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2021-05-24

CITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation; the USD/CNY exchange rate may reach 6.2.

中信债券明明认为当前人民币汇率走强动能仍然较强，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。

CITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation; the USD/CNY exchange rate may reach 6.2.

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Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, it subsequently returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the USD/RMB spot exchange rate was 6.44. We believe there is still room for the RMB to appreciate in the future, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall to 6.2.The RMB fluctuated more in both directions due to bullish and bearish factors, but strengthened overall.Since April this year, the RMB has resumed its strengthening trend, and the correlation between the USD/RMB spot exchange rate and the US Dollar Index has increased. The RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, with the USD/RMB spot exchange rate rising from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB was 6.44, a decrease of approximately 1.98% from the high point in 2021. After analysis, we believe the main reasons include: (1) In April, the US Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend due to factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the slowdown in the US economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe; (2) Weak employment and soaring inflation since May have triggered fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn have led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; (3) The high prosperity of China's foreign trade, economic recovery and the increased attractiveness of domestic assets driven by the development of its own comprehensive strength have all increased the demand for RMB and promoted the appreciation of RMB.Strong exports continue to support RMB demand.Constrained by the fact that my country's capital and financial accounts have not achieved full convertibility, the applicability of the interest rate parity theory has weakened, while the current account balance and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanatory power for exchange rates. Against the backdrop of global trade recovery and divergence, China's foreign trade took the lead in recovering. Considering the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, Japan and other places, it may have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Meanwhile, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to be high in 2021, boosting the trade surplus and providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB. From the perspective of the United States, the U.S. trade deficit has been gradually increasing since December 2020, reaching $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.The Federal Reserve is currently fluctuating left and right, but overall it remains dovish.By breaking down the nominal US Treasury yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we found that overall, the decline in real interest rates was greater, reflecting expectations of a weakening US economic recovery. The Federal Reserve remains dovish in its stance, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the necessity of maintaining low interest rates, and expects a low likelihood of policy tightening in the short term. Lower real interest rates, coupled with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, may lead to insufficient action on US Treasury yields. US Treasury yields are expected to influence the RMB exchange rate through the interest rate differential between China and the US. The current interest rate differential between China and the US is around 150 basis points, which is still above the safe boundary of 100 basis points. If the interest rate differential between China and the US continues to widen, it will further increase the allocation value of RMB assets, thereby driving up RMB demand and boosting RMB appreciation.Summary:The People's Bank of China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2021 stated: \"Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of 'risk neutrality,' and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.\" With the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB, and the continued opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will intensify, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. Considering factors such as my country's strong exports, the decline in US real interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance, we believe that the RMB exchange rate still has strengthening momentum, and the USD/CNY exchange rate may fall to 6.2.textSince June 2020, the RMB has experienced a period of strength, with the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB falling from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, it subsequently returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the USD/RMB spot exchange rate was 6.44. We believe there is still room for the RMB to appreciate in the future, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall to 6.2.<h3>The RMB fluctuated more in both directions due to bullish and bearish factors, but strengthened overall.</h3>Since April this year, the RMB has resumed its strengthening trend, and the correlation between the USD/RMB spot exchange rate and the US Dollar Index has increased.This round of RMB appreciation began at the end of May 2020. The spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB continued to decline from its high of 7.16 on May 28, 2020, and reached its lowest point of 6.42 in nearly a year on May 10, 2021, with a maximum drop of 10.34%. In the near term, the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, with the USD/RMB spot exchange rate rising from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB was 6.44, a decrease of approximately 1.98% from the high point in 2021. From the perspective of the US Dollar Index, its correlation with the US dollar to RMB spot exchange rate has historically fluctuated to some extent. For example, in January and February 2021, the US Dollar Index rose, while the RMB exchange rate remained relatively stable due to the support of foreign exchange settlement and sales. Since March 2021, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate has once again maintained a similar trend to that in the US Dollar Index, and the correlation between the two has increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60537f63bd0a3e72233a06121aa63e6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">the US Dollar Index initially rose and then fell this year.In Q2-Q4 2020, the widening interest rate differential between China and the United States increased the