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Soonsoon
2021-07-03

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Non-farm payrolls are improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?

核心观点 6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站

Non-farm payrolls are improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?

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·2021-07-10
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":152529677,"tweetId":"152529677","gmtCreate":1625315405699,"gmtModify":1703740344446,"author":{"id":3586104114548426,"idStr":"3586104114548426","authorId":3586104114548426,"authorIdStr":"3586104114548426","name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152529677","repostId":2148167804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148167804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625284923,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148167804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Non-farm payrolls are improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148167804","media":"智通财经网","summary":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站","content":"CORE POINTU.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000 in June, higher than the expected 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force have led to a rebound in residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations. Recently, crude oil prices have stood above US $75/barrel. Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and U.S. inflation may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced. The time to officially start discussing Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the time to announce Taper and officially start the implementation of Taper may occur At the end of this year and early next year, the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before the formal discussion of Taper, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before the formal discussion of Taper is implemented, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-agricultural employment is higher than market expectations.From the perspective of changes in non-agricultural employment, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000. The number of new non-agricultural employment hit a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the rebound of residents' willingness to seek jobs due to the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations. Although the non-agricultural data in June was better than expected, the job market is still far from returning to normal because the number of unemployed people is still high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor force participation rate is low.The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, and the construction industry continues to drag down employment growth.In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and business services. The industries that decreased more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service industries such as the leisure and hospitality industries are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the increase in female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to the alleviation of labor supply problems. This view is also supported by many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester Look<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and U.S. inflation may remain high in stages.Since March this year, oil prices have begun to rise amid strong demand and market expectations that demand will continue to be strong. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and WTI crude oil prices stood above $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories have been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting strong demand for crude oil. Since May, crude oil inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting the current large gap between supply and demand, and oil prices may be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The current inflation in the United States continues to be at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation. With oil prices easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations are rising again, and inflation may remain high in stages.The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.As far as Taper during the year is concerned, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to normal levels, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced. At the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and early next year. As far as the subsequent rate hike is concerned, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the June interest rate meeting, the hawkish voices of Fed officials have also increased significantly, and the market's expectations for early rate hike have also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, then the possibility of the Fed's early rate hike before the end of 2022 cannot be ruled out.US Treasury yields's trend during the year: Before the formal discussion of Taper, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before the formal discussion of Taper is implemented, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.As the Fed's monetary policy shifts, we expect U.S. debt to remain fluctuating between 1.4% and 1.6% before Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"Taper tantrum\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that the US Treasury yields will not show a high slope upward. It is expected that after the Taper discussion begins and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.textAccording to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; The average hourly wage in June increased by 3.6% at an annual rate, which was expected to increase by 3.6% and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor force participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, non-agricultural payrolls are higher than market expectationsFrom the perspective of changes in non-agricultural employment, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and was expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000. The number of new non-agricultural employment hit a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-agricultural data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in April was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and the number of new non-agricultural jobs in May was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year, but the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits and other effects, which were lower than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly in June, higher than market expectations.We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the rebound of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations.First of all, due to the insufficient labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply, and there are many job vacancies. