To The Moon

January 20th marked the inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, officially kicking off the "Trump 2.0" era.

This inauguration was quite different from past ceremonies, breaking several long-standing American traditions. For instance, it was moved from the usual outdoor setting to indoors, foreign leaders were invited—a rare exception—and it set a new record for fundraising. These unique elements definitely made the event stand out.

Now, when it comes to the financial markets, what really grabs my attention are the executive orders Trump might sign after taking office. There were plenty of expectations about his policies before, but the real question is whether there will be any surprises. These unexpected moves could shake up the markets, so it's best to tread carefully when trading next week.

Impact on U.S. Stock Indexes

Last week's strong rebound in the U.S. stock indexes suggests the market is already bracing for any executive orders from Trump's administration. Unless there's a major surprise, we probably won't see much impact on the indexes.

Technically, the indexes found strong support at the 20-week moving average last week, leading to a sharp rebound. Given how the U.S. stock market usually behaves, next week's movements are likely to follow this trend. Whether we hit new highs or not isn't the main concern. What matters is that the bull market trend remains intact. The key time to watch will be around February-March, so for now, it's best to keep an eye on those moving averages.

Crude Oil’s Short-Term Outlook

Crude oil prices have surged recently, thanks to last-minute sanctions on Russian oil exports and a ban on offshore drilling imposed by Biden before he left office. These actions boosted market sentiment.

However, once Trump officially takes over, the big question is whether he’ll continue these sanctions. If he eases them, oil prices could take a hit. On the flip side, if he issues orders that favor more oil drilling, we might also see a short-term dip in prices.

Overall, we're not too optimistic about oil prices next week. The market's reaction will largely depend on the actual policies announced, but any changes are expected to stay within normal fluctuation levels.

Potential Gold Price Spikes

Gold prices have often seen sudden spikes around February in recent years. With Trump now in office and gold prices nearing record highs, any policy news or even a tweet could trigger a sharp rise. We might see gold prices pushing towards the 3,000 mark in the next 2-3 weeks.

As long as gold stays above its key moving averages, it’s not a good time to short. After these potential spikes, though, the focus will shift. Events like the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine or Palestine-Israel conflicts, or a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve, could lead to a long period of adjustment and volatility in gold prices. For now, gold bulls should just go with the flow.

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