allocation value of Chinese assets, leading to the depreciation of the US dollar.The 10-year Treasury Bond spread between the two countries has a guiding effect on capital flows, thereby causing changes in money demand. Taking China and the United States as examples, after the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in the United States in March 2020, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury Bond fell rapidly to around 0.7%, while China's 10-year Treasury Bond remained around 2.6%. During Q2-Q4 2020, the interest rate differential between China and the United States widened significantly, exceeding 200 basis points in mid-May. Coupled with the influence of risk aversion, the value of Chinese asset allocation increased, and the increased demand for RMB led to the depreciation of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ce66b49333c75187ee8aac41d770ca\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In Q1 2021, the continued improvement in the fundamentals of the US economy, coupled with the continued rise in US Treasury yields, led to the appreciation of the US dollar.In terms of macroeconomics, the US manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI repeatedly hit new highs in the first quarter of 2021, with the manufacturing PMI recording 64.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI recording 63.7 in March. Meanwhile, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose from 0.93% on January 4, 2021 to 1.74% on March 31, 2021, an increase of 81 basis points. The combined effect of strong economic fundamentals and the continued rise in US Treasury yields pushed the the US Dollar Index up from 89.88 on January 4 to 93.18 on March 31.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1531717ff143b371d542aa611c403005\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In April 2021, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend.Regarding the decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index in April, we believe one of the important considerations was the market's attitude towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. With the Fed's continued signals of maintaining easing, market concerns about the Fed's early tightening of monetary policy have decreased. Specifically, the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield in April was mainly due to a drop in real yields, while changes in inflation expectations were relatively limited during this period. Looking at the weights of the basket of currencies that make up the the US Dollar Index, the recovery of the European economy also influenced the trend of the US Dollar Index after April. In the US Dollar Index' calculations, the euro has a weighting of 57.6% and the pound has a weighting of 11.9%, totaling 69.5%. Therefore, the economic fundamentals of the European region have a certain indirect impact on the performance of the US Dollar Index. With the economic recovery of major European countries, currencies such as the euro and pound sterling have strengthened, leading to a weakening of the US Dollar Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9349bce137b7ee13960f792d6d5092\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since May 2021, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have fluctuated, leading to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.Entering May, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index fluctuated due to employment and inflation data. On the one hand, the released April non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the the US Dollar Index fell rapidly to around 90.40 in the short term. After rising, it continued to fluctuate downwards, closing down at 90.24 that day. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell nearly 10 basis points to around 1.48%. The inflation data released later far exceeded market expectations, with the unadjusted core CPI rising 3% year-on-year in April, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise sharply by 7.3 basis points after the data was released, breaking through a high of 1.69%, and the the US Dollar Index high approaching 91. With soaring prices but a weak job market, the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma, with increased volatility in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, leading to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20eed0fcbd91e3e34b939cca19924989\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db904f3feccd8bbf9abd11d5a3f213b1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RMB demand remains unchangedWith the continued economic recovery, my country's high prosperity in exports is an important reason for the current round of RMB strengthening.Foreign trade is an important angle for observing exchange rate trends. Theoretically, when a country has a foreign trade surplus (exports > imports), the demand for that country's local currency will increase, which in turn will trigger the appreciation of the local currency. Since the second quarter of 2020, my country's domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and industrial production has gradually recovered. At the same time, the overseas epidemic has broken out. Against the backdrop of a global supply and demand mismatch, my country's exports have rebounded first, and the trade balance has turned from reversal to smooth, maintaining a trade surplus for 14 consecutive months. Among them, the trade surplus reached its peak since the pandemic in November and December 2020, corresponding to the low point of the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB during the same period. Entering 2021, the trade surplus narrowed in the first quarter due to the recovery of overseas supply, and the appreciation trend of the RMB declined slightly. However, my country's imports and exports in April both far exceeded expectations, and the increase in the trade surplus once again boosted the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0e11048ba82ff6c46e4253a5431a91\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8504e7fbfb09da1366dbb31c42b65\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In April 2021, foreign capital continued to increase its holdings in my country's Treasury Bond, providing support for the RMB exchange rate.In March 2021, foreign capital slightly reduced its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, which also affected the depreciation of the RMB to some extent at that time. In April, foreign capital increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond again, and the total amount of bonds under custody in April was RMB 3,221.945 billion, an increase of RMB 64.86 billion compared with March. Regarding the main reasons for the rapid growth of foreign debt holdings, we believe there are the following points: (1) The decline in US Treasury yields during the same period has led to a widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US; (2) During the same period, the pandemic spread in emerging markets, and RMB assets attracted safe-haven funds.