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they will stop the payment of unemployment benefits, resulting in the need for people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on start-up and social interaction caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start work. Thirdly, due to the shortage of supply in the labor market, enterprises generally raised their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, compared with the previous value of 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although the non-agricultural data in June was better than expected, the job market is still far from returning to normal.First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million less than before the epidemic in February 2020. Secondly, the unemployment rate in June increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People's willingness to apply for jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor force participation rate in June was only 61.6% equal to that in May, which is still at a historically low level. The short supply situation in the job market still exists in the short term. Therefore, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about virus infection and the need to care for children and the elderly still restrict labor supply. However, as time goes by, vaccination rates continue to increase, schools open, and more and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growthIn terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and business services. The industries that decreased more employment were construction and financial activities.Specifically, the number of people employed in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural additions in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; And the number of people employed in education and health care services remained unchanged at 59,000; The number of new jobs in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 month-on-month. Employment in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000 in June, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Financial services employment decreased by about 1,000 in June, the industry with the second largest decrease in non-farm payrolls in June.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the increase in female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to the alleviation of labor supply problems.From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, some areas continue to relax travel restrictions, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which will continue to boost employment in the leisure and hotel industries. In addition, some areas continue to resume offline teaching, coupled with the increase in outpatient and health care services, resulting in a recovery in employment in education and health care services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with employment in local government education decreasing by 414,000 since February 2020, state education decreasing by 168,000, private education decreasing by 255,000, showing greater room for education employment to recover in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor force caring for children at home will increase, becoming an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Federal Reserve officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.Oil prices soar, inflation expectations resurfaceSince March this year, oil prices have begun to rise amid strong demand and market expectations that demand will continue to be strong. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and WTI crude oil prices stood above $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.Since March, as the economy continues to recover, the demand for crude oil has been strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and crude oil prices have soared. The prices of WTI crude oil and Brent oil have both increased from around US $60/barrel in late March. Above US $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month by December 2021. Lower than market expectations and later put on hold due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, WTI and Brent oil prices both stood above US $75/barrel, with WTI oil prices reaching a new high since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the beginning of this year, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories have been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting strong demand for crude oil. Since May, crude oil inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting the current large gap between supply and demand, and oil prices may be easy to rise but difficult to fall.On June 30, the latest EIA data showed that as of June 25, crude oil inventories decreased by 6.718 million barrels that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels. It was the sixth consecutive week of decline. The continuous decline in crude oil inventories reflected the current gap between crude oil supply and demand. Large. Judging from the situation of this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still certain differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help ease the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, there will be great variables in the future Iranian nuclear negotiations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. inflation continues to be high, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in May in the United States once again exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the U.S. unseasonally adjusted CPI recorded 5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp rise in inflation year-on-year readings in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect on the CPI in May were transportation and energy items. In May, the U.S. CPI transportation sub-items grew at a year-on-year growth rate of 20%, and the energy sub-items The year-on-year growth rate was as high as 28.5%, mainly reflecting the increase in people's travel demand under the recovery of the epidemic. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. The core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With oil prices easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations are rising again, and inflation may remain high in stages.Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the decline in market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18 and 21, with the continuous rise in oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI details; Secondly, the year-on-year energy item in the CPI sub-item is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and inflation driven by oil prices, U.S. inflation may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items remain high, and used car prices remain high in the short term, which will also support inflation levels.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Will the Fed tighten early?As far as Taper during the year is concerned, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to normal period levels, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to advance.Although inflation is currently at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, for Taper during the year, inflation is not the focus of the Fed's attention. The current focus of the Federal Reserve is still on the job market. The current recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to normal levels. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find jobs gradually increased. At the same time, coupled with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care has decreased. It is expected that the job market may accelerate recovery in July and August, which may trigger the Federal Reserve's response to Taper's discussion. Therefore, the non-farm payrolls report in June allows us to maintain our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced. The time to officially start discussing Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, and the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper The timing may occur at the end of this year and early next year.As far as the rate hike is concerned, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not ruled out that the Fed will rate hike ahead of schedule before the end of 2022.On the one hand, the June Federal Reserve dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Seven officials are expected to rate hike in 2022, and 13 members are expected to rate hike in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, it is expected that the number of officials in rate hike will increase by 3 in 2022 and the number of officials in rate hike will increase by 6 in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether it is a rate hike, it still reflects the change of Fed officials' attitude towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voices of Fed officials also increased significantly. The most representative one is that St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who is known for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even he himself All seven policymakers expect the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which is a natural response to a faster-than-expected rise in inflation. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller, and Richmond Fed President Barkin have all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the Fed's latest forecast of inflation and the marginal changes in Powell's statement of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, the possibility that the Fed will take early action to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022) cannot be ruled out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What is the trend of U.S. bonds during the year?As the Fed's monetary policy shifts, we expect U.S. debt to remain fluctuating between 1.4% and 1.6% before Taper discussions officially begin.According to our previous report \"Bond Market Enlightenment Series 20210622-Why did US Treasury yields dive?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend in US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Fed's June interest rate meeting, there was excess liquidity and The downward trend driven by the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan, and after the interest rate meeting, there was a downward trend in interest rates caused by excessive liquidity and downward inflation expectations. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate between 1.4% and 1.6%.According to the experience of the last round of Taper, after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, it is expected that US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony to Congress. During the question-and-question session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, we will reduce the purchase scale in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and the so-called \"taper tantrum\" emerged. After the sudden Taper signal appeared, U.S. bond yields soared rapidly and sharply. Starting from May 1, 2013, the 10-year U.S. bond yield began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the September interest rate meeting, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month. It rose to a high of 2.98%, with an upward rise of over 130bps.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"Taper tantrum\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that the US Treasury yields will not show a high slope upward.Powell said at a press conference after the June interest rate meeting that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and would inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Ladas Fed President Kaplan also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating a \"taper panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Federal Reserve officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will rise, but it will not reach as high as 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm payrolls are improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm payrolls are improving, oil prices are soaring, will the Fed tighten ahead of schedule?