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Doss akp

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- Doss akpDoss akp
  ·2024-08-15
  $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ >130 b4 earnings
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- Doss akpDoss akp
  ·2024-02-12
  How could someone trade ETFs?
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- Doss akpDoss akp
  ·2023-11-09
  Waiting it to hit max!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Doss akpDoss akp
  ·2023-07-18
  If there is no sale why would there be more projects launched? 😳
  New Home Sales Plunge 73.2% in June, but Rebound Imminent in July
  Nine property launches in July and August will keep the new home sales market lively.The lack of new project launches has pushed new private home sales to drop 73.2% in June, with just 278 units sold
  New Home Sales Plunge 73.2% in June, but Rebound Imminent in July
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- Doss akpDoss akp
  ·2023-04-26
  Good insight! Thanks
  Apple: Dead Money? I Disagree
  Apple stock prices have been stuck in a $125-$175 consolidation range for more than 2 years now.
  Apple: Dead Money? I Disagree
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akp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109315684354460","authorIdStr":"4109315684354460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> &gt;130 b4 earnings&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> &gt;130 b4 earnings&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ >130 b4 earnings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338641786511456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":273009347428416,"gmtCreate":1707690603846,"gmtModify":1707698049287,"author":{"id":"4109315684354460","authorId":"4109315684354460","name":"Doss 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max!","listText":"Waiting it to hit max!","text":"Waiting it to hit max!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/239561515286528","repostId":"1177689888","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199152134311992,"gmtCreate":1689659404027,"gmtModify":1689659682623,"author":{"id":"4109315684354460","authorId":"4109315684354460","name":"Doss akp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109315684354460","authorIdStr":"4109315684354460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If there is no sale why would there be more projects launched? 😳","listText":"If there is no sale why would there be more projects launched? 😳","text":"If there is no sale why would there be more projects launched? 😳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199152134311992","repostId":"1184330367","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184330367","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1689656506,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184330367?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-18 13:01","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"New Home Sales Plunge 73.2% in June, but Rebound Imminent in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184330367","media":"Singapore Business Review","summary":"Nine property launches in July and August will keep the new home sales market lively.The lack of new project launches has pushed new private home sales to drop 73.2% in June, with just 278 units sold ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>Nine property launches in July and August will keep the new home sales market lively.</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The lack of new project launches has pushed new private home sales to drop 73.2% in June, with just 278 units sold compared to the 1,039 units moved in May, according to the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).<br/> <br/>Developers held back on putting projects on the market in June, where sales activity tends to be slower owing to the school holidays where many families may be traveling, noted Siew Ying Wong, head of research &amp; content, PropNex Realty. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In May, the launch of The Continuum and The Reserve Residences boosted sales, leading to 488 units being sold during the month. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Rest of Central Region (RCR) recorded the most new home sales sold in June, with 147 new homes. However, this is 82.6% lower than the 847 units transacted in May. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RCR home sales would likely lead transactions again in July following the launch of Grand Dunman and Pinetree Hill over the weekend, Wong noted.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A total of 112 new private home sales were sold in the Core Central Region (CCR) in June, a 26.8% decline compared to May. Developers notedly continued to pare down on their unsold CCR inventory, with 14 new units sold from Leedon Garden with a median price of $2,812 psf.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Van Holland also sold 13 units at a median price of $2,692 psf; and The Atelier moved 12 units at a median price of $2,663 psf during the month.<br/> <br/>New home sales in the Outside Central Region (OCR) continued to be tepid in June as the low unsold inventory in this sub-market limited buying opportunities and crimped demand. OCR new home sales fell by 51.3% in June, its third straight monthly decline, moving only 19 units. </p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wong noted that the significant decline in new home sales from May to June is no cause of concern given the lack of new launches, with most developers pushing back launches to July.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“Developers’ sales are supply-led, typically driven by new launches that come on and may fluctuate substantially from month to month, depending on the availability of new projects in the given month,” he said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wong anticipates that new home sales number will shoot up in July with the launch of four projects: The Myst, Lentor Hills Residences, Grand Dunman, and Pinetree Hill. The four projects have already collectively sold over 1,100 units in their respective launches in 8 July and 15 July weekends.