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48766b5bf800584ae7573bef5010b733\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In conclusion, this round of RMB appreciation can be explained from two dimensions: the US Dollar Index and RMB demand.First, the rapid recovery of the US economic fundamentals in Q1 2021, coupled with the continued rise in US Treasury yields, drove the appreciation of the US dollar; Subsequently, in April, affected by factors such as declining real interest rates, slowing momentum in the US economic recovery, and economic recovery in Europe, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend. Since May, employment and inflation readings have triggered slight fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Second, the high prosperity of China's foreign trade has supported the current strengthening of the RMB. The better-than-expected import and export data in April 2021 and the renewed increase in foreign investment in my country's Treasury Bond have further promoted the appreciation of the RMB.<h3>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand</h3>Constrained by the fact that my country's capital and financial accounts have not achieved full convertibility, the applicability of the interest rate parity theory has weakened, while the current account balance and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanatory power for exchange rates.The core idea of interest rate parity theory is that the forward exchange rate differential of one currency is equal to the interest rate differential between the two countries. Although this theory can explain fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate to some extent, its inherent assumptions include no transaction costs and full capital flow.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">Chinese capital</a>In an environment where financial accounts are not fully open, the effectiveness of the explanation has been weakened. In comparison, current account revenue and expenditure and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanation for exchange rates, especially since China's imports and exports are booming in the short term. Analysis from this perspective is more practical.Against the backdrop of global trade recovery and divergence, China's trade with the United States will continue to maintain high prosperity, providing support for the strengthening of the RMB.From a global perspective, China's exports have turned positive since June 2020, especially after October 2020, when they maintained a high growth rate of over 10%. In contrast, the export recovery of other major U.S. trading partners has been slower, with exports from the United Kingdom and Japan still showing negative growth as of February 2021 (-3.14% and -0.45%, respectively). Looking at Sino-US trade, since 2021, China's imports and exports to the US have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 10%. In April, the trade surplus increased by about 31.5% compared to the March data, affected by increased exports and decreased imports. Considering the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, Japan and other places, which has had a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Against this backdrop, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to be high in 2021, boosting the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfcf17db0d1c89c7deadc04210a55696\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40367f274a619c7a48b74bf3d9bd9abf\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The continued trade deficit in the United States is putting downward pressure on the US dollar.Since 2021, the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have remained high, with the manufacturing PMI in February-April and the non-manufacturing PMI in March-April both above 60. On the consumer demand side, the U.S. consumer confidence index also showed strong growth, with the University of Michigan consumer confidence index recording 88.3 in April 2021. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy and the recovery of consumer demand, the U.S. trade deficit has been gradually increasing since December 2020, reaching $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3880584b1e496d4a8785e91b5987a1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9483e3a12e032d55b227d57bf59c85\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve is currently fluctuating left and right, but overall remains dovish.Lower real interest rates, coupled with the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance, may lead to insufficient action on US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index.By breaking down the nominal US Treasury yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that: on the one hand, since mid-March 2021, the US real interest rate has turned from rising to falling, from -0.56% on March 18 to -0.88% on May 18, a change of 32 percentage points, reflecting the current expectation of a weakening US economic recovery. However, on the other hand, monetary easing combined with fiscal stimulus has led to a rapid rise in the US domestic inflation rate. Looking at inflation expectations, which affect nominal interest rates, inflation expectations have continued to rise since mid-March 2021, from 2.27% on March 18 to 2.52% on May 18, a change of 25 basis points. However, the Federal Reserve remains dovish in its attitude, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the necessity of maintaining low interest rates. It is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. The uneven economic recovery interacts with the Federal Reserve's policy stance, resulting in insufficient momentum in the 10-year US Treasury yield.