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n智通财经网2021-07-03 12:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCORE POINTU.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000 in June, higher than the expected 720,000. The suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force have led to a rebound in residents' willingness to seek jobs are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations. Recently, crude oil prices have stood above US $75/barrel. Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and U.S. inflation may remain high in stages. In terms of the pace of the Fed's tightening, it is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced. The time to officially start discussing Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, while the time to announce Taper and officially start the implementation of Taper may occur At the end of this year and early next year, the rate hike process may be advanced to the end of 2022. In terms of the trend of US Treasury yields during the year, before the formal discussion of Taper, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before the formal discussion of Taper is implemented, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, and the number of non-agricultural employment is higher than market expectations.From the perspective of changes in non-agricultural employment, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000. The number of new non-agricultural employment hit a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the rebound of residents' willingness to seek jobs due to the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations. Although the non-agricultural data in June was better than expected, the job market is still far from returning to normal because the number of unemployed people is still high, the unemployment rate is rising, and the labor force participation rate is low.The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, and the construction industry continues to drag down employment growth.In terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and business services. The industries that decreased more employment were construction and financial activities. In the medium term, service industries such as the leisure and hospitality industries are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the increase in female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to the alleviation of labor supply problems. This view is also supported by many Fed officials such as Kashkari, Mester Look<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>One of the reasons for employment.Oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and U.S. inflation may remain high in stages.Since March this year, oil prices have begun to rise amid strong demand and market expectations that demand will continue to be strong. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and WTI crude oil prices stood above $75/barrel for the first time since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories have been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting strong demand for crude oil. Since May, crude oil inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting the current large gap between supply and demand, and oil prices may be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The current inflation in the United States continues to be at a high level, mainly driven by energy and transportation. With oil prices easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations are rising again, and inflation may remain high in stages.The Fed's tightening pace: It is expected that the Taper process may not be advanced, and the rate hike process may be advanced.As far as Taper during the year is concerned, the job market is still the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to normal levels, it is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced. At the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper may occur at the end of this year and early next year. As far as the subsequent rate hike is concerned, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. After the June interest rate meeting, the hawkish voices of Fed officials have also increased significantly, and the market's expectations for early rate hike have also increased. If inflation remains high for a long time, then the possibility of the Fed's early rate hike before the end of 2022 cannot be ruled out.US Treasury yields's trend during the year: Before the formal discussion of Taper, it may fluctuate at 1.4%-1.6%, and before the formal discussion of Taper is implemented, it may rise slightly to 1.8%-2.0%.As the Fed's monetary policy shifts, we expect U.S. debt to remain fluctuating between 1.4% and 1.6% before Taper discussions officially begin. As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"Taper tantrum\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that the US Treasury yields will not show a high slope upward. It is expected that after the Taper discussion begins and before the official implementation of Taper, US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.textAccording to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and it is expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000; The unemployment rate in June was 5.9%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.8%; The average hourly wage in June increased by 3.6% at an annual rate, which was expected to increase by 3.6% and the previous value increased by 2%; The labor force participation rate in June was 61.6%, compared with the previous value of 61.6%.Residents' willingness to seek jobs has picked up, non-agricultural payrolls are higher than market expectationsFrom the perspective of changes in non-agricultural employment, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 850,000 after seasonally adjustment in June, and was expected to increase by 720,000. The previous value was revised up from an increase of 559,000 to an increase of 583,000. The number of new non-agricultural employment hit a new high since August 2020, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June was higher than the previous value. At the same time, the non-agricultural data in April and May this year underwent downward and upward revisions respectively. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in April was revised downward from 278,000 to 269,000, and the number of new non-agricultural jobs in May was revised upward from 559,000 to 583,000. Judging from the trend of new non-agricultural jobs, with the acceleration of vaccination in the United States, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased month by month from January to March this year, but the number of new non-agricultural jobs in April and May was affected by the payment of unemployment benefits and other effects, which were lower than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs grew strongly in June, higher than market expectations.We believe that the suspension of unemployment benefits, the increasing vaccination rate, and the increase of wages by enterprises to attract labor force, which leads to the rebound of residents' willingness to seek jobs, are the main reasons why the number of new non-agricultural jobs is higher than market expectations.First of all, due to the insufficient labor supply caused by the previous payment of unemployment benefits, the job market is in short supply, and there are many job vacancies. Since June, most states in the United States have announced that they will stop the payment of unemployment benefits, resulting in the need for people who don't work because they receive unemployment benefits to find jobs again. Secondly, the increasing vaccination rate has gradually lifted the restrictions on start-up and social interaction caused by the epidemic, increasing people's willingness to start work. Thirdly, due to the shortage of supply in the labor market, enterprises generally raised their wages. In June, the average hourly wage increased by 3.6% annually, compared with the previous value of 2%, which further attracted people to return to the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5ee9b5b49f6e1d86d65620516c8f43\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although the non-agricultural data in June was better than expected, the job market is still far from returning to normal.First of all, in terms of employment, the current employment level is still nearly 6.8 million less than before the epidemic in February 2020. Secondly, the unemployment rate in June increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. We think this may be temporary frictional unemployment. People's willingness to apply for jobs has increased, and the number of people looking for jobs has begun to increase. However, it will still take some time to find a job that matches their skills, so the unemployment rate rose in June. Thirdly, the labor force participation rate in June was only 61.6% equal to that in May, which is still at a historically low level. The short supply situation in the job market still exists in the short term. Therefore, the current job market is far from recovering to normal levels, and worries about virus infection and the need to care for children and the elderly still restrict labor supply. However, as time goes by, vaccination rates continue to increase, schools open, and more and more states stop paying unemployment benefits, the labor market may be further repaired.The leisure hotel industry continues to pick up, while the construction industry continues to drag down growthIn terms of industries, the industries that contributed more to the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in June came from leisure and hospitality industries, education and health services, government departments, and professional and business services. The industries that decreased more employment were construction and financial activities.Specifically, the number of people employed in the leisure and hotel industries in June was 343,000, an increase of 37,000 compared with May, and it was still the industry with the largest number of new non-agricultural additions in June. In June, the number of new jobs in government departments was 188,000, an increase of about 121,000 from the previous month; And the number of people employed in education and health care services remained unchanged at 59,000; The number of new jobs in professional and business services increased by about 36,000 month-on-month. Employment in the construction industry decreased by about 7,000 in June, which was the industry with the largest decrease in non-farm employment in June; Financial services employment decreased by about 1,000 in June, the industry with the second largest decrease in non-farm payrolls in June.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2192c03fef990282f9358dd04a47b7de\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the medium term, service industries such as leisure and hospitality are expected to continue to boost employment. At the same time, the potential for new employment in the education sector and the increase in female labor force after the resumption of schools are worth looking forward to the alleviation of labor supply problems.From the perspective of industry data, as more people complete vaccination, some areas continue to relax travel restrictions, and more people resume travel and dining out activities, which will continue to boost employment in the leisure and hotel industries. In addition, some areas continue to resume offline teaching, coupled with the increase in outpatient and health care services, resulting in a recovery in employment in education and health care services. Despite this, education employment remains low, with employment in local government education decreasing by 414,000 since February 2020, state education decreasing by 168,000, private education decreasing by 255,000, showing greater room for education employment to recover in the next normalization of economic life. Not only that, with the resumption of employment and offline courses in the education sector, a large number of female-dominated labor force caring for children at home will increase, becoming an important potential for new non-farm employment in the medium term. This view is also one of the reasons why many Federal Reserve officials such as Kashkari and Mester are