To The Moon

On April 29, 2025, the stock market is reeling as tech giants face a reckoning. The Nasdaq Composite, which soared 1.26% to 17,482.94 on April 25, is under pressure after Nvidia dropped over 3% on news of Huawei’s competing AI chip, per posts on X. AMD also stumbled, falling amid new China export setbacks, echoing Nvidia’s $5.5 billion Q1 hit from U.S. restrictions on its H20 chip. The S&P 500, up 0.74% to 5,525.21 last Friday, is wobbling with futures down 0.2% today. With trade tensions simmering and the AI frenzy cooling, is the tech-driven rally over? Let’s dive into the market’s latest shifts, spotlight stocks to watch, and map out trading strategies.

Market Dynamics: AI Hype Meets Reality

The Nasdaq’s tech rally is hitting a wall as U.S.-China trade tensions exacerbate challenges for AI chipmakers. U.S. export curbs on Nvidia’s H20 chip have cost the company billions, and now Huawei’s Ascend 910D chip is gaining ground in China, with firms like ByteDance testing it as an alternative. AMD faces similar export woes, with analysts speculating that Broadcom could be next, per posts on X. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s four-day rally is at risk, with the VIX at 60.13, signaling persistent volatility.

Key Market Updates

• Tech Woes: Nvidia’s 3% drop reflects fears of losing China’s market to Huawei. AMD’s decline adds to the sector’s pain, with export restrictions biting hard.

• Financial Strength: Bank of America saw shareholders approve executive pay and elect directors on April 22, showing stability in finance, per Reuters.

• Energy Resilience: ExxonMobil gained 1.5% after a 5% Q1 production increase, per Reuters, as oil prices rise amid global uncertainty.

Stocks to Watch Today

• Nvidia ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ): Down over 3% as Huawei’s chip threatens its China dominance. A high-risk, high-reward play.

• Bank of America ( $Bank of America(BAC)$ ): A stable financial stock after shareholder approvals, offering a safe haven.

• ExxonMobil ( $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ ): Energy sector strength with a 1.5% gain—resilient amid market turmoil.

• Palantir ( $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ): A tech stock with a $49.44 billion market cap, per Yahoo Finance, riding AI trends but vulnerable to trade risks.

• Eldorado Gold ( $Empire Oil(EGO.AU)$ ): A small-cap gold stock with a $2.35 billion market cap, per Yahoo Finance, as a safe-haven option.

Trading Opportunities: Strategies for the Shift

Bullish Plays

• ExxonMobil (XOM): Energy’s momentum is a bright spot. Buy at $115, stop at $112, target $120.

• Bank of America (BAC): A defensive pick. Buy at $42, stop at $40, target $45, leveraging its stability.

Defensive Plays

• Eldorado Gold (EGO): Gold as a hedge against volatility. Buy at $11, stop at $10, target $12.50.

Risks to Watch

• Tech Sell-Off: Nvidia and AMD’s struggles could drag the Nasdaq down 5% to 16,600 if Huawei gains more ground.

• Trade Tensions: Ongoing U.S.-China friction could push the S&P 500 to 5,200, hitting tech hardest.

• Earnings Pressure: Upcoming Apple and Microsoft earnings may reveal more tariff-related woes, per Reuters.

My Strategy: I’m allocating 40% to XOM for resilience, 30% to BAC for stability, 20% to EGO as a hedge, and 10% cash to catch tech dips. The AI boom may be cooling, but selective plays can still win.

Visualizing Nvidia’s Decline

This chart highlights Nvidia’s downward trend, with the latest 3% drop adding pressure—watch for further slides or a rebound.

Market Outlook: A New Reality

The S&P 500 has a 50% chance of holding above 5,500 if trade tensions ease, but a 50% chance of dropping to 5,200 if tech continues to falter. The AI boom that fueled 2024’s rally is facing a reality check—Huawei’s rise and export curbs are real threats. Energy and financials offer stability, while tech needs a catalyst to recover. With Apple and Microsoft earnings looming, volatility is here to stay.

What’s your move? Are you hedging with EGO, banking on XOM’s strength, or waiting for a tech bottom? Share your strategy below—let’s navigate this shift together!

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