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec0b88904ece48be0d90970212dfbff\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The impact of US Treasury yields is transmitted to the RMB exchange rate through the interest rate differential between China and the US.Under this logic, the decline in US Treasury yields has led to a widening interest rate differential between China and the US, which in turn reduces the allocation value of US dollar assets and increases the allocation value of RMB assets. From a historical average perspective, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has remained above 100 basis points over the past 11 years. From the perspective of investor behavior, we analyzed the interest rates between China and the United States, foreign capital purchases of Treasury Bond, and foreign capital purchases of Treasury Bond and policy bonds since data became available on the amount of bonds custodied by overseas institutions in 2014. The study found that a 100 basis point interest rate differential between China and the United States can basically keep foreign capital from flowing out of my country's bond market. The current interest rate differential between China and the US is around 150bps, which is still above the safe boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the US continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the allocation value of RMB assets, thereby driving up RMB demand and boosting RMB appreciation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d107df492386f6ddff04c00e2bd12e57\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>conclusion</h3>The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.Last month, Zhou Chengjun, director of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Moganshan Conference that \"the RMB will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the medium to long term. This is not only a result of China's sustained economic growth and the increasing relative purchasing power of the RMB, but also one of the consequences of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and continuous balance sheet expansion.\" Furthermore, the People's Bank of China's Q1 2021 Monetary Policy Implementation Report also mentioned: \"Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of 'risk neutrality,' and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.\" With the enhancement of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB, and the continued opening of its financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.In summary, we believe that the current strengthening momentum of the RMB exchange rate remains strong, and the USD/CNY exchange rate may fall to 6.2.From a foreign trade perspective, considering the recurrence of the pandemic in other parts of the world and the recovery of domestic demand in the United States, China's exports to the United States will remain strong in the short term, and the trade surplus may continue to rise, driving the RMB to continue to appreciate. On the other hand, the continued trade deficit in the United States also provides support for the RMB from the perspective of dollar depreciation. From the perspective of US Treasury bonds, the current slowdown in the US economic recovery has led to a decline in real interest rates. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, the possibility of the Fed tightening monetary policy in the short term is low. With the combined effect of these two factors, we believe that the RMB still has room for appreciation.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation; the USD/CNY exchange rate may reach 6.2.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Mingming: The RMB still has room for appreciation; the USD/CNY exchange rate may reach 6.2.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-05-24 09:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCore PointsSince June 2020, the RMB has experienced a period of strength, with the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB falling from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, it subsequently returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the USD/RMB spot exchange rate was 6.44. We believe there is still room for the RMB to appreciate in the future, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall to 6.2.The RMB fluctuated more in both directions due to bullish and bearish factors, but strengthened overall.Since April this year, the RMB has resumed its strengthening trend, and the correlation between the USD/RMB spot exchange rate and the US Dollar Index has increased. The RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, with the USD/RMB spot exchange rate rising from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB was 6.44, a decrease of approximately 1.98% from the high point in 2021. After analysis, we believe the main reasons include: (1) In April, the US Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend due to factors such as the decline in real interest rates, the slowdown in the US economic recovery momentum, and the economic recovery in Europe; (2) Weak employment and soaring inflation since May have triggered fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn have led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate; (3) The high prosperity of China's foreign trade, economic recovery and the increased attractiveness of domestic assets driven by the development of its own comprehensive strength have all increased the demand for RMB and promoted the appreciation of RMB.Strong exports continue to support RMB demand.Constrained by the fact that my country's capital and financial accounts have not achieved full convertibility, the applicability of the interest rate parity theory has weakened, while the current account balance and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanatory power for exchange rates. Against the backdrop of global trade recovery and divergence, China's foreign trade took the lead in recovering. Considering the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, Japan and other places, it may have a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Meanwhile, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to be high in 2021, boosting the trade surplus and providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB. From the perspective of the United States, the U.S. trade deficit has been gradually increasing since December 2020, reaching $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.The Federal Reserve is currently fluctuating left and right, but overall it remains dovish.By breaking down the nominal US Treasury yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we found that overall, the decline in real interest rates was greater, reflecting expectations of a weakening US economic recovery. The Federal Reserve remains dovish in its stance, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the necessity of maintaining low interest rates, and expects a low likelihood of policy tightening in the short term. Lower real interest rates, coupled with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, may lead to insufficient action on US Treasury yields. US Treasury yields are expected to influence the RMB exchange rate through the interest rate differential between China and the US. The current interest rate differential between China and the US is around 150 basis points, which is still above the safe boundary of 100 basis points. If the interest rate differential between China and the US continues to widen, it will further increase the allocation value of RMB assets, thereby driving up RMB demand and boosting RMB appreciation.Summary:The People's Bank of China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2021 stated: \"Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of 'risk neutrality,' and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.