optimistic about future employment.Oil prices soar, inflation expectations resurfaceSince March this year, oil prices have begun to rise amid strong demand and market expectations that demand will continue to be strong. On Thursday, OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, and WTI crude oil prices stood above $75/barrel for the first time since 2018.Since March, as the economy continues to recover, the demand for crude oil has been strong. Although OPEC + continues to increase production, the gap between crude oil supply and demand still exists, and crude oil prices have soared. The prices of WTI crude oil and Brent oil have both increased from around US $60/barrel in late March. Above US $70/barrel. On Thursday, OPEC + earlier reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by an average of 400,000 barrels per day per month by December 2021. Lower than market expectations and later put on hold due to opposition from the United Arab Emirates, WTI and Brent oil prices both stood above US $75/barrel, with WTI oil prices reaching a new high since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b30a53af2bc5eea0c62bb593be66e21\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Since the beginning of this year, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories have been in a downward trend as a whole, reflecting strong demand for crude oil. Since May, crude oil inventories have declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting the current large gap between supply and demand, and oil prices may be easy to rise but difficult to fall.On June 30, the latest EIA data showed that as of June 25, crude oil inventories decreased by 6.718 million barrels that week, which was higher than the expected 3.85 million barrels. It was the sixth consecutive week of decline. The continuous decline in crude oil inventories reflected the current gap between crude oil supply and demand. Large. Judging from the situation of this week's OPEC + meeting, there are still certain differences within OPEC + on whether to increase production. At the same time, even if OPEC + reaches an agreement on increasing production, the monthly increase in crude oil production may not be able to fill the current large supply and demand gap. Therefore, in the short term, crude oil prices may remain high. At present, the biggest variable may be the Iranian nuclear negotiations. If the Iranian nuclear negotiations go smoothly in the short term, Iran's resumption of crude oil supply and export will help ease the upward trend of oil prices; If the negotiations do not go smoothly in the short term, then under the leadership of the new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, there will be great variables in the future Iranian nuclear negotiations.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cbc2b7e257699802d4b48d9cd590e84\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">U.S. inflation continues to be high, mainly driven by energy and transportation items.After the inflation data in April far exceeded market expectations, the inflation data in May in the United States once again exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by transportation and energy sub-items. In May, the U.S. unseasonally adjusted CPI recorded 5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 pct from the previous value of 4.2%, and the unseasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 pct from the previous value of 3%. On the one hand, the low base effect caused by the epidemic last year was an important reason for the sharp rise in inflation year-on-year readings in May. On the other hand, from the perspective of CPI sub-items, the sub-items that brought the strongest pulling effect on the CPI in May were transportation and energy items. In May, the U.S. CPI transportation sub-items grew at a year-on-year growth rate of 20%, and the energy sub-items The year-on-year growth rate was as high as 28.5%, mainly reflecting the increase in people's travel demand under the recovery of the epidemic. At the same time, the PCE indicator that the Fed is more concerned about also hit a record high. In May, PCE increased by 3.9% year-on-year, much higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. The core PCE increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a new high since 1992.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1640d6ef53ec849acdcb544e300d69d\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With oil prices easy to rise but difficult to fall, inflation expectations are rising again, and inflation may remain high in stages.Under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June, the decline in market inflation expectations drove the US Treasury yields to fall instead of rising. After reaching a phased low on June 18 and 21, with the continuous rise in oil prices recently, inflation expectations rose again. From the perspective of the relationship between oil price and inflation, first of all, oil price is basically positively correlated with the trend of energy commodities in the US CPI details; Secondly, the year-on-year energy item in the CPI sub-item is highly consistent with the overall year-on-year trend of CPI. Therefore, under the combined effect of rising inflation expectations and inflation driven by oil prices, U.S. inflation may remain high in stages. At the same time, transportation items and housing items remain high, and used car prices remain high in the short term, which will also support inflation levels.