To The Moon

The biggest takeaway from this week’s selloff isn’t the disagreement between AI leaders. It’s whether that debate eventually changes real-world compute spending. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei has renewed calls for a slower, more safety-focused approach, while OpenAI’s Sam Altman has also backed greater caution. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has taken the opposite view, arguing against slowing AI progress.  That disagreement helped trigger a sharp Monday selloff across semiconductors, but Tuesday brought some recovery. Reuters reported the PHLX semiconductor index fell 5.9% Monday, while AI-linked chip stocks subsequently rebounded.  📈 Bull case AI infrastructure spending may continue even if frontier-model development becomes more cautious. Inference, enterprise AI, networking, memory and data-cent

Memory stocks moved together when the AI-demand story was simple: more data centers → more HBM/DRAM/storage demand → tighter supply → higher prices. But Tuesday looked different. Micron held up while SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate weakened. That divergence matters because investors may be moving beyond the broad “memory prices are rising” narrative and asking a more important question: which companies actually capture the earnings upside? 📈 Bull case: AI infrastructure spending remains strong, HBM demand stays tight, and pricing power supports margins. 📉 Bear case: Expectations and valuations are already elevated. If pricing momentum slows or supply improves, the most expensive names could face pressure even if AI demand remains healthy. For me, the next big checkpoint is Micron’s Se

I’d pick C. 💡 If there’s no USD cash available to settle a US stock purchase, the position can result in a USD margin loan, with interest potentially accruing on the borrowed amount. The key lesson: having AUD cash doesn’t automatically mean you have USD cash available without financing implications.

Markets are heading into the Fed decision with a 25 bps hike largely expected. Futures were pricing roughly a 92% probability of a move to 3.75%–4.00% as of Sept. 16.  That makes the hike itself almost secondary. The real market test is the message that comes after it. 👀 If the Fed signals that inflation, oil and rising Treasury yields could require further tightening, the current “priced in” argument gets challenged quickly. The 10-year Treasury briefly moved above 5%, while oil remained above $100 — a combination that keeps pressure on financial conditions.  🟢 What could support stocks • Strong corporate earnings • Economic growth holding up • A hike that comes with relatively stable forward guidance • Investors already positioned for the move 🔴 What could pressure the market • More hi

I’m going with B — USD 22.19 💰. I’d calculate it as $10,000 × 7.99% × 10/360, which comes to about $22.19

B for me. 📈 $40,000 of buying power represents what the account could potentially access under the current margin requirements—not $40,000 of cash sitting in the account. I’d treat it as a ceiling, not a spending limit. 💡

I’d pick B — Maybe. 🤖🚗 Humanoid robots could become a major growth opportunity for China’s EV makers, but EVs are still the core revenue engine. I’d watch whether robotics moves from demos to real production, orders and profitability before pricing in a huge new growth story. 👀📈

I’d go with A — Local spending boost. 🇸🇬💰 If cash payouts actually happen, the most direct impact would likely be on consumer spending, especially retail, F&B and services. The bigger question is how much of the payout gets spent versus saved. 👀📈

B — A USD 300 loss. 📉 You shorted at $100 and bought back at $130, losing $30 × 10 shares = $300. With a short position, you lose when the stock price rises.

I'm watching Marathon Petroleum as oil stays above $100 and energy continues to show relative strength. The interesting part is that MPC isn’t just a bet on higher crude prices — refiners can benefit from strong refining margins and tight fuel markets. With the Fed decision today and the 10-year yield around 5%, I think energy is one sector worth watching if investors rotate away from rate-sensitive growth stocks. My focus today: Can $MPC keep outperforming while the broader market struggles? 👀⛽️ Not a buy call — just one I’ll be watching closely.