At roughly $154.90, USO 🛢️ looks like a compelling tactical short on a mean-reversion view. The current price is near its 52-week high and appears to embed a large, conflict-driven supply and shipping-risk premium. If disrupted production and trade flows normalize—as the base case expects during 2027—the premium should unwind. Higher prices also encourage supply response while curbing demand, reinforcing the downside once scarcity fears ease. “normal” USO reference is around $70, with a broad normal range of roughly $60–80. $90–100 remains elevated; $165–170 is a disruption/shock regime. Timeframe: base case expects most disrupted oil flows to normalize around Q2 2027 STRAT✨: A synthetic short is a strategy you can consider in current scenario often results in a credit - allowing you
Follow $100 through Palantir. 🖊️ $43 US commercial. $41 US government. $16 overseas. About $47 in GAAP operating profit. $62 on an adjusted basis. Here’s why those are different—and what the cash tells us. A strong business still needs the right price. How much future success are you already paying for? The Finance Butler — Daniel Phang Q3 2026 | Rounded USD | Educational, not financial advice. Source: Palantir, 2 Nov 2026 earnings release (source link in companion notes). #Palantir #PLTR #Earnings #StockMarket #Investing #FinanceExplained #TheFinanceButler $Palantir(PLTR)$
Mid-Term Elections and the possible effect on the US markets
The US midterms can change Congress. They do not change the president. That distinction matters when thinking about the stock market. Republicans keeping the House and Senate means unified government. Democrats winning both means a Democratic Congress working with a Republican president. One chamber each also means divided government, with different powers depending on who controls the Senate. So what does history show? J.P. Morgan’s study of 1937–2025 reports average annual S&P 500 total returns of: → 16.3% under a Republican president with unified Republican government. → 9.4% under a Republican president with divided government, where the opposition controlled at least one chamber. The source chart lists 9 calendar-year observations for the first group and 32 for the second. These a
Meta’s revenue grew 26%. Its free cash flow turned negative. That’s the tension I’m watching in Meta’s Q3 2026 results. Revenue reached $64.60 billion, but capital expenditure exceeded operating cash flow, leaving free cash flow at negative $2.12 billion. The 265% jump in reported EPS also needs context. Last year included a substantial tax charge; this quarter includes a legal charge. Excluding those respective charges, EPS was $7.40 versus $7.25—about 2.1% higher. That removes the specified charges; it isn’t a full normalization of earnings. Sources: Meta’s 2026 release and 2025 release. My focus from here: how quickly can Meta translate its investment into stronger cash generation? Swipe through for the earnings context, cash flow and outlook. What are you watching most closely: gro
Yesterday a friend shared a post on how Chinese investors are building their own "golden goose" strategy 🪿 It got me thinking — how much capital does one actually need to invest for this to realistically play out in the Singapore stock market? So naturally, I ran the numbers and came up with a report 🤣 The idea 💡: Everyone knows "pay yourself first." Nobody talks about the reverse: getting paid to stay insured. What I wanted was to build a dividend engine, point the payouts at your critical illness premium, and the insurance becomes effectively invisible. You never feel it leave your pocket. I did the full homework: how big the engine needs to be, which engines are actually reliable, and what it looks like after 30 years. It's interesting that our Singapore market is one of the best places
Oil is easing—but has the Hormuz supply shock really eased? If you saw my previous post, you’ll know I’m watching for mean reversion in oil. Today’s move is encouraging for that thesis: USO was recently around $148.23, down $5.59 (3.63%), while WTI also fell sharply. One possible reason: more Middle Eastern crude is still finding ways to reach buyers, despite the disruption. Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased exports through Hormuz after its East–West Pipeline was attacked. Reuters reported that 22 tankers carrying around 42 million barrels exited the strait during the week of September 13. But the wider picture is still far from normal: just 17 commodity vessels transited over the weekend, compared with roughly 125 vessels a day before the war. Tanker availability and shipping costs al