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26e43f72a970000a31ddb74be3f6c71\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c6a7713d73bb41a2d97a3b0c2b6111\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Will the Fed tighten early?As far as Taper during the year is concerned, the job market remains the focus of the Fed's attention. With the job market recovering steadily but far from returning to normal period levels, the Fed's Taper process is not expected to advance.Although inflation is currently at a high level and will remain high for a certain period of time in the future, for Taper during the year, inflation is not the focus of the Fed's attention. The current focus of the Federal Reserve is still on the job market. The current recovery process of the job market is relatively stable, but it is far from returning to normal levels. After most states stopped paying unemployment benefits in June, residents' willingness to find jobs gradually increased. At the same time, coupled with the resumption of schools in September, the demand for child care has decreased. It is expected that the job market may accelerate recovery in July and August, which may trigger the Federal Reserve's response to Taper's discussion. Therefore, the non-farm payrolls report in June allows us to maintain our previous judgment. It is expected that the Fed's Taper process will not be advanced. The time to officially start discussing Taper may be at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August, and the announcement of Taper and the official implementation of Taper The timing may occur at the end of this year and early next year.As far as the rate hike is concerned, inflation will become the focus of the Fed's attention. If inflation remains high for a long time, it is not ruled out that the Fed will rate hike ahead of schedule before the end of 2022.On the one hand, the June Federal Reserve dot plot shows that all policymakers expect the Federal Funds rate to remain close to zero by the end of 2021. Seven officials are expected to rate hike in 2022, and 13 members are expected to rate hike in 2023. Compared with the March dot plot, it is expected that the number of officials in rate hike will increase by 3 in 2022 and the number of officials in rate hike will increase by 6 in 2023. Although the dot plot is not directly related to whether it is a rate hike, it still reflects the change of Fed officials' attitude towards rate hike. On the other hand, after the interest rate meeting, the hawkish voices of Fed officials also increased significantly. The most representative one is that St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who is known for his doves, suddenly turned hawkish. He said that even he himself All seven policymakers expect the Fed to take radical measures to curb inflation, which is a natural response to a faster-than-expected rise in inflation. In addition, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Waller, and Richmond Fed President Barkin have all made hawkish remarks recently. According to the Fed's latest forecast of inflation and the marginal changes in Powell's statement of inflation, if inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise, the possibility that the Fed will take early action to curb inflation (that is, rate hike before the end of 2022) cannot be ruled out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5eab496e311ef8ad1d5bd9dd3ecd0d\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What is the trend of U.S. bonds during the year?As the Fed's monetary policy shifts, we expect U.S. debt to remain fluctuating between 1.4% and 1.6% before Taper discussions officially begin.According to our previous report \"Bond Market Enlightenment Series 20210622-Why did US Treasury yields dive?\" (2021-06-22), the recent downward trend in US Treasury yields is divided into two stages. Before the Fed's June interest rate meeting, there was excess liquidity and The downward trend driven by the blockage of Biden's infrastructure plan, and after the interest rate meeting, there was a downward trend in interest rates caused by excessive liquidity and downward inflation expectations. In the short term, US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate between 1.4% and 1.6%.According to the experience of the last round of Taper, after the start of this round of Taper discussions and before the official implementation of Taper, it is expected that US Treasury yields will rise slightly, or reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.On May 22, 2013, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave testimony to Congress. During the question-and-question session, Bernanke said that if the job market continues to improve and we are confident that the improvement momentum will continue, we will reduce the purchase scale in the next few meetings. Under the combined impact of Bernanke's speech and the minutes of the interest rate meeting, the market reacted violently, and the so-called \"taper tantrum\" emerged. After the sudden Taper signal appeared, U.S. bond yields soared rapidly and sharply. Starting from May 1, 2013, the 10-year U.S. bond yield began to soar rapidly. By the eve of the September interest rate meeting, it had risen from 1.66% at the beginning of the month. It rose to a high of 2.98%, with an upward rise of over 130bps.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090410b460b0e32215fa0c1e2e5a87b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As far as this round of Taper is concerned, the Federal Reserve has learned the lesson of the last round of \"Taper tantrum\" and communicated with the market in advance. At the same time, the market also has full expectations for Taper, so there is a high probability that the US Treasury yields will not show a high slope upward.Powell said at a press conference after the June interest rate meeting that he would do everything he could to avoid overreaction in the market and would inform the market in advance before making any decisions. At the same time, Ladas Fed President Kaplan also said recently that the Fed will gradually reduce asset purchases, but this time it will be smoother because investors already know that the measure is being negotiated, and the Fed will avoid creating a \"taper panic\" in 2013 this time. Therefore, we believe that after the Federal Reserve officially releases the Taper discussion signal, the US Treasury yields will rise, but it will not reach as high as 130bps in 2013, or it will reach the level of 1.8%-2.0%.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html\">智通财经网</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/506781.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2148167804","content_text":"核心观点\n6月美国非农就业人口增加85万人，高于预期的72万人。失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。近期，原油价格站上75美元/桶，油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。在美联储收紧的节奏上，预计Taper进程或不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初，加息进程或将提前至2022年底。美债利率年内走势上，Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农就业人数高于市场预期。从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但由于失业人数仍然较多、失业率上升以及劳动参与率处于低位，就业市场距离恢复到正常还有较远距离。