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“We expect OCR sales to pick up markedly in July on the sales at The Myst and Lentor Hills Residences, leaping from three months of double-digit transaction numbers as low unsold supply stymied sales,” Wong said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The strong uptake from the July launches suggests that there is still keen interest in new private homes amongst buyers, Wong added.<br/> <br/>Other development launches in August and the coming months are expected to keep the new home sales market lively in the second half of 2023.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some of the upcoming launches in August include Lake Garden Residences, Altura EC, TMW Maxwell, Orchard Sophia, and The Arden. </p></body></html>","source":"sgbusiess_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Home Sales Plunge 73.2% in June, but Rebound Imminent in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Home Sales Plunge 73.2% in June, but Rebound Imminent in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-18 13:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/new-home-sales-plunge-732-in-june-rebound-imminent-in-july><strong>Singapore Business Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nine property launches in July and August will keep the new home sales market lively.The lack of new project launches has pushed new private home sales to drop 73.2% in June, with just 278 units sold ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/new-home-sales-plunge-732-in-june-rebound-imminent-in-july\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/new-home-sales-plunge-732-in-june-rebound-imminent-in-july","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184330367","content_text":"Nine property launches in July and August will keep the new home sales market lively.The lack of new project launches has pushed new private home sales to drop 73.2% in June, with just 278 units sold compared to the 1,039 units moved in May, according to the latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). Developers held back on putting projects on the market in June, where sales activity tends to be slower owing to the school holidays where many families may be traveling, noted Siew Ying Wong, head of research & content, PropNex Realty. In May, the launch of The Continuum and The Reserve Residences boosted sales, leading to 488 units being sold during the month. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) recorded the most new home sales sold in June, with 147 new homes. However, this is 82.6% lower than the 847 units transacted in May. RCR home sales would likely lead transactions again in July following the launch of Grand Dunman and Pinetree Hill over the weekend, Wong noted.A total of 112 new private home sales were sold in the Core Central Region (CCR) in June, a 26.8% decline compared to May. Developers notedly continued to pare down on their unsold CCR inventory, with 14 new units sold from Leedon Garden with a median price of $2,812 psf.The Van Holland also sold 13 units at a median price of $2,692 psf; and The Atelier moved 12 units at a median price of $2,663 psf during the month. New home sales in the Outside Central Region (OCR) continued to be tepid in June as the low unsold inventory in this sub-market limited buying opportunities and crimped demand. OCR new home sales fell by 51.3% in June, its third straight monthly decline, moving only 19 units. Wong noted that the significant decline in new home sales from May to June is no cause of concern given the lack of new launches, with most developers pushing back launches to July.“Developers’ sales are supply-led, typically driven by new launches that come on and may fluctuate substantially from month to month, depending on the availability of new projects in the given month,” he said.Wong anticipates that new home sales number will shoot up in July with the launch of four projects: The Myst, Lentor Hills Residences, Grand Dunman, and Pinetree Hill. The four projects have already collectively sold over 1,100 units in their respective launches in 8 July and 15 July weekends.“We expect OCR sales to pick up markedly in July on the sales at The Myst and Lentor Hills Residences, leaping from three months of double-digit transaction numbers as low unsold supply stymied sales,” Wong said.The strong uptake from the July launches suggests that there is still keen interest in new private homes amongst buyers, Wong added. Other development launches in August and the coming months are expected to keep the new home sales market lively in the second half of 2023.Some of the upcoming launches in August include Lake Garden Residences, Altura EC, TMW Maxwell, Orchard Sophia, and The Arden.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947965309,"gmtCreate":1682480370601,"gmtModify":1682480922931,"author":{"id":"4109315684354460","authorId":"4109315684354460","name":"Doss akp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109315684354460","authorIdStr":"4109315684354460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good insight! Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Good insight! Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Good insight! Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947965309","repostId":"1196929456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196929456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682431777,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196929456?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-25 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Dead Money? I Disagree","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196929456","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Apple stock prices have been stuck in a $125-$175 consolidation range for more than 2 years now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Apple stock prices have been stuck in a $125-$175 consolidation range for more than 2 years now.