To The Moon

I am intrigued by the recent developments surrounding Circle's $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   financial performance, as detailed in the post about its potential dumping risk. The company beat revenue expectations with a 53 percent increase to 658 million dollars, surpassing Wall Street estimates of 646 million dollars. This growth is impressive, especially given the context of the stablecoin market cooling after the GENIUS stablecoin bill in the United States and the stablecoin ordinance in Hong Kong.

I note that Circle reported a net loss of 482 million dollars in the second quarter, a stark contrast to the 33 million dollar profit from a year ago. However, I understand that this loss is largely influenced by a 424 million dollar expense from IPO-related equity incentives and a 167 million dollar increase in the fair value of convertible debt due to rising stock prices. This context makes the loss less alarming to me.

The decision to sell 10 million shares of Class A common stock, which led to a 5 percent drop in the stock price, catches my attention. This move, combined with the plan to issue 2 million new shares and existing shareholders selling 8 million more to raise over 1.6 billion dollars by August 14, 2025, suggests a strategic cash-out. I am cautious about the potential dilution and its impact on shareholder value.

I find the operational metrics encouraging despite the stock movement. The 90 percent growth in USDC circulation to 613 billion dollars by the end of the second quarter, reaching 652 billion dollars by August 10, 2025, and a market share increase to 28 percent, indicate strong demand. The adjusted EBITDA of 126 million dollars, up 52 percent and slightly above the expected 121 million dollars, with a 50 percent profit margin, shows Circle is generating solid earnings beneath the surface losses.

I am considering whether to cash out at the current price of around 150 dollars or hold, given the uncertainty. The pre-market surge of over 15 percent after the earnings release on August 12, 2025, which narrowed to a 1.27 percent gain at 163.21 dollars by the close, reflects mixed market sentiment. The year-to-date rise of over 400 percent to a 371.53 billion dollar market cap is notable, but the post-earnings drop of over 6 percent raises red flags.

I recognize the competitive landscape, with Circle trailing Tether's 1660 billion dollar USDT market share. The disclosed risks, including technical challenges, evolving regulations, and competition from yield-bearing digital assets, make me wary. These factors could pressure Circle's growth trajectory, and I will monitor how management addresses them.

Looking ahead, I am encouraged by Circle's guidance of a 40 percent compound annual growth rate for USDC circulation and other income projections of 75 to 85 million dollars for the 2025 fiscal year. However, the shareholder sell-off and potential market overreaction to the share sale filing make me hesitant to act impulsively.

In conclusion, I am cautiously optimistic about Circle's fundamentals but concerned about the immediate stock dynamics. I plan to assess the market's response over the next few days, especially around the August 14, 2025, completion of the share sale, before deciding whether to cash out at 150 dollars or wait for a potential bottom.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars