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2022-06-25
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Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?
Nvidia could face some upcoming bumps in the road.
Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?
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2022-06-25
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What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?
As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strate
What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?
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2022-06-05
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2022-06-03
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23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122272925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Nvidia could face some upcoming bumps in the road.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSA recession might hurt the semiconductor industry.But Nvidia is a market leader with significant long-term growth opportunities.Buying the stock during a time of weakness could position long...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-24 23:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSA recession might hurt the semiconductor industry.But Nvidia is a market leader with significant long-term growth opportunities.Buying the stock during a time of weakness could position long...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/22/is-nvidia-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122272925","content_text":"KEY POINTSA recession might hurt the semiconductor industry.But Nvidia is a market leader with significant long-term growth opportunities.Buying the stock during a time of weakness could position long-term investors for solid gains.Semiconductor company Nvidia has had a rough year, falling more than 50% from its high as volatility continues to shake Wall Street.Worries over a potential recession could further pressure shares; semiconductors have traditionally been an industry of booms and busts.It might feel wrong, but here's why leaning into the uncertainty rather than avoiding it could prove lucrative for Nvidia investors in the long run.Short-term industry challenges?Nvidia is the market leader in discrete graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used heavily in specific applications like gaming, cryptocurrency mining, artificial intelligence (AI), and others where high computing power is needed.There's increasing talk about a potential recession, which could mean less consumer spending and less demand for semiconductors. There's already an ongoing bear market in cryptocurrency, which could discourage people from investing in the GPUs and other resources needed for mining.Nvidia guided for solid fiscal 2023 second-quarter performance, calling for $8.1 billion in revenue, a 24% year-over-year increase. The fiscal 2023 first quarter ended May 1, so the second quarter will cover May through July; investors will want to pay close attention to management's guidance for the next quarter. It could provide a good look at how management expects the business to perform in the fall if the economy does slow down in the coming months.Long-term opportunities remain intactIt's possible that a recession does come, and Nvidia's growth will slow. But this is where having a long-term time horizon can be an investor's superpower. You don't need to worry about the short-term ups and downs of the industry; you can focus on the big picture.The long-term need for semiconductors figures to rise dramatically over time. Research firm McKinsey estimates that the global market for semiconductors could grow from $600 billion to $1 trillion by 2030.AI could play a big part in this demand. Emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles, digital-world creation, and edge computing require computing power on site and in data centers to support the immense loads of information generated.Nvidia's data center business ended fiscal 2022 on a $13 billion revenue pace, up from just $5 billion two years prior. The company was the world's market leader in discrete GPUs (meaning dedicated GPUs instead of ones being built into the computer processor) at 83% in 2021.Nvidia could capture much of this industry growth and has built an extensive ecosystem to protect its market share. It's developed a full stack for AI, providing the GPU hardware, software, and developer tools for a turnkey system to create AI technologies on top of Nvidia's products.What does all of this mean? The semiconductor market might hit the occasional bump, but Nvidia is still poised to grow over the years ahead. Semiconductors are the building blocks of technology, and the world will only need more as time goes on.Buying into the painUnderstandably, people typically hate buying when stocks go down; it can feel painful and only worsen if the stock keeps falling after you buy. Nobody knows what a stock will do tomorrow.But isn't a falling share price good if you're optimistic about the company's long-term direction? It's like getting something on sale; you should embrace the market's discount.Below, you can see Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which shows you how much you're paying for a piece of Nvidia's profits. People were happy to pay more than $300 for the stock, despite getting a poor value on their investment. The stock traded at a P/E of about 105 at its peak! The S&P 500 historically trades at a P/E of about 15, so Nvidia is very expensive compared to the broader market.NVDA DATA BY YCHARTS.But now, the stock's valuation has fallen dramatically to a P/E of 42, its lowest since late 2019. Analysts expect Nvidia to grow earnings per share (EPS) by an average of 16% annually over the next three to five years, a slowdown from the 43% rate it averaged over the previous five years.It's hard to call Nvidia a bargain with that in mind, but as the market leader in discrete GPUs, growth could accelerate during the next market cycle for semiconductors. Buying cyclical companies during moments of weakness can be a great way to position your portfolio for long-term rewards.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048010177,"gmtCreate":1656117873199,"gmtModify":1676535770161,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117084164910292","idStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048010177","repostId":"2246375209","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2246375209","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1656115431,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2246375209?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-25 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246375209","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.</p><p>Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.</p><p>That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.</p><p>Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.</p><p>Here are other highlights.</p><h3>Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?</h3><p>The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: "stagflation," "reflation," "soft landing" or "slump," and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.</p><p>Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a "soft landing" or "reflation," but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the "stagflation" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.</p><p>Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic "slump," which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b09a506a8b3c115174a93678658241\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBS</span></p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that "there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios."</p><h3>Opportunity in investment grade bonds</h3><p>One of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.</p><p>How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in "investing in the afterglow of a boom," Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.</p><p>As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.</p><p>"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields," the team said.</p><p>The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.</p><p>The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.</p><h3>Second-half rebound in stocks</h3><p>JP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.</p><p>Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cca5ebedab5af10b811ce0897b98c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.</span></p><p>Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.</p><p>"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Wall Street Expects in the Second Half of 2022?