\" With the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB, and the continued opening of the financial market, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will intensify, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. Considering factors such as my country's strong exports, the decline in US real interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance, we believe that the RMB exchange rate still has strengthening momentum, and the USD/CNY exchange rate may fall to 6.2.textSince June 2020, the RMB has experienced a period of strength, with the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB falling from a high of 7.16 to a recent low of 6.42. Although the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, it subsequently returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the USD/RMB spot exchange rate was 6.44. We believe there is still room for the RMB to appreciate in the future, and the USD/RMB exchange rate may fall to 6.2.<h3>The RMB fluctuated more in both directions due to bullish and bearish factors, but strengthened overall.</h3>Since April this year, the RMB has resumed its strengthening trend, and the correlation between the USD/RMB spot exchange rate and the US Dollar Index has increased.This round of RMB appreciation began at the end of May 2020. The spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB continued to decline from its high of 7.16 on May 28, 2020, and reached its lowest point of 6.42 in nearly a year on May 10, 2021, with a maximum drop of 10.34%. In the near term, the RMB exchange rate depreciated in February and March 2021, with the USD/RMB spot exchange rate rising from 6.45 on February 24 to 6.57 on March 30. Subsequently, the RMB returned to an appreciation channel. As of May 20, 2021, the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB was 6.44, a decrease of approximately 1.98% from the high point in 2021. From the perspective of the US Dollar Index, its correlation with the US dollar to RMB spot exchange rate has historically fluctuated to some extent. For example, in January and February 2021, the US Dollar Index rose, while the RMB exchange rate remained relatively stable due to the support of foreign exchange settlement and sales. Since March 2021, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate has once again maintained a similar trend to that in the US Dollar Index, and the correlation between the two has increased.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60537f63bd0a3e72233a06121aa63e6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">the US Dollar Index initially rose and then fell this year.In Q2-Q4 2020, the widening interest rate differential between China and the United States increased the allocation value of Chinese assets, leading to the depreciation of the US dollar.The 10-year Treasury Bond spread between the two countries has a guiding effect on capital flows, thereby causing changes in money demand. Taking China and the United States as examples, after the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in the United States in March 2020, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury Bond fell rapidly to around 0.7%, while China's 10-year Treasury Bond remained around 2.6%. During Q2-Q4 2020, the interest rate differential between China and the United States widened significantly, exceeding 200 basis points in mid-May. Coupled with the influence of risk aversion, the value of Chinese asset allocation increased, and the increased demand for RMB led to the depreciation of the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ce66b49333c75187ee8aac41d770ca\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In Q1 2021, the continued improvement in the fundamentals of the US economy, coupled with the continued rise in US Treasury yields, led to the appreciation of the US dollar.In terms of macroeconomics, the US manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI repeatedly hit new highs in the first quarter of 2021, with the manufacturing PMI recording 64.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI recording 63.7 in March. Meanwhile, the yield on US Treasury bonds rose from 0.93% on January 4, 2021 to 1.74% on March 31, 2021, an increase of 81 basis points. The combined effect of strong economic fundamentals and the continued rise in US Treasury yields pushed the the US Dollar Index up from 89.88 on January 4 to 93.18 on March 31.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1531717ff143b371d542aa611c403005\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In April 2021, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend.Regarding the decline in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index in April, we believe one of the important considerations was the market's attitude towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. With the Fed's continued signals of maintaining easing, market concerns about the Fed's early tightening of monetary policy have decreased. Specifically, the decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield in April was mainly due to a drop in real yields, while changes in inflation expectations were relatively limited during this period. Looking at the weights of the basket of currencies that make up the the US Dollar Index, the recovery of the European economy also influenced the trend of the US Dollar Index after April. In the US Dollar Index' calculations, the euro has a weighting of 57.6% and the pound has a weighting of 11.9%, totaling 69.5%. Therefore, the economic fundamentals of the European region have a certain indirect impact on the performance of the US Dollar Index. With the economic recovery of major European countries, currencies such as the euro and pound sterling have strengthened, leading to a weakening of the US Dollar Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a9349bce137b7ee13960f792d6d5092\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since May 2021, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have fluctuated, leading to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.Entering May, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index fluctuated due to employment and inflation data. On the one hand, the released April non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the the US Dollar Index fell rapidly to around 90.40 in the short term. After rising, it continued to fluctuate downwards, closing down at 90.24 that day. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell nearly 10 basis points to around 1.48%. The inflation data released later far exceeded market expectations, with the unadjusted core CPI rising 3% year-on-year in April, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise sharply by 7.3 basis points after the data was released, breaking through a high of 1.69%, and the the US Dollar Index high approaching 91. With soaring prices but a weak job market, the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma, with increased volatility in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, leading to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20eed0fcbd91e3e34b939cca19924989\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db904f3feccd8bbf9abd11d5a3f213b1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">RMB demand remains unchangedWith the continued economic recovery, my country's high prosperity in exports is an important reason for the current round of RMB strengthening.Foreign trade is an important angle for observing exchange rate trends. Theoretically, when a country has a foreign trade surplus (exports > imports), the demand for that country's local currency will increase, which in turn will trigger the appreciation of the local currency. Since the second quarter of 2020, my country's domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and industrial production has gradually recovered. At the same time, the overseas epidemic has broken out. Against the backdrop of a global supply and demand mismatch, my country's exports have rebounded first, and the trade balance has turned from reversal to smooth, maintaining a trade surplus for 14 consecutive months. Among them, the trade surplus reached its peak since the pandemic in November and December 2020, corresponding to the low point of the spot exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB during the same period. Entering 2021, the trade surplus narrowed in the first quarter due to the recovery of overseas supply, and the appreciation trend of the RMB declined slightly. However, my country's imports and exports in April both far exceeded expectations, and the increase in the trade surplus once again boosted the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0e11048ba82ff6c46e4253a5431a91\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8504e7fbfb09da1366dbb31c42b65\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In April 2021, foreign capital continued to increase its holdings in my country's Treasury Bond, providing support for the RMB exchange rate.In March 2021, foreign capital slightly reduced its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond, which also affected the depreciation of the RMB to some extent at that time. In April, foreign capital increased its holdings of my country's Treasury Bond again, and the total amount of bonds under custody in April was RMB 3,221.945 billion, an increase of RMB 64.86 billion compared with March. Regarding the main reasons for the rapid growth of foreign debt holdings, we believe there are the following points: (1) The decline in US Treasury yields during the same period has led to a widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US; (2) During the same period, the pandemic spread in emerging markets, and RMB assets attracted safe-haven funds.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48766b5bf800584ae7573bef5010b733\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In conclusion, this round of RMB appreciation can be explained from two dimensions: the US Dollar Index and RMB demand.First, the rapid recovery of the US economic fundamentals in Q1 2021, coupled with the continued rise in US Treasury yields, drove the appreciation of the US dollar; Subsequently, in April, affected by factors such as declining real interest rates, slowing momentum in the US economic recovery, and economic recovery in Europe, US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index showed a downward trend. Since May, employment and inflation readings have triggered slight fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, which in turn led to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Second, the high prosperity of China's foreign trade has supported the current strengthening of the RMB. The better-than-expected import and export data in April 2021 and the renewed increase in foreign investment in my country's Treasury Bond have further promoted the appreciation of the RMB.<h3>Strong exports continue to support RMB demand</h3>Constrained by the fact that my country's capital and financial accounts have not achieved full convertibility, the applicability of the interest rate parity theory has weakened, while the current account balance and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanatory power for exchange rates.The core idea of interest rate parity theory is that the forward exchange rate differential of one currency is equal to the interest rate differential between the two countries. Although this theory can explain fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate to some extent, its inherent assumptions include no transaction costs and full capital flow.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">Chinese capital</a>In an environment where financial accounts are not fully open, the effectiveness of the explanation has been weakened. In comparison, current account revenue and expenditure and foreign trade balance have a stronger explanation for exchange rates, especially since China's imports and exports are booming in the short term. Analysis from this perspective is more practical.Against the backdrop of global trade recovery and divergence, China's trade with the United States will continue to maintain high prosperity, providing support for the strengthening of the RMB.From a global perspective, China's exports have turned positive since June 2020, especially after October 2020, when they maintained a high growth rate of over 10%. In contrast, the export recovery of other major U.S. trading partners has been slower, with exports from the United Kingdom and Japan still showing negative growth as of February 2021 (-3.14% and -0.45%, respectively). Looking at Sino-US trade, since 2021, China's imports and exports to the US have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 10%. In April, the trade surplus increased by about 31.5% compared to the March data, affected by increased exports and decreased imports. Considering the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, Japan and other places, which has had a certain negative impact on global production capacity. Against this backdrop, China's production capacity continues to recover, and China's exports to the United States may continue to be high in 2021, boosting the trade surplus while providing impetus for the appreciation of the RMB.