是成功的关键。如果一个精明的投机者把握好这一点的话，时间就是他最好的朋友。掌握恰当的时机进入市场。时间不是金钱因为有时候，尽管你早早进入了市场，却不能赚到钱——时间就是时间，而资金就是资金。资金要等到恰当的时候进入市场才能赚到钱——耐心、耐心、再耐心，是成功的关键。如果没有市场的证实，不要预测，也不要采取行动。有很多次我和其他许多投机者一样，没有耐心等待肯定要发生的事情。我是人，也屈从于人的弱点。和所有的投机者一样，我也没有了耐心，失去了正确的判断，颠倒了它们的位置——在该感到害怕的时候却充满希望；在该充满希望的时候却感到恐惧。真正的趋势不会在它们开始那天就结束而一次真正的趋势是需要时间的。请记住股票永远不会太高，高到让你不能开始买进也不会低到让你不能开始卖出。但是在第一笔交易后，除非第一笔出现利润，否则别做第二笔。要等待和观察。这就是你解盘能力发挥作用的时候，让你能够判定开始的正确时机。很多事情成功与否，要看是否在完全正确的时机开始。我花了很多年才了解这一点的重要性。要点三：靠努力研究和清楚的思考赢得成功正确就是正确，错误就是错误，只做正确的事情，不要错上加错。一位极具天才的投机家曾经告诉过我：当我看见一个危险信号的时候，我不跟它争执。我躲开！几天以后，如果一切看起来还不错，我就再回来。我是这么想的，如果我正沿着铁轨往前走，看见一辆火车以每小时60英里的速度向我冲来，我会跳下铁轨让火车开过去，而不会愚蠢地站在那里不动。它开过去之后，只要我愿意，我总能再回到铁轨上来。这番话非常形象地表现了一种投机智慧令我始终不忘。奇怪的是，大多数投机者遇到的麻烦的是他们自己内心中的一些东西，使他们没有足够的勇气在他们应该平仓的时候平仓。他们犹豫不决，他们在犹豫当中，眼睁睁地看着市场朝着对自己不利的方向变动了很多个点。显然应该要做的事是在多头市场看多，在空头市场中看空。听起来很好笑，但是我必须深深了解这个一般原则，才能够把这个原则付诸实施。我花了很长的时间，才学会根据这些原则交易。解盘在这种游戏中是重要的一部分，在正确的时候开始也很重要，坚持自己的仓位也一样重要。但是，我最大的发现是一个人必须研究和评估整体状况，以便预测未来的可能性。我不再盲目地赌博，不再关心如何精通操作技巧，而是关心靠着努力研究和清楚的思考，赢得自己的成功。我也发现没有一个人能够免于犯下愚蠢操作的危险。一个人操作愚蠢，就要为愚蠢付出代价。要点四：不要与市场争高低市场包容和消化一切，它永远都是正确的，顺应市场是最明智的。我的理论是：在这些重大的趋势背后，总有一股不可抗拒的力量。知道这一点就足够了。对价格运动背后的所有原因过于好奇，不是什么好事。只要认识到趋势在什么地方出现，顺着潮流驾驭你的投机之舟，就能从中得到好处而不要跟市场争论，最重要的是，不要跟市场争个高低。大众应该始终记住股票交易的要素。一只股票上涨时，不需要花精神去解释它为什么会上涨。持续的买进，会让股价继续上涨。只要股价持续上涨，偶尔出现自然的小幅回档，跟着涨势走，大致都是相当安全的办法。但是，如果股价经过长期的稳定上升后逐渐转为开始下跌，只偶尔反弹，显然阻力最小的路线已经从向上变成向下。情形就是这样，为什么要寻找解释呢？股价下跌很可能有很好的理由，但是，这些理由只有少数人知道。他们不是把理由秘而不宣，就是反而告诉大众说这只股票很便宜。这个游戏的本质就是这样，大众应该了解，少数知道内情的人不会说出真相。简单的事实是，行情总是先发生变化，然后才有经济新闻，市场不会对经济新闻作出反应。市场是活的，它反映的是将来。贪婪和恐惧一样，都会扭曲理性。股市只讲事实，只讲现实，只讲理性，股市永远不会错，错的是交易者。要点五：股市只有一面，事实的一面亏损是交易的成本，失败并不可怕，可怕的是没有从失败中得到足够的教训。不管交易者多么有经验，他犯错做出亏损交易的可能性总是存在的。因为投机不可能百分之百安全。所谓经验就是教训比较多，比较深刻，让人心痛，让人尴尬。