PCE Saves Market? How to Trade as Sentiment Turns to Extreme Fear?

Tiger_comments
2024-12-20

Friday's data showed that US PCE and Core PCE figures came in below expectations across the board. PCE briefly halted the accelerating pre-market sell-off trend.

Traders are continuing to bet that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January and are increasingly expecting another rate cut in March, with one more anticipated in October. In other words, the market's expectation of a hawkish rate-cut stance remains unchanged.

Market shifts to fear?

However, no one can predict whether the market will rise or fall tonight, as we’re facing the largest triple witching event ever.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index shows sentiment has reached Extreme Fear

VIX volatility index has surged 72% this week.

Would you buy the dip or go short?

If a market plunge occurs, which stock do you think is the best candidate for a dip buy tonight?

Previously surging stocks like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ have fallen to around $400, $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ is at $300, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ has dropped to $250, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is still consolidating near $130.

Several major banks predict the stock market could adjust in Q1 or Q2 next year. Currently, the S&P 500's Shiller PE ratio has reached historical highs, with the mean value being 17.19. Before Wednesday’s sell-off, the ratio was second only to the 2000 dot-com bubble.

If tonight’s adjustment ends up being brief, would you choose to short next year’s performance?

Are you bullish or bearish on US stock performance?

Would you take advantage of triple witching to find some trading opportunities?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

# MSFT & META Earnings Divergence: Any Post Earnings Plan?

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  • icycrystal
    ·2024-12-21
    TOP
    rate cuts whatever cuts, stay invested... there's always the ups and downs... market always swing... like a yoyo...

    Friday's data showed that US PCE and Core PCE figures came in below expectations across the board. PCE briefly halted the accelerating pre-market sell-off trend.

    Traders are continuing to bet that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in January and are increasingly expecting another rate cut in March, with one more anticipated in October. In other words, the market's expectation of a hawkish rate-cut stance remains unchanged.

    @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @GoodLife99 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @HelenJanet @rL

    If tonight’s adjustment ends up being brief, would you choose to short next year’s performance?

    Are you bullish or bearish on US stock performance?

    Would you take advantage of triple witching to find some trading opportunities?

    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

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    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news articles, here is a summary of the recent US stock performance and market trends:

      On Friday, the Dow Jones index gained around 100 points, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed mixed results.

      Source  

        

      Concerns over high interest rates in the coming year led to a drop in the stock market on Friday.

      Source  

        

      On December 19, Wall Street stocks finished flat as Treasury bond yields continued to rise.

      Source  

        

      Earlier last week, US benchmark equity indexes were higher as markets evaluated the latest economic data and corporate earnings.

      Source  

        

      The US stock market experienced a steep sell-off on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's revised outlook for interest rates and inflation. However, it stabilized on Thursday.

      Source  

        

      Based on these articles, it appears that the US stock market has shown mixed performance recently. While there have been some positive indicators, such as GDP growth in the third quarter and lower jobless claims, concerns over rising interest rates have impacted market sentiment. It's important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and it's advisable to monitor the latest news and trends.

      Regarding the question of shorting next year's performance, as an AI financial analyst, I cannot provide personalized investment advice. Shorting stocks involves a high level of risk and requires careful analysis and understanding of market conditions. It would be advisable to consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      As for triple witching, it refers to the simultaneous expiration of futures contracts, stock options, and index options. Triple witching days can potentially create increased trading volume and volatility, providing opportunities for traders. However, it's important to note that trading during such periods can also be risky, and it requires careful consideration of one's trading strategy and risk tolerance.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's important to do thorough research and seek professional guidance before making any investment decisions.

      2024-12-21
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  • Shyon
    ·2024-12-21
    TOP
    Given the current market conditions, I'm cautious but watching for opportunities. The recent PCE data suggests inflation might be under control, which could affect the Fed's decisions. With volatility increasing and the triple witching event, I'm staying alert.

    If the market dips tonight, I might consider buying the dip on strong stocks like $Tesla (TSLA) or $NVIDIA (NVDA), which have shown resilience.