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfcf17db0d1c89c7deadc04210a55696\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40367f274a619c7a48b74bf3d9bd9abf\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The continued trade deficit in the United States is putting downward pressure on the US dollar.Since 2021, the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs have remained high, with the manufacturing PMI in February-April and the non-manufacturing PMI in March-April both above 60. On the consumer demand side, the U.S. consumer confidence index also showed strong growth, with the University of Michigan consumer confidence index recording 88.3 in April 2021. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy and the recovery of consumer demand, the U.S. trade deficit has been gradually increasing since December 2020, reaching $74.448 billion as of March 2021, an increase of 5.56% month-on-month. The persistent trade deficit has increased the demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3880584b1e496d4a8785e91b5987a1\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9483e3a12e032d55b227d57bf59c85\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Federal Reserve is currently fluctuating left and right, but overall remains dovish.Lower real interest rates, coupled with the Federal Reserve's overall dovish stance, may lead to insufficient action on US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index.By breaking down the nominal US Treasury yield into inflation expectations and real interest rates, we find that: on the one hand, since mid-March 2021, the US real interest rate has turned from rising to falling, from -0.56% on March 18 to -0.88% on May 18, a change of 32 percentage points, reflecting the current expectation of a weakening US economic recovery. However, on the other hand, monetary easing combined with fiscal stimulus has led to a rapid rise in the US domestic inflation rate. Looking at inflation expectations, which affect nominal interest rates, inflation expectations have continued to rise since mid-March 2021, from 2.27% on March 18 to 2.52% on May 18, a change of 25 basis points. However, the Federal Reserve remains dovish in its attitude, emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation and the necessity of maintaining low interest rates. It is expected that the possibility of policy tightening in the short term is low. The uneven economic recovery interacts with the Federal Reserve's policy stance, resulting in insufficient momentum in the 10-year US Treasury yield.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec0b88904ece48be0d90970212dfbff\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The impact of US Treasury yields is transmitted to the RMB exchange rate through the interest rate differential between China and the US.Under this logic, the decline in US Treasury yields has led to a widening interest rate differential between China and the US, which in turn reduces the allocation value of US dollar assets and increases the allocation value of RMB assets. From a historical average perspective, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has remained above 100 basis points over the past 11 years. From the perspective of investor behavior, we analyzed the interest rates between China and the United States, foreign capital purchases of Treasury Bond, and foreign capital purchases of Treasury Bond and policy bonds since data became available on the amount of bonds custodied by overseas institutions in 2014. The study found that a 100 basis point interest rate differential between China and the United States can basically keep foreign capital from flowing out of my country's bond market. The current interest rate differential between China and the US is around 150bps, which is still above the safe boundary of 100bps. If the interest rate differential between China and the US continues to widen in the future, it will further increase the allocation value of RMB assets, thereby driving up RMB demand and boosting RMB appreciation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d107df492386f6ddff04c00e2bd12e57\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><h3>conclusion</h3>The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.Last month, Zhou Chengjun, director of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Moganshan Conference that \"the RMB will continue to appreciate against the US dollar in the medium to long term. This is not only a result of China's sustained economic growth and the increasing relative purchasing power of the RMB, but also one of the consequences of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and continuous balance sheet expansion.\" Furthermore, the People's Bank of China's Q1 2021 Monetary Policy Implementation Report also mentioned: \"Give full play to the decisive role of market supply and demand in exchange rate formation, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, stabilize market expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of 'risk neutrality,' and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.\" With the enhancement of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of the RMB, and the continued opening of its financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented.In summary, we believe that the current strengthening momentum of the RMB exchange rate remains strong, and the USD/CNY exchange rate may fall to 6.2.From a foreign trade perspective, considering the recurrence of the pandemic in other parts of the world and the recovery of domestic demand in the United States, China's exports to the United States will remain strong in the short term, and the trade surplus may continue to rise, driving the RMB to continue to appreciate. On the other hand, the continued trade deficit in the United States also provides support for the RMB from the perspective of dollar depreciation. From the perspective of US Treasury bonds, the current slowdown in the US economic recovery has led to a decline in real interest rates. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, the possibility of the Fed tightening monetary policy in the short term is low. With the combined effect of these two factors, we believe that the RMB still has room for appreciation.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/466523\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e539f411dc656a968cee6aea7fb1503","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/466523","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2137746749","content_text":"核心观点2020年6月以来，人民币走出一波强势期，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从高点的7.16一直降至近期最低点6.42。虽然人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，但随后重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44。我们认为后续人民币仍有升值空间，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。