Travis Hoium

    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·02-03 06:51

      Has a Market Meltdown Begun?

      The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ are within shouting distance of their all-time highs, but it doesn’t feel that way for most investors. The market’s gains have been concentrated in some huge moves in semiconductor and mining-related stocks. On the other side of the market is the decline in stocks like $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ that seem like rock-solid growth companies. I think there are discounts forming in certain areas of the market, although the ride will likel
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      Has a Market Meltdown Begun?
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-31

      NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines

      In 1997, 20% of U.S. households had access to the internet. A dozen years later, owners of iconic newspapers like the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, and many more had filed for bankruptcy. Disruption came quickly for newspapers once publishing online became trivial. Contrast that to streaming, which has taken much longer to disrupt traditional TV and film media. $Netflix(NFLX)$ launched streaming in 2007, and 19 years later, one of the companies that should have been disrupted the most, $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ , is being acquired by Netflix itself for $83 billion. Disruption happens at different speeds in different industries, and there are good reasons why. Different indu
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      NFLX, TSLA, GOOG & OpenAI - Innovation and Disruption Timelines
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-30

      $RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate

      $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Two really bad news items recently related to Rivian. 1. The Trump Administration cancelling DOE loans. Rivian was approved for $6.6B to build Georgia just before Biden left office, but still doesn't have the $$$. Will it ever get it? 2. Rivian's autonomy product was well received, but $General Motors(GM)$ just announced a similar sensor and technology product launching in 2028. GM will have scale in autonomy before Rivian does, so Rivian's in-house development will once again be up against a competitor with more scale over which to spread development costs. If #1 gets cancelled, Rivian is doomed. Even if it doesn't, #2 probably means Rivian won't have much upside in autonomy
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      $RIVN’s $6.6B Question Could Decide Its Fate
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-29

      HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure

      1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Volatility is the price we pay for market-beating returns. We're seeing the downside of that volatility today, but the long-term fundamental trends in revenue and margins are exactly what we want to see. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ These charts are telling. 1. Tesla's operating profit is collapsing. 2. Analysts (and investors) continue to over-estimate the company's revenue growth...which is now negative. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports
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      HIMS stays solid TSLA faces profit pressure
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-28

      When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t

      $General Motors(GM)$ CEO Mary Barra is the best CEO in the auto business. This shouldn’t be a controversial statement. Strategically, operationally, and politically (important these days) she’s knocking it out of the park. Investors in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ should pay attention to this detail. The elimination of regulatory credits is going to be a small tailwind for Detroit given their size, but a HUGE headwind for Tesla and Rivian because it’s 100% margin. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
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      When EV Credits Vanish, GM Holds,Tesla and Rivian Don’t
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-27

      Forests, Trees, and Hims & Hers' Decline

      I’m going to use $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ as a bit of a stand-in for the volatility we often see with growth companies. But the same could be said about $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ $Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$, and many more.When companies are growing quickly, there can be wild variations in a stock price as investors adjust their expectations up or down. Long-term, the ride seems smooth, but short-term, the difference between a few percentage points in growth here and there can seem enormous and cause huge reactions in a stock.$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ has compo
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      Forests, Trees, and Hims & Hers' Decline
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-24

      The Hidden Reasons Autonomous Vehicles Are a 10x Opportunity for Uber and Lyft

      What if a ride were always available within 60 seconds of when you need it? What if that ride was clean, warm, played your music, and cost just $1 per mile? In 2026, we’re moving closer to that reality with autonomous vehicles. Waymo is operating in 6 cities and is quickly increasing its fleet, Zoox has launched fully autonomous vehicles in Las Vegas, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ a’s robotaxis are now operating without a driver (there is a chase vehicle), and companies like WeRide, $Volkswagen AG(VLKAY)$ (via Mobileye), $Baidu(BIDU)$ , and more are planning to remove safety drivers this year. I continue to believe this is one of the biggest opportunities for investors t
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      The Hidden Reasons Autonomous Vehicles Are a 10x Opportunity for Uber and Lyft
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-24

      Disney Is Far From Dead

      16 of the Top 25 grossing films ALL TIME have come from Disney $Walt Disney(DIS)$ (including Spider-Man). 6 of those films were released in the last 5 years! And you thought Disney studios were dead? What studio would you rather own? IMO, portfolio diversification is more about psychology than math. If you own <5 stocks, it's easy to be emotionally attached to them, which clouds your judgment. If you own 20-30 stocks, it reduces emotional dependence and gives a wider view of the investing world. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Acco
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      Disney Is Far From Dead
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-20

      Why Garmin Should Buy Peloton

      Why Garmin Should Buy PelotonExpanding Garmin $Garmin(GRMN)$ 's ecosystem of hardware with fitness content $Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$ makes a lot of sense.Garmin + PelotonOne of the key reasons I think Garmin has asymmetric potential long-term is that it’s a key piece of hardware in tracking health and fitness, with the potential to add incremental recurring revenue streams from connectivity and health & fitness analysis and content.It’s a classic marriage of hardware and software.I think it’s time the company expands more aggressively into the fitness content side by buying a subscription-based business with 2.7 million paying premium members.Peloton Needs ScaleLongtime subscribers will rememb
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      Why Garmin Should Buy Peloton
    • Travis HoiumTravis Hoium
      ·01-17

      It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT

      A year ago, if you wrote something nice about $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , someone would respond with something like, “They’re cooked. Ever heard of ChatGPT?”The sentiment around Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai was about as bad as it could get. He didn’t know how to innovate. Google was terrible at making new products. A “woke” culture couldn’t win in AI (see early Gemini images). Today, Google seems inevitable. And I’m struck by how simple the answer was and continues to be as an investor. Buy Alphabets stock and just hang on for the ride! The History of DisruptionThe negative sentiment around Google was always about disruption. ChatGPT was first to “figure out” the AI chatbot, and that would disrupt
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      It’s Over! Google has beaten OpenAI and ChatGPT
     
     
     
     

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