    I’m wary of going short right now, especially with major banks predicting a potential correction next year. Shorting feels risky given the volatility tied to triple witching.

    Overall, I'm slightly bearish in the short-term, as the market looks overheated with the high Shiller PE ratio. I'll consider using triple witching for shorter-term trades but will stay cautious.

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  • Aqa
    ·2024-12-23
    It is extreme fear for this stock now. It would be like gambling to buy the dip . Today is triple witching for $SingPost(S08.SI)$. Its share price has dropped 9.82% this morning. 3 top senior executives including Group CEO, CFO were fired over their handling of whistle-blowing report. Thanks @Tiger_comments @SPOT_ON @Shyon @icycrystal @GoodLife99 @Optionspuppy @SPACE ROCKET @Blinkfans @Fenger1188 @koolgal
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  • nomadic_m
    ·2024-12-22
    The prevailing extreme fear sentiment, as reflected by the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the surging VIX volatility index, presents a compelling buying opportunity. In this environment, I'm opting to buy the dip in my core portfolio holdings, $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF(SPYG)$ and $Schwab US Large-Cap ETF(SCHX)$, rather than individual stocks. These ETFs track established indices, such as the S&P 500 and the S&P Total Market Index, offering broad diversification and mitigating individual stock risk.

    Historical data suggests that periods of extreme fear are often followed by market rebounds.

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  • Aqa
    ·2024-12-21
    The market sentiment has now turned to extreme fear. There are always turbulent times for investors. Boom and bust cycles have long been a feature of investing. We should resist the urge to ditch our investment strategy or sell. Staying the course during big declines can help us reap the long-term benefits of the markets. Data shows that those who stick with an investment plan at a risk level suitable for their goals — while remaining diversified, strategic and passive in asset allocation, and at a low cost — stand a much better chance of success. Recommend dollar cost averaging and exercise due diligence before each trade. Thanks @Tiger_comments @icycrystal
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  • Aqa
    ·2024-12-21
    The market sentiment has now turned to extreme fear. There are always turbulent times for investors. Boom and bust cycles have long been a feature of investing. We should resist the urge to ditch our investment strategy or sell. Staying the course during big declines can help us reap the long-term benefits of the markets. Data shows that those who stick with an investment plan at a risk level suitable for their goals — while remaining diversified, strategic and passive in asset allocation, and at a low cost — stand a much better chance of success. Recommend dollar cost averaging and exercise due diligence before each trade. Thanks @Tiger_comments @icycrystal
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  • SPACE ROCKET
    ·2024-12-21
    I'm slightly bearish and afraid of catching a falling knife. So I did nothing, didn't buy nor sell. Just let my prior options do their work.
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  • yourcelesttyy
    ·2024-12-21
    The surge in the VIX and extreme fear sentiment suggest caution, but these conditions often present opportunities. I’d watch $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ for potential dip buys if the sell-off continues. Long-term, the market’s high Shiller PE ratio signals overvaluation, so a short-term bounce might still face headwinds in 2024. Triple witching could offer great short-term trades. What’s your strategy tonight?
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  • Zarkness
    ·2024-12-20
    Buy into Tesla and nvidia on dips and wait for Christmas rally into earnings . That’s where the money is ! Just my opinion 😊🥂
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  • ECLC
    ·2024-12-22
    Lately, with high volatilities, have buying opportunities but must trade cautiously.
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  • 1PC
    ·2024-12-21
    Buy the Deep and Manage your Risk 🙏 Santa is coming to give all Tigers a Xmas 🎁 [Happy]
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  • Eagabeava
    ·2024-12-21
    Yeah buy the dips while all the institutions go on holidays!
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  • MicroStrategist
    ·2024-12-21
    haha Wall St plays this game, over and over again. do you all notice it?
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  • highhand
    ·2024-12-20
    the news is just an excuse to sell or buy by market makers and the big fishes
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  • AN88
    ·2024-12-21
    buy dip and go long
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