To The Moon

There’s a reason investing in energy is (usually) boring. The energy industry is usually a relatively slow-moving industry with periodic spikes and crashes in commodity prices, leading to bankruptcies when someone takes a few too many risks. It’s possible to make money in energy, but it’s usually a slow and steady wins the race kind of business. The current environment is telling us “this time is different” as AI changes energy needs around the world. But is it? Euphoria in energy often ends in disaster. I’m seeing a lot of new energy experts these days. Investors who a few months ago were experts on chips are now lecturing about the economics of gas turbines and fuel cells. They cite backlogs measured in years and a new bottleneck to AI’s explosive growth. We’ve seen this before. I’ve see

When I first covered $Alphabet(GOOG)$ in a spotlight article on September 23, 2023, the consensus in the market was that the company was in real trouble. ChatGPT was gaining momentum, Google search was under threat, and even if Google could do something in AI, it may have to kill the golden goose to keep from being disrupted. I usually bet on disruption, but in a lot of ways, my Alphabet pick was going against disruption. And it was because I saw AI being more of a sustaining innovation rather than a disruptive innovation. I used ChatGPT in the early days, but I saw my wife look at me sideways when I talked about AI. Conversations with friends and neighbors never touched on AI. The conversation online wasn’t real life, and I thought owning Google

1. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ $MGM is generating enough free cash flow to buy back ~15% of shares outstanding each year. But there are major tailwinds ahead. 1. Macau gaming revenue is up 14.3% YTD and the COVID recovery is gaining momentum. 2. Online gaming is reaching an inflection point. 3. MGM Japan opens in 2030 and may be the most profitable casino in the world, providing over $1 billion in cash flow to MGM from Day 1. I like the risk/reward. 2. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood's biggest challenge in 2026 is user growth. We know another 400k customers have been added thru February, but growth needs to pick up for the stock to move higher. The long-term growth thesis relies on (1) user growth AND (2)

Somehow, the biggest, most popular companies in the world decided to report earnings in the same 48-hour period this quarter. Between the close of the market on Tuesday and the same period of time on Thursday, we may see what the next year looks like for businesses around the globe. I’ll be following them closely, so I wanted to go over five things I’m looking for that will drive the portfolio. More on that in a moment. 5 Things I’m Watching Here’s what I’m looking at this week. Spotify’s User Growth & Operating Leverage Shares of $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ are down 33% from their high last year, and most of that drop is because the stock’s valuation got a little stretched. Shares currently trade for 34x forward earnings estimates and 26x

Waymo is scaling to city after city, but $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is falling behind, and very few vehicles today have “hands off” capability. Still, the foundation is being laid, and slowly but surely, there will be thousands, then millions, of autonomous vehicles on the road. Today, I want to give you an idea of why I like the positions I have in the industry and explain why, long-term, the aggregator/modular supplier models will win. Tesla’s Full Autonomy Is Delayed…Again We can’t start a discussion of autonomous driving without mentioning Tesla. In January 2025, I shorted Tesla stock via long-term puts, partly on the thesis that Tesla wasn’t going to reach full autonomy anytime soon, despite what Elon Musk said. Much of Tesla’s $1.4 trillion valuat

Markets reward companies that control demand, but risks emerge when customer concentration rises or supply dynamics shift. This is a cross-sector snapshot of how demand ownership, platform dynamics, and industry structure drive outcomes. 1. $Netflix(NFLX)$ I didn't understand Netflix $NFLX 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ulti

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Energy storage is no longer a growth business for Tesla and the next step is margin pressure. This was all completely foreseeable. 1. Tesla had the capacity to take advantage of Biden-era battery subsidies more than any other company. 2. Subsidies bring competitors, but supply takes time to come online. 3. Eventually, added supply puts pressure on pricing, eating margins for everyone. We're between #2 and #3 today. Over the next 2 years, margins will compress further, as energy products always do. Tale as old as time. Related: Tesla is sitting on its highest level of debt and future obligations, including net payables of $11.7 billion, $3.4 billion in unearned revenue (FSD pre-payments), and $31.6 billion in other expenses (wa

Between now and then, we’ll get a few more earnings reports, but early in earnings season, the news seems positive if a little muted. The market is back in positive territory, and the worst potential outcomes of everything from tariffs to Iran have rolled off investors’ backs. The good news for us is that April has once again been a turnaround for the market. More on that in a moment. Weekly Update April has been a rocket ship for the stock market for somewhat questionable reasons. The market was down because of the Iran conflict/war, and as that has moved toward a tentative ceasefire, the “risk on” trade took hold. It wasn’t earnings or great economic data that caused the pop, simply undoing damage that didn’t need to be done in the first place. Call me skeptical that this pop will hold.

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has been one of my highest-conviction stocks for most of the past year, only to see its shares go through the market ringer. But the past few weeks, we’ve gone from market capitulation to euphoria as shares become semi-loved again. Sentiment hasn’t fully flipped, but it’s getting there, and I continue to think this is one of the highest potential stocks in the market. The reason shares are up over the past week is peptides. The FDA officially removed 12 peptides from “Category 2”, which meant they couldn’t be compounded, and scheduled a meeting in July with an advisory panel to discuss whether some of these peptides can be compounded again. This could be a huge deal. I called Peptides a 1,000x opportunity for Hi

An IPO used to be the start of a new era for companies. $Apple(AAPL)$ IPO’d four years after it was founded in 1980 with a $1.8 billion valuation. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ went public in 1986 as a relatively mature 11-year-old company with a $777 million valuation. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ went public three years after it was founded in 1997 with a $438 million valuation. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ went public six years after its founding at a $23 billion valuation. It used to be the case that companies would go public because they needed money on a scale that only public markets could offer. And in some cases it was a way to unlock value for