To The Moon

$SIA(C6L.SI)$ 🛫📉SIA Drops Hard! Earnings Turbulence or Prime Accumulation Zone?📊🛬

I’m tracking Singapore Airlines (SGX: C6L) after a brutal earnings shock sent the stock into a steep dive, closing down 7.37% on 29Jul25 to S$7.04. Q1 FY2026 net profit plummeted 58.8% YoY to S$186M, spooked by Air India-related associate losses and falling interest income. Even with revenue rising 1.5% to S$4.8B and a record 10.3M passengers carried (+6.9% YoY), investors weren’t buying the narrative.

I’m dissecting this move from every angle. On the surface, SIA still boasts a solid 87.6% group load factor and one of the healthiest balance sheets in the global aviation space. But the decline in passenger yields (–2.9%) and management’s warning around cargo weakness, macro pressures, and tariff disruptions have cast shadows over what was once clear-sky optimism.

I am watching the technical setup evolve rapidly. On the weekly chart, price collapsed from a 52-week high of S$7.63 straight through the 5-day (S$7.27) and 10-day (S$7.12) moving averages, nearly tagging the 20MA (S$6.90) intraday before closing at S$7.05. A sharp bearish engulfing candle formed, wiping out two weeks of gains in one session. The 30MA (S$6.77) is now a critical line in the sand.

Now layer in the 4-hour chart. The stock has flushed below the lower Bollinger and Keltner Bands, breaching EMA 13, 21, and 55 with conviction. This is the first major volatility expansion since the April breakdown, and it signals institutional de-risking. Volume confirms it; 29.78M shares traded, significantly above normal. This is not retail panic. It’s portfolio rotation.

RSI(6) sits at 46.81, down from recent highs above 70. MACD still shows a positive crossover (DIF 0.195 vs DEA 0.162), but momentum is fading fast. The histogram has started to roll over. If the MACD line crosses under next week, it may signal a deeper retracement, especially if S$7.00 doesn’t hold.

I’m evaluating the valuation floor here. The stock trades at 8.26x trailing P/E, 1.36x P/B, and 1.09x P/S, with a dividend yield of 6.82% on a S$0.48 payout. It’s got a fortress balance sheet, with S$3.02B in equity and minimal leverage compared to global peers like Lufthansa or Delta.

Structurally, the story hasn’t collapsed. Fleet upgrades are on track. ESG positioning remains a differentiator. KrisFlyer and Scoot offer data leverage and low-cost exposure. Long-term tailwinds from India’s Vistara merger and ASEAN demand are intact.

But the technicals say respect the breakdown. This could either be a one-off earnings miss or the start of EPS compression into FY2026. With volume peaking and volatility spiking, I’m watching for a high-velocity retest of the S$6.60–6.80 region, where the 30W MA and prior breakout base align.

Would I bottom-fish under S$7? Not yet. I’m waiting to see if MACD confirms a rollover, and whether S$6.94 (session low) holds on retest. If that breaks, the next true demand shelf is near S$6.60. Bulls need a weekly close back above S$7.12 to regain control. Until then, this is a falling knife with a dividend.

So here’s what I’m asking: Is Singapore Airlines under S$7 a fundamentally supported entry or are we flying blind through earnings turbulence? Are we pricing in a temporary air pocket or structural downgrade?

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