</p></li><li><p>If you have begun to consider it as dead money and are starting to lose patience, this article is for you.</p></li><li><p>The lower end of this range offers an excellent entry point for long-term holding, with a very asymmetric return profile.</p></li><li><p>And for swing trading, this range actually offers about the same level of volatility as its more exciting days.</p></li></ul><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Thesis</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">After enjoying a spectacular bull ride between 2020 and 2021, Apple&#39;s stock prices have been oscillating in a $125~$175 range for almost 3 years now (see the next chart below). You have good reasons to start thinking if it has become dead money.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And this article will show why, for me, this range is a blessing. I only wish it could stay in this range longer, so I can opportunistically keep nibbling here and there. In the remainder of this article, I will detail my analysis of a few key trigger points that could be of interest to both swing traders and also long-term investors. In particular, you will see that:</p><ul><li><p>For swing traders, this seemingly boring range actually offers as much volatility as its more exciting days. And yet, the valuation multiples are much more reasonable (in a P/E range of about 20x to 28x), which provides better fundamental protection.</p></li><li><p>For long-term investors, I will explain why buying AAPL (or any stock with fundamentals similar to AAPL) with P/E close to 20x is a no-brainer. At such multiples, AAPL is projected to offer about 10% annual return, almost double that of the overall market, and close to 3x of treasury bond yields. The risk-adjusted return is even higher, as I consider investment in AAPL to be much safer than in the overall equity market.</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f517f26423b7c5e0394992f69814455\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Swing Trading Opportunities</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you are getting bored by the consolidation range, the next chart below might change your mind. The chart shows the stock’s volatility in the past 5 years as measured by its price corrections off high. As seen, the stock has been as volatile in this range as it has been between 2019 and 2022. To wit, the stock is currently 9.3% off its recent peak price. And the stock suffered a correction of 30%+ in early 2023. Off-high corrections close to this magnitude only occurred twice in the past five years: first at the end of 2018 and then in earlier 2023. And in each instance, the stock price rebounded swiftly afterward.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the meantime, the P/E multiples are also much more reasonable in this price range (corresponding to a P/E range of 20x to 28x), offering much better fundamental protection for the trades. In contrast, the stock was priced in a P/E range of 30 to 40 during 2020 and 2021.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Next, we will see the implications of such P/E multiples for long-term holding.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cdc2292fe86d89ff2d1a51d10d4ac01\" alt=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha data</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Stable And Robust Long-term Growth Potential</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investors should not expect - and do not need - hyper-growth at AAPL anymore. In the long term, a healthy but stable growth curve, if bought at the right price, is always more profitable.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And AAPL is one of the best stocks offering these traits. First, it enjoys enviable capital allocation flexibility and yet continues to invest with discipline in its growth. The chart below summarizes the company&#39;s maintenance and growth capital spending (for details on these concepts, refer to my previous article here). As seen, the company&#39;s total depreciation and amortization (&#34;TDA&#34;) has been $11.3 billion on average, while its capital expenditures (CAPEX) have been on average $10.57 billion, BELOW its TDA.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39e08ee7ca2d2a1a59b7068231d2406\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Traditional wisdom is to approximate a business’ maintenance CAPEX by the TDA, then use the difference to approximate its growth CAPEX. Here, AAPL’s total CAPEX is less than its TDA on average. It of course does not mean that AAPL has not been investing in growth (the fact that its EPS has been growing robustly in the past settles this doubt).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The reason is that AAPL’s business model is so good that A) it can offload a good part of its CAPEX to the contractors (Foxconn serves as a notable example) it outsources, B) it uses its existing assets very efficiently, which reduces the need for significant capital expenditure, and C) its return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is so high that even a small amount of growth CAPEX investment can fuel healthy growth. We will elaborate on these points in more detail next.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">The $125-175 Range Again</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As mentioned earlier, a price range of $125 and $175 translates into a P/E range of about 20x to 28x, which is a much more reasonable range as illustrated by the chart below. In my opinion, this P/E range is very attractive both in relative and absolute terms. To put this into perspective, AAPL has been trading at an average P/E of 25.5x as shown below and the overall market (approximated by the S&amp;P 500) is valued at around 22x P/E as of this writing.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1d3a04c8ab63ac5eea3bd02ebcd847\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">And as aforementioned, AAPL’s business model is such that it does not need too much maintenance CAPEX. As a result, a good part of its total CAPEX is actually growth CAPEX so that its owners&#39; earnings (“OE”) are much higher than its accounting EPS.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The table below shows my estimate of AAPL’s FWD OE, in comparison to its accounting EPS and cash flows. The table was made following Greenwald’s method (detailed in my earlier article or Greenwald’s book, Value Investing). As seen, my estimate of AAPL’s OE exceeds its accounting EPS ($6.39 vs $6.15), which in turn exceeds its free cash flow (FCF, $6.05). The fact that its accounting EPS exceeds its FCF consistently already provides a sign that the accounting EPS underestimates its true earning power.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88e8c230bba66e65fb153d6819d25963\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As such, in this price range, its true P/E is even below what is on the surface. At the lower end of this range, a price of $125 corresponds to an owner&#39;s earnings P/E of only 19.6x as shown. A stock with AAPL’s profitability is a no-brainer at valuations below 20x P/E. With a ROCE in the 80% to 90% range, a 5% investment rate would result in 4% to 5% organic real growth rates (before inflation adjustments). An owners’ P/E ratio of 20x provides a 5% owners&#39; earnings yield, leading to a total return in the double digits (again without any inflation escalator).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The next chart below puts the above in a broader context. As seen, AAPL is expected to offer approximately 10% annual return (&#34;ROI&#34;) in the long run at an entry price of $125 and about 8% at a price of $175. In contrast, the overall market is estimated to provide less than 6% of ROI in the long run due to its much lower ROCE and about the same P/E.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921243de870754be204b0ca4520e556b\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Yahoo! data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo! data</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks And Final Thoughts</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Apple faces several ongoing headwinds. Sales for the more recent quarter were down 5%, while earnings declined a little over 10%. Unfavorable currency effects played a major role, trimming the top line by 8%. Additionally, COVID-19-related disruptions crimped the supply of Pro and Pro Max iPhones. As a result, sales of the flagship smartphone fell by about 8%. Inflation and the war in Ukraine also weighed on results. These uncertainties are capsulated in the large variance in consensus estimates shown below. For instance, the consensus EPS for 2023 ranges from $5.38 to $6.40, a variance of 19%. The variance further widens to 27% for 2024 and 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">These headwinds are likely to keep its stock price range bound in the near term. And the thesis is precise that such a consolidation range is not a bad thing for AAPL investors, either short-term or long-term investors. For swing traders, a $125 to $175 range offers as much volatility as its more exciting days in a more reasonable P/E range. And for long-term investors, AAPL is projected to offer far superior return potential than the overall equity (or bond) market.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f530e3b97a2de540fe7ce959cfb6dd86\" alt=\"Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data\" title=\"Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\"/><span>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Dead Money? I Disagree</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Dead Money? I Disagree\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-25 22:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595828-apple-dead-money-disagree><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple stock prices have been stuck in a $125-$175 consolidation range for more than 2 years now.If you have begun to consider it as dead money and are starting to lose patience, this article is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595828-apple-dead-money-disagree\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595828-apple-dead-money-disagree","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1196929456","content_text":"SummaryApple stock prices have been stuck in a $125-$175 consolidation range for more than 2 years now.If you have begun to consider it as dead money and are starting to lose patience, this article is for you.The lower end of this range offers an excellent entry point for long-term holding, with a very asymmetric return profile.And for swing trading, this range actually offers about the same level of volatility as its more exciting days.ThesisAfter enjoying a spectacular bull ride between 2020 and 2021, Apple's stock prices have been oscillating in a $125~$175 range for almost 3 years now (see the next chart below). You have good reasons to start thinking if it has become dead money.And this article will show why, for me, this range is a blessing. I only wish it could stay in this range longer, so I can opportunistically keep nibbling here and there. In the remainder of this article, I will detail my analysis of a few key trigger points that could be of interest to both swing traders and also long-term investors. In particular, you will see that:For swing traders, this seemingly boring range actually offers as much volatility as its more exciting days. And yet, the valuation multiples are much more reasonable (in a P/E range of about 20x to 28x), which provides better fundamental protection.For long-term investors, I will explain why buying AAPL (or any stock with fundamentals similar to AAPL) with P/E close to 20x is a no-brainer. At such multiples, AAPL is projected to offer about 10% annual return, almost double that of the overall market, and close to 3x of treasury bond yields. The risk-adjusted return is even higher, as I consider investment in AAPL to be much safer than in the overall equity market.