不痛，记不住，不痛，不会反思。事情就是这样。一个人犯错很正常，但是如果他不能从错误中吸取教训，那就真冤了。世界上没有什么东西，比亏光一切更能教会你不该做什么。等你知道不该做什么才能不亏钱时，你就开始学习该做什么才能赢钱。要是有人告诉我，说我的方法行不通，我反正也会彻底试一试，好让自己确定这一点。因为我错误的时候，只有一件事情—就是亏钱——能够让我相信我错了。我知道，总有一天我会找到错误的地方而不再犯错。只有赚钱的时候，我才算是正确，这就是投机。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面：不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深地印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。亏钱是最不会让我困扰的事情。我认亏之后，亏损从来不会困扰我，隔天我就忘掉了。但是错误——没有认亏——却是伤害口袋和心灵的东西。要是一个人不犯错的话，他会在一个月之内拥有全世界。但是，如果他不能从错误中得到好处，他就绝对不能拥有什么好东西。要点六：控制不住自己的情绪是投机者最大的死敌交易就是理性与情感的对抗，交易需要理性的计划。我很早以前就认识到，股市从来都不是平淡无奇的。它是为愚弄大多数人、大多数时间而设计的。股市上的两种主要的情绪，希望和恐惧—希望往往是因为贪婪而产生的，而恐惧往往是因为无知而产生的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把。希望对于人类的生存是至关重要的，但希望与股市上的表亲——无知、贪婪、恐惧和扭曲的理智是一样的。希望掩盖了事实而股市只认事实。结果是客观的，是最终的，就像大自然一样，是不会改变的。投机客的主要敌人总是从内心出现。人性跟希望和恐惧无法分开。在投机时，如果市场背离你，你希望每天都是最后一天—而且你要是不遵从希望，你会损失的比应有程度还多——强烈到可以媲美大大小小的开国功臣和开疆拓土的豪杰。市场照你的意思走时，你害怕明天会把你所有的利润拿走，因此你退出——退得太快了。害怕使你赚不到应赚的那么多钱。成功的交易者必须克服这两个根深蒂固的本能。他必须改变你可以称之为天性冲动的东西。他抱着希望时其实应该要害怕而在害怕时，他应该要抱着希望。他必须害怕他的亏损可能变成更大的亏损，希望他的利润可能变成更大的利润。照一般人那样在股票上赌博，绝对是错误的。记住，如果一个投资者没有自律，没有一种明确策略，没有一个简单易行的计划就会陷入情绪的陷阱。因为没有一个计划的投机者就像是一个没有战略，因而也就没有可行的作战方案的将军。要点七：绝不让亏损超过资本的10％控制你的交易，管理你的资金。除非你知道你要进行的交易在财务上是安全的，否则，绝不要进行任何交易。没有经验的投机者面临的困境，往往是为每一笔头寸付出的太多。为什么呢？因为每个人都想交易。为每笔交易付出太多是不符合人性的。人们都想在最低价时买进而在最高价时卖出。心态要平和，不要与事实争辩，不要在没有希望的时候保有希望，不要与报价机争辩，因为报价机总是正确的——在投机中没有希望的位置，没有猜测的位置，没有恐惧的位置，没有贪婪的位置、没有情绪的位置。最后，投机者在买股票的时候应该分几次买，而且每次只买一定的比例。如果我在某种情况下买进一只我看好的股票但它没有按照我所希望的那样表现，对我来说这就是卖掉这只股票的足够证据。我提出了我的10％规则——如果我在一笔交易中的损失超过10％，我就马上抛出。我凭本能抛出。实际上这不是本能而是多年来在股市上拼杀积累起来的潜意识。你必须服从你自己定的规则——不能欺骗你自己，不要拖延，不要等待！我的基本原则是，绝不让亏损超过资本的10％。要点八：大波动中赚大钱投资者最大的敌人不是市场，不是别的其他，而是投资者自己。