To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 01Sep25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore and Hong Kong.

America celebrates Labor Day on 1st September 2025 (Monday).

Observations (Economic Calendar)

• Several key economic indicators are on the horizon, offering a comprehensive look into both the manufacturing and services sectors.

Manufacturing

• The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to be 53.3, indicating an expansion from the prior period.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.6, which suggests a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

• The previous ISM Prices Paid sub-index was 64.8, signalling inflationary pressures. The upcoming release of this data will be a key indicator for future inflation trends.

Services

• The S&P Global Services PMI is forecasted at 55.4, suggesting an expansion in global service demand.

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 50.5, also pointing to an expansion in the services sector.

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid sub-index will be an important reference for service sector inflation.

Labour Market & Federal Reserve Outlook.

• The JOLTS Job Openings report will be released this week and is a critical reference for the U.S. employment landscape.

• This data, along with Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate, will be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to inform its interest rate decisions.

• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims (previously at 229,000) will also contribute to the overall labour market picture considered by the Federal Reserve.

• Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (01Sep25)

The earnings of NIO, Salesforce, UI Path and Macy's would be interesting in the coming week.

Both technical analysis and analyst sentiment suggest a positive outlook for the stock. Technical indicators point to a "strong buy" rating, while a consensus of analysts recommends a "buy" with a one-year price target of $344.62. This target represents a potential upside of 34.49% from the current price. In the past year, the stock has already seen a price increase of 1.9%.

Below is a summary of Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) earnings and financial metrics for fiscal year 2025, based on the provided data and additional context from recent earnings reports:

• Revenue: Salesforce’s revenue grew significantly from $6.6 billion in 2016 to $37.8 billion in fiscal 2025 (ended January 31, 2025), reflecting a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6%.

• Operating Profit: Operating profit surged from $115 million in 2016 to $7.6 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting disciplined cost management and profitable growth. Full-year 2025 saw a GAAP operating margin of 19.2% and a non-GAAP operating margin of 32.7%, both of which were significantly improved from prior years.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS improved from a loss of -$0.07 in 2016 to $6.36 in fiscal 2025, marking a record high for Salesforce.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The P/E ratio stood at 39.5, indicating a premium valuation reflective of Salesforce’s growth and market position. As of August 26, 2025, the TTM P/E ratio was reported at 38.16, with a forward P/E of 21.46, suggesting expectations of continued earnings growth.

• 10-Year CAGR for Revenue and Free Cash Flow (FCF): The 10-year revenue CAGR was 21.6%, aligning with the growth from $6.6 billion to $37.8 billion. Free cash flow CAGR was 28.8%, driven by strong operating cash flow growth.

• Debt-to-Assets Ratio: Salesforce maintained a low debt-to-assets ratio of 0.1, reflecting a strong balance sheet.

• Additional Highlights: Current Remaining Performance Obligation (cRPO): $29.6 billion in Q1 fiscal 2026, up 12% Y/Y, indicating strong future revenue visibility.

• AI and Data Cloud Growth: Data Cloud and AI annual recurring revenue exceeded $1 billion, up 120% Y/Y, with over 8,000 Agentforce deals closed since October 2024.

• Strategic Context: CEO Marc Benioff emphasised Salesforce’s leadership in AI-driven CRM, with Agentforce and Data Cloud driving enterprise transformation. The company’s focus on autonomous AI agents and a pending acquisition of Informatica Inc. (expected to close in early fiscal 2027) signal continued innovation and expansion.

The forecast for EPS and revenue is $2.78 and $10.14 billion, respectively.

This is a stock that I prefer to monitor for now. Can Salesforce triumph in the current age, or will its business be threatened by Artificial Intelligence (AI)?

Market Outlook of S&P500 (01Sep25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - currently shows a downtrend as the price ranges.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.21, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

Using technical analysis, 11 indicators indicate a “Buy” rating, while 3 indicate a “Sell” rating. Using the Daily interval, it has a “Strong Buy” rating.

Emerging Patterns (from Grok)

Bearish Engulfing (1D, Current, August 27, 2025)

• Implication: A bearish pattern indicating strong selling pressure, often marking the start or continuation of a downtrend.

Doji (1D, 1 candle ago, August 26, 2025)

• Implication: A Doji indicates indecision in the market, often appearing at the end of a trend or before a reversal.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week

• Short-Term Outlook (September 1–5, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to continue its bearish trend into the coming week, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. The price could test support at 5,345.01 (early 2025 low) or drop further to 5,300 if selling pressure intensifies.