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-25 08:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.</p><p>Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.</p><p>That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.</p><p>Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.</p><p>Here are other highlights.</p><h3>Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?</h3><p>The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: "stagflation," "reflation," "soft landing" or "slump," and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.</p><p>Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a "soft landing" or "reflation," but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the "stagflation" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.</p><p>Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic "slump," which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b09a506a8b3c115174a93678658241\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBS</span></p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that "there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios."</p><h3>Opportunity in investment grade bonds</h3><p>One of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.</p><p>How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in "investing in the afterglow of a boom," Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.</p><p>As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.</p><p>"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields," the team said.</p><p>The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.</p><p>The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.</p><h3>Second-half rebound in stocks</h3><p>JP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.</p><p>Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81cca5ebedab5af10b811ce0897b98c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.</span></p><p>Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.</p><p>"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JNK":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays高收益债","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","UBS":"瑞银","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","BCS":"巴克莱银行","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4521":"英国银行股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","USB":"美国合众银行","C":"花旗","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246375209","content_text":"As the first half of 2022 draws to a close, Wall Street investment banks and their legions of strategists have been busy telling clients what they should expect in the second half of what has been an extraordinary year for markets as U.S. stocks head for their worst start in decades.Investment banks like JP Morgan Chase & Co., Barclays, UBS Group, Citigroup Inc and others have over the past week or two released their outlooks on what investors should expect in the second half of the year. MarketWatch has some of the highlights -- with one theme uniting them: uncertainty.That's largely because markets will hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With officials signaling an intention to remain data-dependent, the direction of monetary policy inevitably will depend on how inflation develops over the coming months.Another thing many banks agreed on was that a recession in the U.S. in the second half of the year looked unlikely -- or at the very least, not in their base case.Here are other highlights.Stagflation, reflation, soft landing or slump?The team at UBS divided their outlook into four scenarios: \"stagflation,\" \"reflation,\" \"soft landing\" or \"slump,\" and outlined what the reaction in stocks and bonds could look like in each case.Their best case scenario for stocks would be either a \"soft landing\" or \"reflation,\" but in each case, investors would see inflation pressures moderate while the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Under the \"stagflation\" scenario, stubborn inflation and tepid growth would drive both stocks and bonds lower, essentially marking a continuation of the trading patterns seen so far this year, where both bonds and stocks have taken a beating.Their worst case scenario for stocks would be the economic \"slump,\" which would likely involve a recession that's severe enough to prompt a dramatic shift in expectations surrounding corporate profits. However, in this scenario, the UBS team expects the growth shock would force the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates more quickly.THE OUTLOOK FOR STOCKS AND BONDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP. SOURCE: UBSMark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said in the mid-year outlook that \"there are a lot of potential outcomes for markets, and the only near-certainty is that the path to the end of the year will be a volatile one. It can feel overwhelming for investors considering how to position their portfolios.\"Opportunity in investment grade bondsOne of the most vexing aspects of the year to date -- at least, as far as individual investors are concerned -- is the paucity of investment strategies producing positive returns. Commodities have worked well, and any investors intrepid enough to bet against stocks, or invest in volatility-linked products, probably made money. But investors who ascribe to the rules of the 60/40 portfolio have been beset by losses in both their stock and bond portfolios.How might investors hedge against this going forward? David Bailin, Citigroup's chief investment officer, shared some thoughts on this in \"investing in the afterglow of a boom,\" Citi Global Wealth Investment's mid-year outlook.As negative real rates weigh on equities, while also sapping the return on bonds, Citi is pitching investment-grade bonds as a kind of happy medium.\"Our view is that most of the expected US tightening is now embedded in Treasury yields. We believe it is possible that rates will peak this year, as US GDP growth decelerates rapidly. In turn, this will likely see reduced inflation readings, perhapsallowing the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. For investors, these higher yields may represent an attractive level at which to buy. We believe certain fixed-income assets now offer an 'antidote' to the 'cash thief,' given their higher yields,\" the team said.The biggest corporate bond exchange-traded funds ended the week higher, but with the large iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond (ETLQD) still 16.9% lower on the year so far. The SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was 15.7% lower on the year and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) was down 13.8%, according to FactSet.The S&P 500 index closed higher Friday as stocks rallied, but still was down 17.9% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 13.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was 25.8% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet data.Second-half rebound in stocksJP Morgan Global Research carved out a position as one of the most bullish research shops on Wall Street. The mid-year outlook from the bank's equity strategists was hardly an exception.Simply put, the team from JP Morgan recommends buying cyclicals and shunning defensive stocks, arguing that cyclicals like the energy sector are more attractively valued at the moment. The team also sees opportunity in small cap and growth stocks.DEFENSIVE STOCKS LIKE UTILITIES AND CONSUMER STAPLE AREN’T AS ATTRACTIVELY VALUED AS THEIR GROWTH PEERS.Defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities, on the other hand, present less opportunity, and more risk.\"...[T]hese sectors remain crowded with record relative valuation which we see as vulnerable to rotation under both a scenario of a return to mid-cycle recovery and growth...and recession.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBS":0.9,"JNK":0.9,"USB":0.9,"HYG":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BCS":0.9,"C":0.9,"LQD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059738916,"gmtCreate":1654428406935,"gmtModify":1676535446299,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117084164910292","idStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice ","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059738916","repostId":"1175826570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050794741,"gmtCreate":1654236933284,"gmtModify":1676535418364,"author":{"id":"4117084164910292","authorId":"4117084164910292","name":"Oddly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4117084164910292","idStr":"4117084164910292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050794741","repostId":"2240660477","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}
