To The Moon

**Alibaba’s 2025 Results: Hits and Misses Against Expectations**

Alibaba just released its Q4 FY2025 earnings, and the results were a mixed bag compared to market expectations. Here’s a breakdown of how the Chinese tech giant performed.

### **Revenue Slightly Misses Estimates**

Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 236.45 billion ($32.58 billion), up 7% year-over-year. However, this fell just short of the expected RMB 237.24 billion. Analysts point to weaker consumer spending and global trade uncertainties as key factors.

### **Net Income Disappoints Due to One-Time Factors**

While net income surged 279% YoY to RMB 12.38 billion ($1.71 billion), it was far below the projected RMB 24.7 billion. The miss was mainly due to losses from subsidiary disposals and changes in equity valuations.

### **Key Business Segments: Strong Growth in Some Areas**

1. **Taobao & Tmall (China Commerce)**

- Revenue grew 12% YoY, beating the expected 5% growth. Strong merchant engagement and improved monetization helped this segment outperform.

2. **Cloud & AI Business**

- Revenue rose 18% YoY, slightly above the 16% forecast. AI-related revenue continued its triple-digit growth streak for the seventh straight quarter.

3. **International Digital Commerce (AIDC)**

- Revenue jumped 22% YoY, meeting expectations. Losses narrowed, showing progress in profitability.

### **Profitability and Shareholder Returns**

Adjusted EBITA (a key profit metric) climbed 36% YoY to RMB 32.62 billion, signaling strong cost management. Alibaba also returned cash to shareholders, buying back $11.9 billion in stock and approving $4.6 billion in dividends.

### **Market Reaction & Outlook**

Despite the solid cloud and e-commerce performance, Alibaba’s stock dipped 4-6% premarket due to the revenue and net income misses. However, shares are still up ~58% year-to-date, reflecting optimism around AI and cloud expansion.

### **Final Takeaway**

Alibaba’s latest results show:

- **Wins**: Cloud/AI growth, Taobao strength, and cost discipline.

- **Challenges**: Revenue softness and one-time profit drags.

While short-term concerns linger, Alibaba’s long-term bets on AI and global expansion could keep investors hopeful.