• Long-Term Outlook: The trend remains bearish, with the S&P 500 in a correction phase that could mirror the early 2025 decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01. The current price of 5,312.45 is below the 50 MA (5,629.83) and 200 MA (5,796.34), supporting this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 or lower if bearish momentum continues.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

Given the above, the short-term trend is expected to remain bullish, but corrections are anticipated soon.

News and my thoughts from the past week (01Sep25)

US margin debt jumped $14.6 billion last month to $1.02 TRILLION, the highest level EVER. Over the last 2 months, margin debt has SPIKED by more than $100BN As a share of US GDP, it is only below the 2021 frenzy.

• Tesla is down 40% in Europe. Chinese company BYD is up 300% - X user Jackson Hinkle

• US FEDERAL APPEALS COURT RULES THAT MOST OF TRUMP'S TARIFFS ARE ILLEGAL - Investing dot com

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Insiders are selling

SENIOR TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: PACKAGE SHIPMENTS TO U.S. WILL BE SUBJECT TO FLAT DUTIES OF $80 TO $200 FOR SIX MONTHS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SPECIFIC DUTY RATES

Delinquencies for high-income borrowers in the US are SURGING: Auto loan and credit card delinquencies (30+ days) from Americans making $150,000+ annually have risen nearly 20% in 2 years. This is faster than for middle- and lower-income borrowers. - X user Global Markets Investor

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Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes. Japan's Core CPI was 3.4% in July, one of the highest readings since the 1980s. By comparison, US core CPI inflation was 3.1%. Japan’s core inflation has now been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 40 consecutive months. As a result, Japanese government bond yields keep rising, with the 30-year hitting 3.24%, the highest on record. Japan is in need of a major economic restructuring. - The Kobeissi Letter

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This is the worst BEAR MARKET in US Treasuries in modern history: The 20-year US Treasury drawdown has been ~38% since 2020, the largest in at least 100 years. Not even the 1970s or 1980s saw such a large decline, even when inflation was much higher. Public debt crisis? - X user Global Markets Investors

Switzerland’s Post Office is suspending shipments of US goods beginning tomorrow, August 26th, due to tariffs.

Jerome Powell has said the "Fed has adopted a new framework that removes the reference to the central bank seeing inflation that averages 2% over time," per Bloomberg.

My Investing Muse (01Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Pfizer lays off 100 workers at former Seagen HQ in Seattle area - Fierce Pharma

• ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. is being forced to accelerate planned layoffs after automated emails were mistakenly sent to some employees before they were told of their termination. - Bloomberg

• Nike is taking the layoff route again this year, and this means job cuts for less than 1% of its corporate workforce. The company was recently reported to have 77,800 employees, but it remains unclear just how many from this expansive workforce will be affected by the cuts. - The HR Digest

• Intuitive to lay off 331 employees in California

  The robotic surgery company, which filed a WARN notice with the state in August, plans for the layoffs to be effective in late October. - MedTechDive

These are some of the layoffs which were announced in the past week.

Is Europe ok?

German GDP share in the global economy hit near an all-time low of 4.3%. This is down from 8.4% in the 1990s. The German economy's share in world GDP has nearly HALVED over the last 3 decades. - X user Global Markets Investor

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Given the above news surrounding the strongest economies in Europe, will they be ok? Should they end the Ukraine sonnest? What can be done to save them from these?

Let us be aware and consider some hedging if we have exposure to European assets.

My final thoughts

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The Fed usually starts cutting rates before a recession begins. Will this time be different? - X user Peter Berezin

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Core PCE is almost 50% above the target and trending UP. It is criminal malfeasance if the Fed cuts rates without obvious recessionary indicators. - X user Uncle Milty’s Ghost

The historical correlation between Federal Reserve rate cuts and subsequent recessions is a notable trend, but it does not guarantee a similar outcome in the future. While this pattern warrants careful attention, it is not a definitive predictor of a pending recession.

Given the current persistent inflation, a key consideration for the Federal Reserve is whether a rate hike might be a more appropriate measure to combat rising prices. However, such a move must be weighed against other economic factors. A significant portion of U.S. Treasury assets requires refinancing, and a lower interest rate environment would naturally reduce the government's interest expenses.

Conversely, market forces may push bond yields higher. The risk-reward tolerance of both domestic and international investors can lead to increased bond rates in the open market, regardless of the Federal Reserve's actions. This dynamic creates a complex environment for policymakers as they work to balance controlling inflation, managing government debt, and responding to broader market signals.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

This week, we will focus on reviewing our financial position by analysing our expenditures, income, and savings. Our core principles will be to operate within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage.

I am also conducting a review of our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$