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataSwing Trading OpportunitiesIf you are getting bored by the consolidation range, the next chart below might change your mind. The chart shows the stock’s volatility in the past 5 years as measured by its price corrections off high. As seen, the stock has been as volatile in this range as it has been between 2019 and 2022. To wit, the stock is currently 9.3% off its recent peak price. And the stock suffered a correction of 30%+ in early 2023. Off-high corrections close to this magnitude only occurred twice in the past five years: first at the end of 2018 and then in earlier 2023. And in each instance, the stock price rebounded swiftly afterward.In the meantime, the P/E multiples are also much more reasonable in this price range (corresponding to a P/E range of 20x to 28x), offering much better fundamental protection for the trades. In contrast, the stock was priced in a P/E range of 30 to 40 during 2020 and 2021.Next, we will see the implications of such P/E multiples for long-term holding.Source: Seeking Alpha dataStable And Robust Long-term Growth PotentialInvestors should not expect - and do not need - hyper-growth at AAPL anymore. In the long term, a healthy but stable growth curve, if bought at the right price, is always more profitable.And AAPL is one of the best stocks offering these traits. First, it enjoys enviable capital allocation flexibility and yet continues to invest with discipline in its growth. The chart below summarizes the company's maintenance and growth capital spending (for details on these concepts, refer to my previous article here). As seen, the company's total depreciation and amortization (\"TDA\") has been $11.3 billion on average, while its capital expenditures (CAPEX) have been on average $10.57 billion, BELOW its TDA.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataTraditional wisdom is to approximate a business’ maintenance CAPEX by the TDA, then use the difference to approximate its growth CAPEX. Here, AAPL’s total CAPEX is less than its TDA on average. It of course does not mean that AAPL has not been investing in growth (the fact that its EPS has been growing robustly in the past settles this doubt).The reason is that AAPL’s business model is so good that A) it can offload a good part of its CAPEX to the contractors (Foxconn serves as a notable example) it outsources, B) it uses its existing assets very efficiently, which reduces the need for significant capital expenditure, and C) its return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is so high that even a small amount of growth CAPEX investment can fuel healthy growth. We will elaborate on these points in more detail next.The $125-175 Range AgainAs mentioned earlier, a price range of $125 and $175 translates into a P/E range of about 20x to 28x, which is a much more reasonable range as illustrated by the chart below. In my opinion, this P/E range is very attractive both in relative and absolute terms. To put this into perspective, AAPL has been trading at an average P/E of 25.5x as shown below and the overall market (approximated by the S&P 500) is valued at around 22x P/E as of this writing.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataAnd as aforementioned, AAPL’s business model is such that it does not need too much maintenance CAPEX. As a result, a good part of its total CAPEX is actually growth CAPEX so that its owners' earnings (“OE”) are much higher than its accounting EPS.The table below shows my estimate of AAPL’s FWD OE, in comparison to its accounting EPS and cash flows. The table was made following Greenwald’s method (detailed in my earlier article or Greenwald’s book, Value Investing). As seen, my estimate of AAPL’s OE exceeds its accounting EPS ($6.39 vs $6.15), which in turn exceeds its free cash flow (FCF, $6.05). The fact that its accounting EPS exceeds its FCF consistently already provides a sign that the accounting EPS underestimates its true earning power.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataAs such, in this price range, its true P/E is even below what is on the surface. At the lower end of this range, a price of $125 corresponds to an owner's earnings P/E of only 19.6x as shown. A stock with AAPL’s profitability is a no-brainer at valuations below 20x P/E. With a ROCE in the 80% to 90% range, a 5% investment rate would result in 4% to 5% organic real growth rates (before inflation adjustments). An owners’ P/E ratio of 20x provides a 5% owners' earnings yield, leading to a total return in the double digits (again without any inflation escalator).The next chart below puts the above in a broader context. As seen, AAPL is expected to offer approximately 10% annual return (\"ROI\") in the long run at an entry price of $125 and about 8% at a price of $175. In contrast, the overall market is estimated to provide less than 6% of ROI in the long run due to its much lower ROCE and about the same P/E.Source: Author based on Yahoo! dataRisks And Final ThoughtsApple faces several ongoing headwinds. Sales for the more recent quarter were down 5%, while earnings declined a little over 10%. Unfavorable currency effects played a major role, trimming the top line by 8%. Additionally, COVID-19-related disruptions crimped the supply of Pro and Pro Max iPhones. As a result, sales of the flagship smartphone fell by about 8%. Inflation and the war in Ukraine also weighed on results. These uncertainties are capsulated in the large variance in consensus estimates shown below. For instance, the consensus EPS for 2023 ranges from $5.38 to $6.40, a variance of 19%. The variance further widens to 27% for 2024 and 2025.These headwinds are likely to keep its stock price range bound in the near term. And the thesis is precise that such a consolidation range is not a bad thing for AAPL investors, either short-term or long-term investors. For swing traders, a $125 to $175 range offers as much volatility as its more exciting days in a more reasonable P/E range. And for long-term investors, AAPL is projected to offer far superior return potential than the overall equity (or bond) market.Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}