苏36

    • 苏36苏36
      ·11:27
      My stance is to buy the businesses, not the falling prices. Thursday's sell-off may have created opportunities, but a 10% correction does not automatically make AI stocks undervalued. I would rank the four differently. NVDA and TSM remain my preferred names because their businesses are tied to actual chip demand and infrastructure deployment. MSFT deserves attention for its ability to monetize AI through existing cloud and software customers. CRWV is more speculative because financing costs, debt obligations and capacity utilization can quickly change its investment thesis. The bigger issue is that AI's long-term potential is not in question; the speed of monetization is. Investors previously rewarded spending, but now demand proof of returns. My strategy: Scale into quality companies gra

      Nasdaq Plunges 5.52%: Buy the AI Dip or Cut Risk? Goldman Sachs was Selling

      @Capital_Insights:
      Hey Tigers 🐯! Wednesday brought a post-election relief rally. Thursday brought the Nasdaq Composite’s biggest one-day fall in 19 months. Goldman Sachs’ trading desk saw panicked selling and tentative buying interest. A fund manager at Argent Capital Management called the moves outsized. Yet the market’s concern has shifted toward how quickly AI investment can generate revenue and cash. [1][2] That leaves a harder question than “Is AI still growing?”: How much of this sell-off reflects temporary selling pressure, and how much reflects a weaker path to earnings? 1️⃣ A Sell-Off Big Enough to Reset the Debate At the November 5 U.S. close, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, the S&P 500 lost 4.36% to 7,353.73, and the Dow dropped 3.44%. The Nasdaq finished more than 10% below its
      Nasdaq Plunges 5.52%: Buy the AI Dip or Cut Risk? Goldman Sachs was Selling
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11:26
      Circle's biggest opportunity is not simply a Bitcoin rally; it is becoming infrastructure for digital payments. Q3 results look impressive, but investors must look beyond headline numbers. The $182 million ARC presale contribution boosted reported revenue, while declining USDC circulation and rising distribution costs raise questions about sustainable profitability. Three factors will determine CRCL's long-term valuation: First, USDC needs sustained circulation growth, not temporary crypto speculation. Second, exchange partnerships must generate enough volume to offset lower margins. Third, CPN and ARC must develop into meaningful recurring revenue businesses. My view: Circle has an attractive long-term business model, but the $115 target requires execution, not optimism. I would wait for
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 21:15
      The October selloff may not be over, but the market is showing signs of a leadership rotation. Microsoft and Amazon's earnings show that AI demand remains strong. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway, Visa and Mastercard reaching record highs tell another story: investors are increasingly rewarding cash flow, pricing power and predictable earnings. Visa's latest results delivered 13% revenue growth, demonstrating the resilience of global payment networks. I believe the next market phase will be less about buying every AI stock and more about identifying companies that convert growth into cash. Three signals matter most: AI capex translating into revenue, free cash flow stabilising, and earnings upgrades spreading beyond technology. My view: October was a warning, not necessarily the start of a b
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 21:02
      I believe energy and utilities are among the biggest beneficiaries of today's macro environment. Energy companies benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainty, while utilities gain from rising electricity demand driven by AI data centres. However, there is a difference between temporary tailwinds and structural growth. Higher oil prices may boost profits today but also fuel inflation and weaken consumer spending. AI-driven power demand could support a much longer investment cycle. I would focus on companies with pricing power, strong balance sheets and sustainable cash flow rather than simply chasing sector momentum. The real opportunity is not finding the hottest sector, but identifying businesses that can turn macro advantages into lasting profits.
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 20:58
      I would choose Costco (COST) as one of the strongest examples of a durable economic moat. What makes Costco special is not simply its low prices, but its membership business model. Customers pay an annual fee for access, giving Costco a recurring revenue stream while encouraging repeat purchases. This creates a powerful combination of customer loyalty, economies of scale and cost advantages. The numbers support this argument. In FY2025, Costco generated $5.32 billion in membership fee revenue, up 10% year over year. Its renewal rate reached 92.3% in the US and Canada. That is not just customer satisfaction; it is evidence of a business model customers are willing to keep paying for. However, even an excellent business can become a poor investment if purchased at an excessive valuation. My
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 20:54
