NVDA surges in GTC Developer Conference Week?
On early Mon, 17 Mar 2025 morning (4am US time), US stock futures are looking grim again, coming off Friday’s mini-recovery rally. (see below)
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US market is going to start the week, marginally lower than last week’s closing.
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While there is no clear indication that US market will continue to trend lower thereafter.
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Neither could we foretell that its course may turnaround and rises instead, later in the day.
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It is a wait-and-see “game”.
What is certain ?
One of Wall Street preoccupations this week will be, US’s Fed FOMC meeting Mar 18-19.
Traders will be dying to know:
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Central bank’s decision on interest rates.
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Fed chair Powell’s thoughts on the path forward.
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Hear him on his thoughts on overall health of US economy that many are certain has been wrecked by the Trump administration and president-in-waiting Musk (haha).
CME Fedwatch Tool.
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The CME Fedwatch tool has locked in a 99% certainty that US central bank will hold interest rate (4.25% - 4.5%) steady for the 2nd time in 2025. (see above)
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There exists a remote 1.0% chance that the Fed will cut interest rate by -0.25%.
Besides that, the latest dot-plot are on the same page as well. (see below)
US’s Fed Dot Plot document.
As of 18 Dec 2024, the ‘latest’ Fed dot plot include:
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The Fed reduced its target range for the federal funds rate by -25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%.
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The FOMC projects fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously anticipated.
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Median forecast now shows only -50 basis points (half a percentage point) of total cuts in 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in September 2024.
US Retail Sales (MoM).
US retail sales report for February 2025, is set to release on Mon, 17 Mar 2025.
It will give insight into the state of the consumer, at a time when investors have grown more fearful of an economic downturn.
Recap.
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US retail sales contracted -0.9% (MoM) in January 2025. (see above)
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It was significantly worse than the forecasted -0.2% drop.
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This has been the largest decline since March 2023.
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Decrease was broadly based, with sales at (a) sporting goods, (b) hobby, (c) musical instrument, & (d) book stores experiencing the biggest decline (-4.6%), followed by motor vehicles and part dealers (-2.8%).
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Severe weather conditions and fires in Los Angeles were cited as factors contributing to the unexpected slump in consumer spending.
Forecast - February 2025.
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Economists polled by Dow Jones expect retail sales to have increased +0.6% in February 2025, after falling massively the previous month.
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Excluding autos, it’s expected to have risen +0.3%, up from a 0.4% decrease in January 2025.
Nvidia’s Week.
Nvidia's weeklong GTC developer conference from 17 Mar 2025 to 21 Mar 2025 will take place in San Jose, California.
The 5-day conference will cover a wide range of topics, including:
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AI & machine learning innovations.
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Accelerated computing technologies.
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Robotics and agentic AI.
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Quantum computing (with dedicated "Quantum Day" on 20 Mar 2025)
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Scientific discovery and breakthroughs.
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Automotive advancements
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New hardware and software launches, including potential announcements related to the Blackwell chip lineup.
The conference with an expected attendance of 25,000 in-person and 300,000 virtual participants, will feature over:
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1,000 sessions.
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2,000 speakers.
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400 exhibitors (nearly).
Will the conference boost Nvidia’s stock price ?
According to TD Cowen, Analyst, Joshua Buchalter - historically, GTC has been typically more a catalyst for the supply chain than Nvidia.
Stil, he rates Nvidia stock as a “Buy” with a price target of $175 per share.
Additionally, $Bank of America(BAC)$ Securities, Analyst, Vivek Arya reiterated a “Buy” rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of $200.
Mr Arya expects important product updates from Nvidia at the show will help to boost its stock price.
Just for this week, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic that this year's GTC event could provide a positive impetus for Nvidia's stock, especially given the current focus on AI technologies.
It's worth noting that Nvidia's stock has faced some challenges recently, declining -12.03% YTD (as of last Fri, 14 Mar 2025).
Is Nvidia still a buy in the face of a worsening US economy as confirmed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ? (see above)
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Do you think Nvidia stock price will inch higher by the end of the week?
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Do you think US economy will slip into a recession or stagflation in 2025 ?
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