大波动才能让你挣大钱。这里让我说一件事情：在华尔街经历了这么多年，赚了几百万美元，又亏了几百万美元之后，我想告诉你这一点：我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱，总是我坚持不动替我赚大钱。懂了吗？是我坚持不动！对市场判断正确丝毫不足为奇。你在多头市场里，总会找到很多一开始就做多的人而在空头市场里，也会找到很多一开始就做空的人。能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人是很罕见的，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。但是股票作手只有确实了解这一点之后，他才能够赚大钱。这一点千真万确。作手知道如何操作之后，要赚几百万美元，比他在一无所知时想赚几百美元还容易。原因在于一个人可能看得清楚而明确，却在市场从容不迫、准备照他认为一定会走的方向走时，他变得不耐烦或怀疑起来。华尔街有这么多根本不属于傻瓜阶级的人甚至不属于第三级傻瓜的人，却都会亏钱道理就在这里。市场并没有打败他们，他们打败了自己。因为他们虽然有头脑，却无法坚持不动。我开始了解，要赚大钱一定要在大波动中赚。不管推动大波动起步的因素可能是什么，只要事实俱在，大波动就能够持续下去。这不是内线集团炒作或金融家的技巧造成的结果，而是依靠基本形势。不理会大波动，设法抢进抢出，对我来说是致命大患。没有一个人能够抓住所有的起伏。在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你相信多头市场即将结束时为止。要这样做，你必须研究整个大势，而不是研究明牌或影响个股的特殊因素，然后你要忘掉你所有的股票，永远忘掉！任何人所能学到一个最有帮助的事情，就是放弃尝试抓住最后一档或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。总计起来这两档让股友耗费了千百万美元，多到足以建筑一条横贯美洲大陆的水泥公路。一个人如果对自己的判断没有信心，在这种游戏中就走不了多远。这些大概是我学到的一切—研究整体状况，承接仓位，并且坚持下去。要点九：解开股市这个人类最大谜团的人应该得头奖投机是一场游戏，更是你自己的事业，需要持续的努力、付出和总结。炒股实际上就是玩游戏，一定要在这场游戏中获胜。好的股票交易者不能不像训练有素的职业运动员一样，他们必须养成良好的生活习惯，保持充沛的体力。驱动我的也绝不是金钱。它是一场游戏是一场解开谜团的游戏，是一场把人类历史上最伟大的头脑搞乱、搞复杂的游戏。对我来说，激情、挑战、兴奋，都在打赢这场游戏之中了。这场游戏是一个充满活力的谜语，而这个谜底就是要由我来告诉在华尔街投机的所有男男女女的。在游戏中，你的神经被推到了极限，但奖赏也是非常高的。我的事业是交易——也就是遵循眼前的事实，而不是遵循我认为别人应当会做的事情。让我给你提个醒：你的成功将与你在自己的努力中所表现出来的真心和忠诚度成正比。这种努力包括坚持自己做行情记录并自己进行思考并得出自己的结论。一个人要是想靠这个游戏过活，必须相信自己和自己的判断。没有人能靠别人告诉他要怎么做赚大钱。股市是人类发明的最大的和最复杂的谜团而解开这个谜团的人是应该得头奖的。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。让我们再重温一遍：有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。最后，让我们以华尔街观察家理查德斯密腾的话作为结束：“谢谢你， 杰西·利弗摩尔，感谢你的智慧，感谢你所做的艰苦工作，感谢你那非凡的悟性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}