      One lesson I find particularly important is that a stock can look cheap on the screen but be expensive in reality. Investors often focus too much on share prices, P/E ratios and potential upside, while overlooking what is happening behind the balance sheet. For me, the current ratio and debt-to-equity ratio are not just accounting indicators; they reveal how much financial pressure a company is carrying. A business with weak liquidity may eventually need to issue new shares, diluting existing shareholders. Meanwhile, excessive leverage can turn a temporary business slowdown into a serious financial problem. However, low debt does not automatically mean a good investment either. The real question is whether management can generate sustainable returns from its capital. Ultimately, I would r
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 18:16
      My Pick: ① Healthcare Reform I would choose healthcare reform, particularly companies exposed to Medicaid and ACA insurance markets. The opportunity is not simply increased healthcare funding. It is reduced policy uncertainty. Centene ($CNC), Molina Healthcare ($MOH), and HCA Healthcare ($HCA) could benefit if Medicaid cuts are delayed or ACA subsidies restored. However, political promises are not earnings growth. Senate voting requirements and Trump's veto power make sweeping reforms difficult. The new Congress also takes office only in January 2027. I would monitor legislative progress, medical cost ratios, and earnings guidance rather than chase election-driven rallies. The real opportunity is finding companies whose profits can improve even if only part of the proposed reforms becomes
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 15:41
      A. DBS — customer growth and dividends. I lean towards DBS, but a strong bank is not necessarily an attractive stock at every price. Despite a 5% decline in quarterly profit, DBS delivered 4% growth in net interest income, while wealth assets reached S$544 billion. Its net interest margin also stabilised at 1.87% quarter on quarter. UOB faces greater funding-cost pressure. Record fee income is encouraging, but weaker margin guidance suggests its earnings recovery needs more time. However, DBS is not automatically cheap. Its S$0.81 dividend includes capital returns, which should not be mistaken for recurring income. My strategy: Keep DBS on the watchlist, avoid chasing dividends, and wait for OCBC's November 6 results. Sustainable earnings growth matters more than an attractive dividend hea
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 12:35
      [你懂的]  AI Needs More Power. Can Navitas Semiconductor Turn That Demand into Profits? For the past two years, investors have focused heavily on AI chips, GPUs, high-bandwidth memory and data-center servers. But as AI infrastructure expands, another bottleneck is becoming increasingly important: electricity. AI data centers require enormous amounts of power. Delivering that electricity efficiently, managing heat and reducing energy losses are becoming critical engineering challenges. This creates an opportunity for companies operating outside the traditional GPU market. One company worth examining is $Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS)$, a small semiconductor manufacturer specializing in advanced power technologies. Unlike NVIDIA, Navitas does not produce AI processors. Instead, it devel
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    • 苏36苏36
      ·11-05 12:06
      I would favor studying $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ over $Ford(F)$ at this stage, not simply because Tesla is ahead, but because it already has an operating energy-storage business that investors can evaluate Tesla's Q3 numbers reveal an interesting contradiction: storage deployments increased approximately 10% year over year, while energy generation and storage revenue declined 16%. This highlights why shipment growth alone does not guarantee earnings growth. Product mix, pricing and delivery timing matter Ford offers an interesting longer-term opportunity, but its 2027 delivery target means investors are still betting on execution rather than proven profitability My priority would be revenue growth, gross profit and cash generation, in that order. Backlogs can create excitement, and GWh figures

      Morgan Stanley Sees an 80GW-Plus Power Shortfall: Where Could AI Storage Demand Flow?

      @Capital_Insights:
      Hey Tigers 🐯! The next constraint on AI growth may be how quickly a data center can secure reliable power. In a November 3 discussion, Morgan Stanley analysts David Arcaro and Andrew Percoco outlined a projected power shortfall of more than 80GW by 2029 and a growing role for on-site generation and battery storage.[1] That longer-term outlook sits alongside a difficult market reaction. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 gained 1.6% on November 4 while its energy sector fell 4.8%, as investors reassessed the post-election policy outlook.[4] The investment question is which companies can turn demand for electricity into delivered systems, revenue and durable profits. 1️⃣ What Is Actually Holding AI Power Back? Arcaro's 80GW-plus estimate comes from a discussion of U.S. utilities and data-
      Morgan Stanley Sees an 80GW-Plus Power Shortfall: Where Could AI Storage Demand Flow?
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