To The Moon

$Berkshire Bancorp, Inc.(BERK)$

When you hear the name Warren Buffett, what comes to mind? Probably not the words “market timer.”

Instead, you’re more likely to think of phrases like “buy and hold,” “value investing,” and “compounder of capital.” Buffett himself has often said that predicting short-term market movements is a fool’s game. He mocks attempts to time the market and famously said, “We have no idea what the stock market will do next year, or even next week.”

But what if we’ve misunderstood him all along?

According to legendary value investor David Einhorn, Warren Buffett’s long-term investment success owes just as much to when he invests as to what he invests in. In other words, Buffett may be the greatest market timer of our generation—not because he predicts crashes, but because he steps back precisely when markets offer no bargains, and steps in when everyone else is panicking.

And right now? Buffett is doing it again.

The Einhorn Revelation: Buffett’s Timing Legacy

In a recent interview, Einhorn delivered a powerful insight that has largely flown under the radar:

“Buffett is incredibly underrated as a market timer. Not in a short-term forecasting sense, but when it comes to big-picture, multi-year decision-making. He steps aside before bubbles burst, and he loads up when assets are truly cheap. That’s an extraordinary skill—and one of the keys to his long-term success.”

Einhorn highlights a pattern that’s been remarkably consistent throughout Buffett’s 80-year investment career: his ability to sense froth, exit gracefully, and re-enter only when the value justifies the risk.

Let’s explore the record.

A Walk Through Buffett’s Timing Masterclass

1. 1969: Closing the Partnership

Buffett shocked the investment world in 1969 by shutting down his wildly successful Buffett Partnership. Why? He believed he could no longer find bargains in the overheated market of the late 1960s.

At the time, many considered this overly cautious. But just a few years later, in 1973–1974, the market plunged into one of the worst bear markets in history. Buffett avoided the crash, kept his powder dry, and returned to buy high-quality businesses at bargain prices.

2. 1987: Getting Liquid Before Black Monday

Before the infamous Black Monday crash of October 1987, Buffett had quietly raised cash and sold many liquid positions. He didn’t predict the exact day of the crash—but he saw valuations stretching and stepped aside. When stocks fell by over 20% in a single day, Buffett was one of the few with capital to deploy.

3. Late 1990s: Sitting Out the Dot-Com Mania

While everyone else piled into tech stocks in the late 1990s, Buffett warned that valuations were unsustainable. He was widely mocked for being out of touch. But when the bubble burst in 2000, Buffett had once again preserved capital and positioned Berkshire to take advantage of the post-crash recovery.

4. 2005–2009: The Crisis Playbook

In the mid-2000s, Buffett became increasingly cautious. He didn’t make any big acquisitions, preferring to hold cash. When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, he pounced—injecting billions into distressed companies like Goldman Sachs and General Electric. He also made one of his most iconic moves: the acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway.

5. 2021–2025: Trimming Apple, Building Cash

Now, we’re seeing the same playbook once again. After aggressive buybacks during 2020 and 2021, Buffett has started trimming his most successful position—Apple—while letting cash levels balloon to record highs.

Buffett’s Cash Pile: Not Just Caution, But Strategy

Berkshire Hathaway now holds more than $189 billion in cash and cash equivalents, according to its latest filing—an all-time high. But it’s not the absolute number that tells the story. It’s the cash-to-assets ratio that really speaks to Buffett’s outlook.

Whenever this ratio spikes, it’s not because Buffett is fearful of crashes—it’s because he sees nothing compelling to buy. And historically, these cash peaks have coincided with some of the most overheated markets:

• Before the dot-com crash (1999–2000)

• Before the financial crisis (2006–2007)

• Today, in 2024–2025, as mega-cap tech trades at historic premiums and safe yields are available in fixed income

This is not market prediction. It’s value-based market preparation.

Why Did Buffett Sell Apple?

Let’s not forget—Buffett has called Apple the best investment Berkshire Hathaway ever made. But he’s not sentimental. When the numbers stop adding up, he makes the hard call.

• When Berkshire first bought Apple, it traded at around 9x earnings, and was growing revenues at 20%+ annually.

• Today, Apple trades at 40x earnings, while growth has slowed below nominal GDP.

• That translates to a 3% earnings yield, while U.S. Treasuries offer 4–5% with less risk.

Buffett sold—not because he’s bearish on Apple, but because he knows opportunity cost. He’s simply reallocating toward more rational outcomes.

Buffett’s 1999 Warning: Still Relevant Today

In Berkshire’s 1999 annual meeting, a shareholder asked whether Buffett would consider disbanding Berkshire the way he shut down his partnership in 1969.

Buffett replied:

“If I were running only a marketable securities portfolio, and I couldn’t find anything attractive to buy, I’d explain that honestly to my partners. That’s what I did in 1969. Expectations were too high. Value was too low. I couldn’t promise results in that environment.”

That candid mindset is still alive today. Buffett isn’t making public predictions. But by building up cash and dialing down exposure, he’s saying everything we need to hear—without speaking a word.

Is It Really Market Timing?

Some might argue this isn’t market timing at all—that Buffett is merely reacting to valuations. But what else is market timing, if not selling when assets are expensive and buying when they’re cheap?

It’s not about short-term charts or macro calls. It’s about risk-adjusted returns and the discipline to wait for fat pitches.

Most investors swing at every pitch, trying to make gains every quarter. Buffett’s secret? He’s willing to wait—sometimes for years—for the pitch he can knock out of the park.

What Individual Investors Can Learn

We may not manage hundreds of billions or have the luxury of buying entire companies. But Buffett’s approach can be applied at any scale:

1. Valuation Matters

Don’t chase stocks just because they’re popular. Ask: what am I paying for this stream of earnings?

2. It’s Okay to Hold Cash

Cash isn’t trash when nothing is cheap. It’s your ammo for future opportunity.

3. Patience Is Power

Buffett didn’t outperform by being active—he outperformed by waiting.

4. Don’t Time, But Prepare

You don’t need to predict a crash. But you do need a plan when value evaporates. That may mean trimming expensive winners, parking cash, or allocating to safer yields.

5. Think in Decades, Not Quarters

Buffett has been investing since 1942. He’s lived through over a dozen recessions, multiple wars, inflation cycles, and political regimes. His edge isn’t timing the week—it’s understanding the inevitability of cycles and positioning accordingly.

Closing Thoughts: The Silent Genius of Market Timing

Warren Buffett will never describe himself as a market timer. But his record speaks volumes.

Whenever markets become irrational, Buffett steps aside. Whenever others panic, he steps in. This cycle of caution and courage is the very definition of intelligent capital allocation.

He doesn’t need to predict the next crash—because he’s already prepared for it.

So whether the correction comes in 2026, 2027, or 2032 doesn’t matter. Buffett will be ready. Will you?

In a market full of noise, Buffett’s discipline remains a masterclass in quiet wisdom. And perhaps now, at long last, it’s time we recognize him not just as the Oracle of Omaha, but also as the greatest market timer of our time—even if he never admits it.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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