The Gemini Moment
When ChatGPT came out, it took the world by storm. Within two months, the app had 100 million users.
Google seemed to be caught off guard. The big tech company had cash, but could no longer innovate or launch new products.
The default assumption has been that ChatGPT will continue to dominate AI chatbots and become the next big tech innovation. But the normies don’t seem to be as excited about ChatGPT as early adopters. And now $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Gemini has topped the charts on the App Store.
It’s a Gemini Moment!
Data from Similarweb backs up Gemini’s momentum. Power users are still using ChatGPT more, but new downloads favor Gemini.
What if this momentum holds?
What if Gemini’s monthly active users continue to grow faster than ChatGPT?
It’s not only plausible, it’s likely.
I showed the Apple App Store rankings above, and the other ecosystem is Android, which is owned by Alphabet. There’s no reason to think Gemini wouldn’t do even better there.
Then there’s the models themselves. Gemini 2.5 Pro is nearly as good as GPT-5, according to third-party analysis. But Google puts OpenAI to shame when it comes to images and video. If you think the future is chatbots, OpenAI has a shot. But if you think image and video are important, Alphabet takes the top spot by a mile.
Alphabet is one of the top stocks in the Asymmetric Portfolio, so I’m happy to see Gemini doing well. But the bigger story may be about OpenAI, which is holding up the market, despite still being a private non-profit.
OpenAI’s Astronomical Growth Projections
OpenAI’s hype has now spilled into the broader market, and it’s time to pay attention to how it could impact the broader market long-term.
This week, $Oracle(ORCL)$ stock was up 22% and Larry Ellison became the richest person in the world, at least for a moment, because of OpenAI.
Oracle announced a whopping $317.5 billion increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which are supposed to be a measure of backlog. That kind of demand boosted Oracle, but it also means $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and many others in the data center business will have ample demand for years to come as capacity is built out. As many people said this week, AI demand is off the charts!
And there’s a lot of demand, but the details of the demand at Oracle matter.
OpenAI amounted to $300 billion of the $317.5 billion increase in RPO for Oracle.
How did OpenAI, which is expected to have under $20 billion in revenue this year, sign such a big deal? Well, they expect revenue to grow exponentially.
It makes sense that the leading AI company expects explosive growth. But does $200 billion in revenue in 5 years pass the smell test?
For perspective, that’s about what Google makes on search each year.
$200 billion is more than what Meta Platforms, Chevron, General Motors, or JPMorgan Chase generate each year.
$200 billion is also $25 per year from every person on earth.
It’s possible OpenAI can generate that kind of revenue. But it’s also possible they don’t.
And if Gemini is taking share of new users in 2025 as Alphabet pours $85 billion in capex this year and billions more into AI research, there’s a risk that Alphabet’s momentum continues, stunting OpenAI.
If OpenAI’s growth slows or funding gets harder to come by, Oracle, Microsoft, Nebius, CoreWeave, and even NVIDIA may see lower than expected demand. The AI bubble may burst.
The economy could even tank. According to new data, nearly half of GDP growth in the U.S. was driven by AI investment.
Expectations for AI are high, and if OpenAI doesn’t see explosive growth, there will be disappointment elsewhere in the market.
Maybe Ellison was too busy counting his money to hear the news that OpenAI is losing momentum to Google’s Gemini.
For us normies, the news wasn’t all that surprising. ChatGPT is great, but Gemini is catching up, and it’s easier/cheaper to use more advanced features.
Given how much investors have riding on up and to the right AI demand, driven by OpenAI, this seems like a big deal to me!
For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:
🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!
Find out more here：
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
