To The Moon

Not every Fed hiking cycle plays out the same way. History points to two things that matter a lot for equities: 🌡️ Higher inflation when the Fed starts hiking has generally been associated with weaker stock market performance. ⚡ Faster tightening has also tended to create more pressure on equities. That distinction matters for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ A slow, measured hiking cycle is one thing. A Fed that has to respond to already-high inflation with aggressive rate increases is a very different setup. The headline may simply be “Fed is hiking.” The market reaction depends heavily on how hot inflation is and how quickly

Only 22% of firms say they’re using AI in their regular business functions. We’re very early. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$

🔥 The most important number from tonight’s $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings call wasn’t revenue. It was CapEx. CFO Colette Kress said top-five hyperscaler CapEx could hit nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. That’s the key takeaway. The market had been looking for $1.3T in 2028. Nvidia just pulled that level forward to 2027. In other words, the AI infrastructure spending cycle isn’t slowing down. It’s accelerating. And that has a much broader read-through: 🔹 $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ — the semiconductor complex 🔹 $Micron Technology(MU)$ — memory and HBM 🔹 $Lumentum(LITE)$ — optical connectivity 🔹

YTD, Goldman $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ ’s Momentum bucket has had 24 distinct 1-day selloffs of more than -5%. That is already more than the prior 5 years COMBINED. “Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established." - George Soros

It’s not just about AI hype. Liquidity remains a major driver of the market. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been closely tracking Global M2 with an approximately 11-week lag, and that relationship is currently pointing toward a potential 8,200 level for the index. At the same time, the AI infrastructure boom is starting to show up in corporate earnings. Massive spending on data centers, chips, power, networking and related infrastructure is creating a broad earnings tailwind across the market. The combination of expanding liquidity and accelerating AI-driven earnings could provide the S&P 500 with another leg higher.

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ just dropped a map of the entire AI optics supply chain. Goldman just mapped the AI optics supply chain from chips to testing. The list covers the major publicly traded players across nearly every layer of the ecosystem. Chip / xPU Design:$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Cisco(CSCO)$ MediaTek Photonic & Electronic ICs:$Lumentum(LITE)$

The market has been carried by everything except AI for the last 3 months. 3M returns… 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ex-AI: +8.4% Broad AI: 0%, despite being 4x more volatile 🐯🪙 Share your choice and reasoning in the comments — thoughtful views may receive Tiger Coins! Good allocation isn’t just about investing — it’s also about keeping everyday life organised. Just like a well-balanced portfolio, the right organisation can make business trips, travel and workouts a little easier. The new Tiger Toiletry Bag features a dual-layer dry & wet separation design with plenty of space to keep your essentials neatly organised, wherever you go. Redeem the new Tiger Toiletry Bag now in Tiger Coin Mall.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ realized vol dispersion is at levels last seen during the Dot Com Bubble unwind. In other words, individual stocks are diverging wildly from the index itself.

Despite a historic Momentum crash in July… Momentum crowding is STILL in the 93rd %ile versus history. 🤯 $iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF(MTUM)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$

We called the $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ breakdown weeks ago, and it just hit my first downside target. Here's what comes next... When it rains, it pours. The selling pressure is starting to accelerate this week. It started overnight in Korea, where the KOSPI crashed -11% in a single session. Samsung fell -13% and SK Hynix fell -15%. Then the US opened, and it was another bloodbath for AI stocks today. Semis fell -4.5% on the day. At its lows, SOX traded down to $10,799. That was my first downside target. 🎯🎯🎯 I called for a SOX move down to $10.6k-$10.8k ~3 weeks ago (7/7) in “Chip Wrecked” (-11% ago). Today, we tagged my $10.8k target (at lows). Week after week, we have given it to you straight. We told you last Tuesday’s bounce was N