多空因素下人民币双向波动加大，但整体走强。今年4月以来人民币重回走强态势，美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的相关性有所提高。人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，美元兑人民币即期汇率从2月24日的6.45涨至3月30日的6.57。随后人民币重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44，较2021年高点下跌约1.98%。经分析，我们认为主要原因包括：（1）4月美国受到实际利率下行、美国经济复苏动能放缓和以及欧洲地区经济修复等因素影响，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势；（2）5月以来就业疲弱和通胀飙升又引发美债收益率和美元指数出现波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动；（3）中国对外贸易的高景气度、经济修复和自身综合实力发展带动的国内资产吸引力提升均提高了人民币需求，推动人民币币值的提升。强出口继续支撑人民币需求。受制于我国资本和金融账户并未实现完全可兑换，利率平价理论的适用性有所弱化，而与之相比经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强。全球贸易修复分化背景下，中国对外贸易率先修复。考虑到当前印度、日本等地新冠疫情再度爆发，对全球产能或造成一定负面影响。同时中国产能继续恢复，2021年中国对美出口或继续保持高景气，拉高贸易顺差的同时，为人民币升值提供动力。从美国角度来看，美国的贸易逆差在2020年12月以来逐步增加，截至2021年3月达到744.48亿美元，环比增加5.56%。持续的贸易逆差提高了外币的需求，为美元带来贬值压力。当前美联储左右摇摆，但整体保持偏鸽。将名义美债收益率拆分成通胀预期和实际利率，我们发现，整体上看实际利率的下降幅度更大，体现了当前美国经济修复走弱预期。而美联储在态度上仍然偏鸽派，强调通胀的暂时性和维持低利率的必要性，预计短期内政策收紧的可能性较低。实际利率走低叠加美联储鸽派态度，或导致美债收益率上行动能不足。而美债收益率料将通过中美利差影响人民币汇率。当前中美利差为150bps附近，仍然高于100bps的安全边界，若后续中美利差继续走阔，将进一步提高人民币资产配置价值，从而推动人民币需求提升，拉动人民币升值总结：央行发布的2021年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告提到：‘发挥市场供求在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强人民币汇率弹性，加强宏观审慎管理，稳定市场预期，引导企业和金融机构坚持“风险中性”理念，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。’随着中国自身经济实力的增强，人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。结合我国强劲出口、美国实际利率走低以及美联储整体偏鸽态度等因素，我们认为人民币汇率仍具备走强动能，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。正文2020年6月以来，人民币走出一波强势期，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从高点的7.16一直降至近期最低点6.42。虽然人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，但随后重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44。我们认为后续人民币仍有升值空间，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。多空因素下人民币双向波动加大，但整体走强今年4月以来人民币重回走强态势，美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的相关性有所提高。本轮人民币升值走势从2020年5月底开始，美元兑人民币的即期汇率从2020年5月28日的高点（7.16）起持续走低，在2021年5月10日曾到达近一年内最低点6.42，最大跌幅达到10.34%。从近期来看，人民币汇率在2021年2月-3月出现贬值，美元兑人民币即期汇率从2月24日的6.45涨至3月30日的6.57。随后人民币重回升值通道，截至2021年5月20日，美元兑人民币即期汇率录得6.44，较2021年高点下跌约1.98%。从美元指数的角度来看，历史上其与美元兑人民币即期汇率的相关性存在一定波动。例如2021年1-2月，美元指数有所上涨，而人民币汇率因为结售汇的支撑表现相对平稳。从2021年3月以来，美元兑人民币即期汇率再次出现与美元指数保持类似走势，二者相关性有所提高。今年以来美元指数先升后降2020年Q2-Q4阶段，中美利差走阔提高了中国资产的配置价值，导致美元贬值。两国10年期国债利差对资金流向具有引导作用，进而引起货币需求变化。以中美两国为例，2020年3月新冠疫情在美国爆发后，美国10年期国债收益率快速下行至0.7%附近，而中国10年期国债则保持在2.6%附近。在2020年Q2-Q4期间，中美利差大幅走阔，于5月中旬突破200bps，叠加避险情绪影响，中国资产配置价值提高，人民币需求提高导致美元贬值。2021Q1，美国经济基本面持续转好叠加美债收益率持续上行，带动美元升值。宏观经济方面，美国2021年一季度的制造业PMI和非制造业PMI屡创新高，其中3月制造业PMI录得64.7，非制造业PMI录得63.7。同时，美债收益率从2021年1月4日的0.93%，涨至3月31日的1.74%，涨幅高达81bps。经济基本面的高景气和美债收益率的持续上行共同作用，推动美元指数从1月4日的89.88涨至3月31日的93.18。2021年4月，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势。对于4月美债收益率和美元指数的下行，我们认为其中一个重要的考量因素在于市场对于美联储货币政策的态度，在美联储持续对外释放的维持宽松信号下，市场对于美联储货币政策提前收紧的担忧有所下降。具体来看，4月10年期美债收益率的下行主要来自于实际收益率的下降，而在这期间通胀预期的变动相对有限。从构成美元指数的一揽子货币权重来看，欧洲经济的修复也影响了4月之后的美元指数走势。在美元指数的计算中，欧元权重为57.6%，英镑权重为11.9%，合计达69.5%，因而欧洲地区的经济基本面走势对美元指数的走势产生一定的间接影响。随着欧洲地区主要国家的经济复苏，欧元、英镑等货币走强，造成美元指数的走弱。2021年5月以来美债收益率和美元指数出现波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动。进入5月后，美债收益率和美元指数受到就业和通胀数据影响发生波动。一方面，公布的4月非农数据未及预期，美元指数短线快速下行至90.40附近，拉升后继续震荡下行，当日收跌于90.24；10年期美债收益率下降近10bps至1.48%附近。而后公布的通胀数据则大超市场预期，4月未季调核心CPI同比升3%，导致当日10年期美债收益率在数据发布后大幅上行7.3bps，高点冲破1.69%，美元指数高点上逼91。在物价水平飙升但就业市场疲弱的情况下，美联储左右为难，美债收益率和美元指数波动率加大，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动。人民币需求不减经济持续修复下，我国高景气度出口是推动本轮人民币走强的重要原因。对外贸易是观察汇率走势的一个重要角度，理论上一国对外贸易处于顺差时（出口>进口），对该国本币的需求将上升，进而引发本币升值。2020年2季度以来，我国国内疫情得到有效控制，工业生产也逐步恢复，同时海外疫情爆发，全球供需错配背景下我国出口率先反弹，贸易差额也由逆转顺，连续14个月保持贸易顺差状态。其中，2020年11月和12月当月贸易顺差达到疫情以来峰值，对应同期美元兑人民币即期汇率低点。进入2021年，一季度受海外供给恢复影响贸易顺差有所收窄，人民币升值趋势略有回落。但4月份我国进出口均远超预期，贸易顺差的提升再次推动人民币走强。2021年4月外资继续增持我国国债，对人民币汇率形成支撑。2021年3月外资出现小幅减持我国国债，也从一定程度上对当时人民币的贬值有所影响，4月外资重新增持我国国债，4月债券托管总量为32219.45亿元，较3月增加648.6亿元。关于外资持债规模快速增长的主要原因，我们认为有以下几点：（1）同期美债收益率下行，导致中美利差走阔；（2）同期新兴市场疫情扩散，人民币资产吸引避险资金。综上所述，本轮人民币升值行情可从美元指数和人民币需求两个维度进行解释。第一，2021Q1美国经济基本面的快速修复叠加美债收益率持续上行，带动美元升值；随后4月受到实际利率下行、美国经济复苏动能缓和以及欧洲地区经济修复等因素影响，美债收益率和美元指数呈现下跌趋势；5月以来就业和通胀读数又引发美债收益率和美元指数出现小幅波动，进而导致人民币汇率出现波动；第二，中国对外贸易的高景气度支撑本轮人民币走强，2021年4月进出口数据超预期以及外资重新增持我国国债进一步推动人民币币值提升。强出口继续支撑人民币需求受制于我国资本和金融账户并未实现完全可兑换，利率平价理论的适用性有所弱化，而与之相比经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强。利率平价理论的核心观点是一国货币的远期汇率差价等于两国利差，虽然该理论在一定程度能够解释人民币汇率变动，但其内在假设包括无交易成本、资本可完全流动等，在中国资本和金融账户未完全开放的环境下，解释力度有所削弱。相比较而言，从经常性项目收支和对外贸易差额对汇率的解释力度更强，尤其是短期内中国进出口处于高景气度，从这一角度分析更具实际意义。全球贸易修复分化背景下，中国对美贸易将继续保持高景气，为人民币走强提供支撑。全球视角来看，中国自2020年6月以来对外出口额转为正增长，尤其是在2020年10月后保持10%以上的高增速。相比之下，美国其他主要贸易伙伴的出口修复则较慢，英国和日本的出口额截至2021年2月仍然为负增长（-3.14%和-0.45%）。从中美贸易来看，2021年以来，中国对美进出口同比保持10%以上增速，4月当月贸易顺差受出口增加和进口减少影响，较3月数据增长约31.5%。考虑到当前印度、日本等地新冠疫情再度爆发，对全球产能造成一定负面影响。在此背景下，中国产能继续恢复，2021年中国对美出口或继续保持高景气，拉高贸易顺差的同时为人民币升值提供动力。美国持续的贸易逆差为美元带来贬值压力。2021年以来，美国制造业与非制造业PMI持续保持在高位，其中2月-4月的制造业PMI以及3月-4月的非制造业PMI均高于60。消费需求方面，美国消费者信心指数同样呈现高增局面，2021年4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数录得88.3。随着美国经济的逐渐修复以及消费端需求的复苏，美国的贸易逆差在2020年12月以来逐步增加，截至2021年3月其贸易逆差达到744.48亿美元，环比增加5.56%。持续的贸易逆差提高了外币的需求，为美元带来贬值压力。当前美联储左右摇摆，但整体保持偏鸽实际利率走低叠加美联储整体偏鸽，或导致美债收益率和美元指数上行动力不足。将名义美债收益率拆分成通胀预期和实际利率，我们发现：一方面，2021年3月中旬以来美国实际利率由升转降，从3月18日的-0.56%降至5月18日的-0.88%，变动幅度32pbs，体现了当前美国经济修复走弱预期。但另一方面货币宽松叠加财政刺激，导致美国国内通胀率快速上行。从影响名义利率的通胀预期来看，2021年3月中旬以来通胀预期持续上行，从3月18日的2.27%升至5月18日的2.52%，变动幅度25bps，而美联储在态度上仍然偏鸽派，强调通胀的暂时性和维持低利率的必要性，预计短期内政策收紧的可能性较低。经济复苏的不平衡与美联储政策取向相互作用，10年期美债收益率上行动力不足。美债收益率的影响通过中美利差传导至人民币汇率。在该逻辑下，美债收益率走低导致中美利差走阔，进而使得美元资产配置价值降低，人民币资产配置价值提升。从历史均值的角度看，11年以来中美利差的均值基本保持在100bps以上；从投资者行为的角度来看，我们对2014年中债境外机构债券托管量有数据以来中美利率与外资购买国债以及外资购买国债和政金债的情况进行了分析，研究发现100bps的中美利差基本可以维持外资不流出我国债市。当前中美利差为150bps附近，仍然高于100bps的安全边界，若后续中美利差继续走阔，将进一步提高人民币资产配置价值，从而推动人民币需求提升，拉动人民币升值。结论人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。上月中国央行金融研究所所长周诚君在莫干山会议上表示“人民币在中长期内将持续对美元升值，既是中国经济持续增长、人民币相对购买力不断提高的结果，也是美联储搞量化宽松和不断扩表的后果之一。”此外，央行发布的2021年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告也提到：‘发挥市场供求在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强人民币汇率弹性，加强宏观审慎管理，稳定市场预期，引导企业和金融机构坚持“风险中性”理念，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。’随着中国自身经济实力的增强、人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。综上分析，我们认为当前人民币汇率走强动能仍然较强，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。从对外贸易角度分析，考虑到全球其他地区疫情的反复，以及美国内需的修复，短期内中国对美出口将保持强劲，贸易顺差或继续走高，拉动人民币继续升值。另一方面，美国持续的贸易逆差也从美元贬值角度为人民币提供支撑。从美债角度分析，当前美国经济修复走缓导致实际利率下行，叠加美联储偏鸽派态度，短期内美联储收紧货币政策的可能性较低。两方因素共同作用下，我们认为人民币仍有升值空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"CYB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4438751,"commentId":"4438751","gmtCreate":1621906497716,"gmtModify":1680790774688,"authorId":3574500206068120,"author":{"id":3574500206068120,"idStr":"3574500206068120","authorId":3574500206068120,"name":"Kenwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e40d46e852addbb8143debd4343a58c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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