To The Moon

$Oracle(ORCL)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Following a significant stock rally fueled by its AI-driven cloud momentum, this report will be a major test of the company's ability to execute on its ambitious growth targets.

Revenue: Analysts are projecting total revenue of around $15.01 billion, suggesting a growth of over 12% from the prior-year quarter.

Non-GAAP EPS: The consensus is for a non-GAAP EPS of $1.47, which would represent a 5.8% year-over-year increase.

Summary of Oracle's Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings

Oracle reported a very strong finish to its fiscal year on June 11, 2025, with results that beat analyst expectations and underscored the company's momentum in the cloud and AI space.

Financial Performance: Oracle's total revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to $15.9 billion, exceeding forecasts. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 also beat the consensus.

Cloud Infrastructure: This segment was the star of the show. Cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue surged by an impressive 52% to $3.0 billion, demonstrating robust demand for its data centers from AI and enterprise customers.

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): The company's backlog, or RPO, jumped by a staggering 41% to $138 billion, a record high. This is a crucial indicator of future revenue and shows strong, long-term customer commitments.

The Lesson Learned from the Guidance

The most significant takeaway from the Q4 report was not the past performance, but the company's bold and ambitious guidance for fiscal year 2026. This forward-looking commentary provided a clear lesson for investors:

The lesson is that Oracle is transitioning from a traditional enterprise software company to a full-fledged cloud infrastructure provider with a direct line to the AI boom.

This lesson was driven by two key points from the guidance:

Massive Growth Projections: CEO Safra Catz stated that the company expects its cloud infrastructure revenue to grow "over 70%" in fiscal year 2026, a significant acceleration from the already strong 50% growth in the previous year. This target demonstrates a high degree of confidence in its ability to meet the unprecedented demand from AI companies and other large clients.

Unprecedented Capital Expenditure: To meet this demand, Oracle revealed it would be ramping up its capital expenditure to "over $25 billion" in fiscal 2026. This massive investment signals the company's commitment to building out its data center capacity to fulfill its RPO and secure new, large-scale contracts, such as its partnership with OpenAI. The guidance implicitly tells investors to focus less on short-term profitability and more on the long-term potential of this strategic, capital-intensive pivot.

Key Metrics for Investors to Watch

The focus for this earnings report will be on Oracle's continued progress in its cloud business and, more specifically, its role in the AI infrastructure buildout.

Cloud Infrastructure Revenue: This is the most crucial metric. In the prior quarter, this segment's revenue surged by 52% to $3.0 billion. Oracle's management has set a bold target of over 70% cloud infrastructure growth for the full fiscal year. Investors will be watching closely to see if the company is on track to meet this target, which is essential to justifying its current valuation.

If we looked at Oracle current standings in the cloud infrastructure service providers in Q2 2025, Oracle has only 3% but if Oracle can meet the bold target of over 70% cloud infrastructure growth for the full fiscal year, this might be a possible strong positive signal.

Overall Cloud Revenue: This includes both Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and its applications business. The consensus estimate for total cloud revenue is approximately $12.23 billion. The company's ability to drive growth in both these areas—particularly in its database solutions and cloud enterprise software—is vital for its long-term strategy.

Revenue and EPS: The headline numbers will still drive initial stock reaction.

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): This metric represents the total value of unfulfilled contracts. A rising RPO signals strong future revenue visibility and continued customer commitment. A significant increase in RPO would be a strong indicator of demand for its cloud services, including large-scale AI contracts like its partnership with OpenAI.

If we were to look at the RPO and revenue growth, there was a significant decline in the RPO growth from 63% to 41%. This is one of the metric that investors might look out to see if it can meet or beat the same RPO growth in Q1 2025.

Capital Expenditures: Oracle has been rapidly increasing its data center capacity to meet AI demand, with capital expenditures projected to exceed $25 billion in fiscal 2026. Any update on this number or the company's ability to manage this massive investment will be critical.

Oracle (ORCL) Price Target

Based on 33 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Oracle in the last 3 months. The average price target is $249.01 with a high forecast of $325.00 and a low forecast of $175.00. The average price target represents a 6.97% change from the last price of $232.80.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities

Oracle's stock has a history of volatility around earnings, and the high expectations tied to its AI narrative amplify this potential for a major move.

Potential for a Rally: A significant earnings beat, driven by strong cloud infrastructure growth that is on track to meet or exceed its 70% guidance, could lead to a substantial rally. This would confirm that Oracle is a key player in the AI market, alleviating concerns about its valuation. Positive commentary from management on new large-scale deals and its ability to scale its data centers would also be a major catalyst.

Risk of a Sell-off: Any miss on the key metrics, particularly a slowdown in its cloud infrastructure growth or a conservative outlook, could trigger a sharp sell-off. Given the stock's premium valuation, a disappointment would likely lead to a repricing as the market re-evaluates its growth prospects. Execution risks, such as potential chip shortages or delays in data center buildouts, could also weigh on the stock if mentioned by management.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

ORCL is currently trading below the 12-EMA level and the bulls is trying to gain control though there is positive momentum, but with the AI demand in questions, I think market might be looking at Oracle earnings for clues whether the AI infrastructure demand especially for hyperscaler is still going strong.

So we might see a strong recovery in terms of buying volume, and there might be also a short price surge if Oracle earnings could show a strong revenue and also a good increase in RPO growth.

Summary

Oracle (ORCL) is set to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Following a strong fiscal year-end, the company's valuation is high, and investors will be laser-focused on whether its aggressive growth targets are on track.

The key metric to watch is cloud infrastructure revenue, which management has guided to grow over 70% for the full fiscal year. Any commentary on this target and its ability to scale its data centers will be critical. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of approximately $15.01 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.47.

The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO), or backlog, is a crucial indicator of future revenue. A significant increase would signal strong demand. Given the high expectations, a beat on these metrics and a reaffirmation of its bullish outlook could drive a short-term rally. Conversely, a miss on cloud growth or a conservative forecast would likely lead to a sharp sell-off, as the stock's premium valuation is contingent on its AI-driven growth story.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think ORCL backlog and also its outlook would be significant for the AI demand and this could provide an insights whether the AI infrastructure is still going strong, though ORCL might have a rather small market share.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.