To The Moon

The market still isn't convinced, but the business is quietly improving. $Zillow(Z)$ just delivered 18% revenue growth, despite one of the weakest U.S. housing markets in years. The real story isn't home sales. It's the ecosystem. Residential revenue: +7% Rentals: +31% Mortgages: +75% Rentals are becoming Zillow's biggest growth engine, while its expanding mortgage business is strengthening customer lock-in. Together, they make the platform more valuable even when housing transactions remain sluggish. Meanwhile, management has announced layoffs, suggesting operating leverage could improve as costs come down. This setup feels familiar. Back in 2023, many investors dismissed $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ . T

Don’t be fooled by the market’s reaction; $Uber(UBER)$ ( ▲ 3.36% ) had an outstanding second quarter. Monthly active customers jumped 16%, trips were up 18%, and gross bookings were up 22%. So, if trips and bookings were so strong, why was revenue only up 12.2% (11% on a constant currency basis)? And is that what the market was disappointed by? Part of the answer lies in a contra-revenue charge in the U.K. that I’ll explain below. What’s more important for long-term investors is the operating profit line, which continues to improve. Or you could look at operating and free cash flow, which are both trending higher. By the way, Uber trades for just 14x free cash flow at this point. And despite all of this improvement in operations, Uber’s stock trad

1. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ User Growth Reaccelerates Daily active users (DAUs) climbed 23% YoY, while monthly active users (MAUs) increased 10%, signaling healthy engagement. Revenue grew 18%, showing the company's user growth continues to translate into sales. Although margins compressed, Duolingo remained free cash flow (FCF) positive, suggesting it is still funding growth while maintaining financial discipline. Overall, the earnings reinforce that the company's long-term growth story remains intact. 2. $Zillow(Z)$ Zillow Expands Beyond Home Sales Revenue increased 18%, with residential revenue up 7%, slightly outperforming the broader housing market. Rentals remained the standout business, posting 31% grow

This is the latest allocation of $500 into a personal portfolio of stocks with 10x potential over the next decade. I’ll allocate from the “Asymmetric Universe” of stocks. Today, that universe has 25 stocks that I’ve covered in spotlight articles, and the universe will grow in time. Not all stocks covered will receive an investment, and allocations may be made to the same stock multiple times. Here are the rules of allocation. Invest $500 in total new capital each month. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is 20% below its all-time high, this allocation will increase to $1,000 monthly. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite is down 30%, I’ll add $1,500, and so on. The Universe of Asymmetric Stoc

What I’m Watching This Week Earnings season is in full swing. It’s a big earnings week ahead, and I’m sending out the August 2026 stock buys before the market opens tomorrow, so I’m going to keep this short. The Week Ahead This week is when things get really interesting in the market. It’s not just big banks and tech, which have mostly done reporting. This week, we get down to high-growth companies that fit in the Asymmetric Investing wheelhouse. Here are five of the stocks I’m looking at. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ : The talk of the market in 2025, Palantir has slipped based on valuation concerns alone. If growth continues at a strong pace the stock could recover, but even a small deceleration or sign that vertically integrated AI compani

No investor has epitomized 2026 like Leopold Aschenbrenner. Through June, his $48 billion (at the time) hedge fund, Situational Awareness, was up 439% after fees, an incredible run by any measure. This morning, Situational Awareness blew up. What happened and what can we learn about leverage, buying dips, and investing today? That’s what I’m going to dig through today. Blowing Up In 2009, I was in MBA school and interned for a hedge fund in the Minneapolis area that did a little bit of everything. There was market making, high-frequency trading, options positions, and even leveraged bets on commodities. It was a whirlwind of a learning experience, and at the end, I sat down with the owner, who had been in hedge funds for ~30 years. We talked for over an hour, but one thing stuck out to me:

One of the most profitable companies in the world went free cash flow negative in the second quarter, and investors are worried. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.34% ) shares are down 20% from their high in May, and there’s good reason to ask some serious questions. No, the market isn’t worried about where Alphabet is going to get the $200+ billion it’ll spend on capex this year or the (maybe) $300 billion it’ll spend next year. There’s a great cash flow business to fund most of that, and debt can fill the rest of the gap. The market is worried that the return on Alphabet’s spending and the spending of every hyperscaler and neocloud will have low or no return at all. ~$1 trillion in spending this year, and even more next year, needs to generate a return. As

From biotech catalysts and consumer brand momentum to EV valuation debates, these three stocks highlight how investors are focusing on very different opportunities—and risks—across today's market. 1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ BPC-157 isn’t a done deal but it’s getting close. This could be another catalyst for $HIMS, the biggest position in the Asymmetric Portfolio. 2. $On Holding AG(ONON)$ I don’t know what these are but I kind of want them. 3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ What multiple would you put on a company growing revenue at 0.5% annually with declining margins? Does 12x sales and 295x earnings sound fair?

If you're wondering why $Alphabet(GOOG)$ is down today, I wrote about exactly this moment a week ago. The market expected a delicate dance from Alphabet that involved a massive increase in capex AND the company remaining free cash flow positive (charts below). We got one (capex growth). Not the other (FCF). If operating cash flow doesn't fund the capex of the biggest, most successful business in the world, the entire AI buildout will be dependent on debt. And that's a very different risk proposition than funding it with cash flows. So, the market takes a "risk off" move even with a company like Alphabet. The next question is who blinks first? Or put another way, who cuts capex spending and gets rewarded by the market? Some manager (maybe Zuck, may

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud results are incredible, but the rest of the revenue was pretty ho-hum. Alphabet going negative FCF seems like a turning point in this buildout. I don't know if it's good or bad, but if they're willing to go into debt to win... I wouldn't want to be a competitor. 82% growth for Google Cloud is crazy, but we have crossed the critical FCF going negative. Seems like something. PS: What are your weaknesses as an investor? Create constraints around them. I am terrible at timing the market when I buy and my biggest mistake is selling a great company early. Solution: 1. Buy once per month 2. Default to "never sell" Keep it simple. Sentiment is correlated with a sto