Oracle looks like a better long-term buy with a better margin of safety. There are worse stocks than $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ today, but $Oracle(ORCL)$ is just too good to pass on.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ Interesting setup right now, even if most people aren't paying attention. The Thursday drop from 142 to 136 came with 40 million volume, then Friday saw a move from 140.5 back to 138 with 25 million. Today will probably close around 136.5 or near Friday's open, likely around 20 million. Volume is drying up ahead of the macro waves. What this suggests is that absorption of the 136-140 range is mostly done. From here, two things could happen. If PPI/CPI surprise badly, that's a macro hit and there's nothing to be done about it. If they come in as expected or better, that would be the first sign for institutions. Then there's ASML and TSM. If both show demand is here, that clears the second fog behi
$Oracle(ORCL)$ The street is focused on elevated capex compressing near-term FCF, but that misses the underlying unit economics. Oracle is building capacity against signed, non-cancellable demand, which keeps idle overhead in check. Once these gigawatt-scale data centers come online, the drop-through to operating income should be substantial. Capex intensity is just the setup; operating leverage is the real story for long-term margin expansion.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ The similarities between these setups are hard to ignore. AMZN played out as expected. GOOGL looks like the next one that could follow a similar path.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ I get the feeling ORCL will explode on growth in the Asia data center market. It feels like a sleeper 10x company here. I don't know how they're doing it, but they're doing it.