To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I’m fully convinced NVDA is rolling into a deeper corrective phase. The harmonic symmetry, gap magnets at $149–$145, and Keltner/Bollinger breakdowns all line up for continuation. Momentum is on the side of the bears short term, and I’m not fighting it. Instead, I’m leaning into tactical setups with both direct NVDA trades and inverse ETF vehicles like NVDQ and NVDS.

📊 Technical Breakdown

I’m seeing NVDA roll right out of its wedge top into a clean descending channel. The structure points toward deeper retests, and the confluence across multiple timeframes tells me the path of least resistance is still lower. The $149 and $145 gaps remain highly magnetic as liquidity zones waiting to be tapped.

🔷 Harmonic Alignment

The harmonic leg projects an A–B–C–D move with symmetry landing near $156.84 (0.618 retrace) and $148.92 (0.50 retrace). This aligns almost perfectly with the unfilled gaps on the daily chart, creating a textbook case where price and structure are married together. When harmonics, gaps, and channeling all align, I pay attention.

📉 Keltner & Bollinger Flow

On the 30-minute frame, NVDA is trapped under the 55EMA and pressing the lower Keltner rails. Each bounce into $176 and $172 was cleanly rejected, and now price is hugging the underside at $164–$166. On the 4H, the volatility bands have expanded and NVDA is riding the lower Bollinger track. This is classic downside momentum until proven otherwise.

📈 Strategic Context

The $149–$145 zone isn’t just about technical magnetism; it’s also where institutional bids are likely to reload. If NVDA wicks into that range, I see it as a high-probability flush and reversal setup. The real test will be whether buyers step in to re-establish accumulation into Q4 or if we grind out a base before resuming the bigger AI megatrend push.

🟢 Stock/Options Setups

• Near-term flush into $156–$149: Sep 19 165P or 160P align cleanly with the downside harmonic targets. Low IV rank (about 7 percent) means debit puts or simple put spreads are cost-effective here.

• Bounce and reaccumulation into Q4: Oct 17 or Nov 21 150C–160C captures a reversal phase. With implied volatility around 34.8 percent, debit call structures favour bulls if $149–$145 holds.

• For structured risk: Nov 21 150C/180C call spread balances upside exposure with controlled premium outlay.

📈 ETF Angle ~ Inverse Leverage

🔹 NVDQ (T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF)

Currently pressing $1.19 after a +5.36% day. On the 4H chart, it’s breaking out above Keltner mid-bands with room to $1.22–$1.25. As a 2X levered play, it offers cleaner torque for traders expecting NVDA’s flush to the $150s.

🔹 NVDS (Tradr 1.5X Short NVIDIA Daily ETF)

Trading at $13.26 after +4.11%. On the 4H, NVDS has reclaimed its Bollinger midline and is extending toward $13.60. This offers lower volatility than NVDQ but still provides amplified downside exposure to NVDA without needing to trade options directly.

⚡ My Preference

I favour NVDQ if I want torque on a quick wick into $149. The 2X leverage compounds nicely when NVDA accelerates. For those who want less decay risk, NVDS provides a steadier, 1.5X short glide. Both are valid setups, but NVDQ carries the sharper edge for momentum traders.

💡 Conclusion

I’m letting NVDA roll into its gaps and using inverse ETFs as tactical vehicles to capture the downside move. Once $149–$145 is tagged, I’ll flip the script and look long for the bigger AI cycle. The key here is to respect both phases: first the flush, then the reaccumulation. These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

👉❓If NVDA flushes into $149–$145 and inverse ETFs like NVDQ keep ripping, do you see that zone as a reload opportunity for the AI megatrend or the start of a larger credibility reset for semis?

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