FAITHFULLY
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- August 31 — Last Day of Summer, First Day of Reckoning Three things I'm watching as we close out August and head into what is historically the market's worst month. 1. The Warsh overhang is real Friday's Jackson Hole speech was more hawkish than the market wanted. Warsh said inflation is "too high" and the Fed "has more work to do" — stopping just short of explicitly telegraphing a September hike. With the FOMC meeting on September 16, the probability of a hike has moved from one-in-three to above one-in-two. That repricing isn't fully done. High-multiple tech — NVDA, MRVL, BE — faces continued multiple compression if the long end o 2. The "buy the earnings beat" trade is broken this cycle MRVL beat on revenue and EPS, guided to 50% growth, and fell 10%. A week earlier MU did the same. The