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累就业增长。分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价短期内易上难下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。美国当前通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。\n美联储收紧节奏：预计Taper进程或不会提前，加息进程或将提前。就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，在6月议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，市场对于提前加息的预期也有所增加，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息的可能。\n美债利率年内走势：Taper正式讨论前，或将在1.4%-1.6%震荡，Taper正式讨论到实施前，或将小幅上行至1.8%-2.0%。随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。预计在Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。\n正文\n美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增85万人，预期增72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人;6月失业率为5.9%，预期为5.7%，前值为5.8%;6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，预期增3.6%，前值增2%;6月劳动参与率为61.6%，前值为61.6%。\n居民求职意愿回升，非农高于市场预期\n从非农就业人数变化来看，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加85万人，预期增加72万人，前值由增55.9万人上修为增58.3万人，非农新增就业人数创2020年8月以来新高，但失业率升至5.9%。6月美国非农新增就业人数高于前值，同时今年4月和5月的非农数据分别经历了下修和上修，4月非农新增就业人数从27.8万人下修至26.9万人，5月非农新增就业人数从55.9万人上修至58.3万人。从非农新增就业人数走势来看，随着美国疫苗接种速度的加快，今年1月-3月，非农新增就业人数逐月增加，但是4月和5月非农新增就业人数受到失业救济金发放等影响，均低于市场预期，6月非农新增就业人数增长强劲，高于市场预期。\n我们认为失业救济金停发、疫苗接种率不断增加、企业增加工资吸引劳动力导致居民求职意愿回升是非农新增就业人数高于市场预期的主要原因。首先，由于此前失业救济金的发放导致劳动力供给不足，就业市场供不应求，职位空缺数较多。6月以来，美国大部分州宣布停止失业救济金的发放，导致因领取失业救济金而不工作的民众需要重新找到工作。其次，疫苗接种率不断增加使得因疫情造成的开工和社交限制逐渐被解除，增加民众开始工作的意愿。再次，由于劳动力市场供不应求，企业普遍提升工资水平，6月平均时薪年率增3.6%，前值增2%，这也进一步吸引人们重回劳动力市场。\n\n尽管6月非农数据好于预期，但就业市场距离恢复正常还有较远距离。首先，从就业人数上看，当前较2020年2月疫情以前的就业人数水平仍少近680万人。其次，6月失业率较此前有所上升，从5.6%上升至5.9%，我们认为这可能是暂时的摩擦性失业，民众求职意愿提升，寻找工作的人开始增加，但是找到自己满意同时技能匹配的工作仍需一段时间，因此失业率在6月有所上升。再次，6月的劳动参与率与5月相等仅为61.6%，仍然处于历史低位，就业市场供不应求的状况短期仍然存在。因此，当前就业市场还远未复苏到正常水平，对于感染病毒的担忧、照顾子女和老人的需求仍然制约着劳动力供给。不过，随着时间推移，疫苗接种率继续提升、学校开学、越来越多的州停发失业救济金，劳动力市场或将会得到进一步修复。\n休闲酒店业延续回暖，建筑业延续拖累增长\n分行业来看，6月对美国非农新增就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、教育和保健服务、政府部门以及专业和商业服务，就业人数减少较多的行业为建筑业和金融活动。具体来看，6月休闲和酒店业就业人数为34.3万人，相较5月环比增加3.7万人，仍然为6月非农新增人数第一的行业。6月政府部门新增就业人数为18.8万人，环比增加约12.1万人;教育和保健服务就业人数环比不变，保持为5.9万人;专业和商业服务新增就业人数环比增加约3.6万人。6月建筑业就业人数减少约0.7万人，为6月非农就业人数减少最多的行业;6月金融服务就业人数减少约0.1万人，为6月非农就业人数减少第二多的行业。\n\n中期来看休闲和酒店业等服务业预计将持续提振就业，同时教育部门就业新增潜力，以及学校复课后，女性劳动力增加对劳动力供应问题的缓解值得期待。从行业数据上来看，随着更多人完成疫苗接种，部分地区继续放宽出行限制，更多人恢复旅游和外出就餐活动，对休闲和酒店业的就业产生持续的提振。此外，一些地区继续恢复线下教学，叠加门诊与保健服务的增加，导致教育和保健服务业就业人数均有所恢复。尽管如此，教育就业仍然处于低位，自2020年2月以来，地方政府教育部门的就业人数减少了41.4万人，州政府教育部门的就业人数减少了16.8万人，私立教育部门的就业人数减少了25.5万人，显示教育部门就业在接下来经济生活正常化中的更大恢复空间。不仅如此，随着教育部门就业和线下课程的恢复，大量居家看护儿童的以女性为主的劳动力将会增加，成为中期非农就业新增的一大重要潜力，这一观点也是多位美联储官员如Kashkari, Mester看好未来就业的原因之一。\n油价飙升，通胀预期再起\n今年3月以来，在旺盛的需求以及需求将继续旺盛的市场预期下，油价开始上行，周四OPEC+未能就增产问题达成一致，WTI原油价格自2018年以来首次站上75美元/桶。3月开始，随着经济持续复苏，原油需求强劲，尽管OPEC+不断增产，但是原油供需缺口仍存，原油价格一路飙升，WTI原油和布油价格均从3月下旬的60美元/桶附近一路走上70美元/桶以上。本周四，OPEC+早先初步达成协议，2021年12月前平均每月增产40万桶/日。低于市场预期，后又因阿联酋反对而搁置，WTI和布油价格双双站上75美元/桶，其中WTI油价为2018年10月以来的新高。\n\n今年以来，美国EIA原油库存整体处于下行趋势，体现原油需求旺盛，5月起原油库存连续6周下降，反映当前供需缺口较大，油价或易上难下。6月30日，EIA最新数据显示，截至6月25日，当周原油库存减少671.8万桶，降幅高于预期的385万桶，为连续6周下降，连续下降的原油库存反映当前原油供需缺口较大。从本周OPEC+会议情况来看，OPEC+内部对于是否增产仍然存在一定分歧，同时，即便OPEC+对于增产达成协议，每月增加的原油产量也未必能够填补当前较大的供需缺口，因此短期来看，原油价格或将维持高位。目前最大变量或在伊核谈判，若短期内伊核谈判顺利，伊朗恢复原油供给和出口，将有助于缓解油价上行趋势;若短期内谈判不顺利，那么在新任强硬派总统易卜拉欣·莱希领导下，未来伊核谈判将有较大变数。\n\n美国通胀持续处于高位，主要来自能源和交通运输项拉动。在4月通胀数据远超市场预期后，美国5月通胀数据再次超市场预期，其主要拉动来自于交通运输和能源分项。5月美国未季调CPI同比录得5%，较前值4.2%上涨0.8pct，未季调核心CPI同比录得3.8%，较前值3%上涨0.8pct。一方面，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是5月通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因。另一方面，从CPI分项上来看，给5月份CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是交通运输和能源项，5月美国CPI交通运输分项同比增速达20%，能源分项同比增速高达28.5%，主要反映了疫情修复下人们出行需求的增加。与此同时，美联储更加关心的PCE指标也创历史新高，5月PCE同比增3.9%，远高于美联储2%的通胀目标，核心PCE同比增3.4%，为1992年以来的新高。\n\n在油价易上难下的情况下，通胀预期再次上行，通胀或阶段性维持高位。在6月美联储议息会议偏鹰派态度下，市场通胀预期下行带动美债利率不升反降，在6月18日和21日到达阶段性低点后，近期随着油价连续上行，通胀预期再次抬头。从油价和通胀的关系来看，首先，油价与美国CPI细项中能源类商品的走势基本正相关;其次，CPI分项中能源项同比与CPI总体同比走势高度吻合。因此，在通胀预期上行和油价带动通胀的共同作用下，美国通胀或阶段性维持高位。同时，交通运输项、住房项维持高位，二手车价格短期内居高不下，同样会对通胀水平有所支撑。\n\n美联储会提前收紧吗?\n就年内的Taper而言，就业市场仍是美联储关注的重点，在就业市场稳步复苏但远未恢复到正常时期水平的情况下，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前。虽然当前通胀位于高位，并将在未来一定时间内维持高位，但是对于年内的Taper而言，通胀并不是美联储关注的重点。美联储当前关注的重点仍是就业市场，当前就业市场复苏进程较为稳定，但远未恢复到正常时期水平。在6月大部分州停发失业救济金后，居民就业意愿逐渐提升，同时叠加9月学校复学，看护小孩需求降低，预计就业市场或将在7、8月加速修复，届时或将触发美联储对于Taper的讨论。因此，6月的非农报告让我们保持此前的判断，预计美联储Taper进程不会提前，正式开始讨论Taper的时点或在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上，而宣布Taper和正式开始实施Taper的时点或将发生在今年年底和明年年初。\n就此后的加息而言，通胀将成为美联储关注的重点，如果通胀较长时间维持高位，那么不排除美联储在2022年底前提前加息。一方面，6月美联储点阵图显示所有决策者都预计到2021年底联邦基金利率将维持在接近零的水平，有7位官员预计将在2022年加息，13位委员预计将在2023年加息，相比3月点阵图，预计2022年加息的官员增加3人，预计2023年加息的官员增加6人。尽管点阵图和是否加息并无直接联系，但是依然反映出美联储官员对于加息态度的变化。另一方面，在议息会议之后，美联储官员的鹰派声音也明显增加，最具代表性的是以鸽派著称的圣路易斯联储主席布拉德突然转鹰，他表示，连他本人在内的7位政策制定者均预计美联储将采取激进的措施来遏制通胀，这是对通胀上升快于预期的自然反应。此外，达拉斯联储主席卡普兰、美联储理事沃勒、里士满联储主席巴尔金近期均发表鹰派言论。根据美联储对于通胀的最新预测以及鲍威尔对于通胀表述的边际变化，如果通胀以及通胀预期持续走高，那么不排除美联储将提前采取行动遏制通胀(即在2022年底前加息)的可能。\n\n年内美债走势如何?\n随着美联储货币政策转向，我们预计美债将在Taper讨论正式开始之前维持在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。根据我们此前的报告《债市启明系列20210622—美债利率为何跳水?》(2021-06-22)，近期美债利率的下行分为两个阶段，美联储6月议息会议之前是流动性过剩和拜登基建计划受阻推动的下行，议息会议之后是流动性过剩下通胀预期下行引发的利率下行。短期而言，预计美债利率将在1.4%-1.6%之间震荡。\n而根据上一轮Taper经验，在本轮Taper讨论开始后到正式实施Taper前，预计美债利率将小幅上行，或将到达1.8%-2.0%的水平。2013年5月22日，时任美联储主席伯南克在国会发表证词，在提问环节，伯南克表示，如果就业市场持续改善，并且我们对改善势头的持续有信心，那么将在未来几次会议上减少购买规模。在伯南克的讲话和议息会议纪要共同冲击下，市场反应剧烈，出现了所谓的“缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)”。在突如其来的Taper信号出现后，美债收益率快速大幅飙升，从2013年5月1日起，10年期美债收益率开始迅速飙升，到9月议息会议前夕已由月初的1.66%升至高点2.98%，上行超130bps。\n\n就本轮Taper而言，美联储已经吸取上一轮出现“缩减恐慌”的教训，提前与市场进行沟通，同时市场也对Taper有充分预期，因此美债利率大概率不会出现斜率很大的上行。鲍威尔在6月议息会议后的发布会上表示，会尽所能避免市场出现过度反应，在做出任何决定之前会提前告知市场。同时，拉达斯联储主席卡普兰也在近日表示，美联储将逐步减少资产购买，但这次将更加顺利，因为投资者已经知道该措施正被商议中，美联储这次将避免制造2013年的“缩减恐慌”。因此，我们认为在美联储正式释放Taper讨论信号后，美债利率将会有所上行，但是不会出现2013年高达130bps的幅度，或将达到1.8%-2.0%的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5181799,"commentId":"5181799","gmtCreate":1625920273970,"gmtModify":1663230801143,"authorId":3586104114548426,"author":{"id":3586104114548426,"idStr":"3586104114548426","authorId":3586104114548426,"name":"Soonsoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df389cc63fd9969b0cf7f3f8c4c5507","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":152529677,"objectIdStr":"152529677","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[真香]","text":"[真香]","html":"[真香]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}