From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.
The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.
The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$
Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:
The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.
However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.
But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.
Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?
Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?
More impacts on rate hike decision or not?
Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~
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🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short. The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran. If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus. This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.
I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation. This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation. So CPI will definitely be affected.
Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again.
@Tiger_comments
取决于这场战争持续多久，是否蔓延到邻国。如果对石油和大宗商品的影响有限，那么我们处于美联储可能暂停加息或再次加息的正确趋势。这将符合市场预期，股市将从这里开始上涨。但是如果战争升级，通货膨胀将更难控制。
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The war won't affect much on the CPI.
There are impacts on rate hike decision. US needs to consider both internal and external. Can the US citizens "shollow" the higher rates? There higher the rates, the higher the products prices.. Companies will pass the higher cost to consumers. Those with property loans will face financial difficulties, and the chain of reactions will further push the cost of living higher.
Opportunities for the careful, calm, and discipline investors.
May the market be with you!
戰爭多頭列出了戰爭和指數表現。似乎五分之四的人在戰爭爆發後呈現出上升勢頭。
The war in Israel is like a storm at sea. It is unpredictable and dangerous. It could sink the ship of the global economy, or it could simply blow over. Only time will tell.
The Fed is the captain of the ship. It is responsible for keeping the economy afloat. The Fed is facing a difficult decision: should it raise interest rates to try to calm the storm, or should it keep interest rates low to support economic growth?
Only time will tell whether the Fed will make the right decision. But one thing is for sure: the war in Israel is a serious threat to the global economy.