To The Moon

I'm selling 1 stock and adding 4 new positions to my portfolio this month. The goal remains the same: build a concentrated portfolio of companies with the potential to deliver 10x returns over the next decade. 💰 The Asymmetric Portfolio Strategy Each month, I'll invest $500 in new capital, selecting from my Asymmetric Universe of 25 companies. The allocation rules are straightforward: Monthly investment: $500. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ falls 20% below its all-time high, monthly investment increases to $1,000. If either index falls 30%, monthly investment increases to $1,500, with further increases as the market declines. Any stock in the Asymmetric Universe can be selected. Stocks can

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ ( ▼ 8.82% ) may be the most controversial stock in the Asymmetric Portfolio. Some investors think it’s a disruptive company with 10x+ potential. Others think it’s a parasite on society. Hims & Hers’ Catalysts There’s a story in any stock. A rise. A fall. And with Hims & Hers, the story is ongoing and volatile. I’ll be back with more on the story after earnings early next week, but I thought we should cover some of the latest with the company. The Value I’m going to start with the value, or what we pay as investors. Hims & Hers is in its high growth phase, so we shouldn’t be valuing the company based on earnings or free cash flow. The price-to-sales multiple is the most appropriate, and shares trade n

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 12.3% last week and are down 26.8% over the past six months. Yes, I sold about a third of my Alphabet shares in July based on valuation concerns and the company entering a phase of negative free cash flow. But I didn’t see this reaction coming. I’ve been critical of a lot of the AI stocks out there because I think businesses like neoclouds are unsustainable and commodity suppliers like Micron will… commoditize. But Alphabet is king of the tech mountain and should be fine long-term. Still, the market punished shares because there are signs of disruption. Search isn’t growing the way it was expected to, and that puts the cash flow to fund AI into question. Here are my thoughts on the nuance and realities (both good and bad) at

The market may be nitpicking a few numbers, but zoom out for a second: $Alphabet(GOOG)$ generated $125 billion in quarterly revenue, grew 25% year over year, and expanded margins. That’s an incredible business. 🎯 So why the disappointment? One factor being discussed is the mark-to-market impact tied to $SpaceX(SPCX)$ , which may have affected the reported results. After listening to the entire earnings call, I came away impressed. The underlying business still looks strong, and the growth story remains compelling. 💡 If the market wants to offer a discount on a business like this, I’m paying attention. Sometimes the opportunity comes when investors focus on the noise instead of the fundamentals. Markets ar

$Anthropic(ANT)$ ’s S-1 Is Here! It’s all hands on deck. I had something else prepared for this morning, but when the biggest IPO filing we’ve ever seen hit, it’s time to call an audible. We got official numbers from Anthropic, the fastest-growing company at scale that I’ve ever seen, and a potential $2 trillion IPO within the next month. It’s impressive. It’s scary. And it’s holding up the market. I’ll get to the Anthropic S-1 and what I took from it in a moment. Anthropic’s S-1 If you’ve never seen an S-1, the financial filing a company makes before going public, this is an interesting one. Find the S-1 here. Anthropic is not only a well-known company, but it’s also arguably the most important in the AI buildout. The company has ~$500 billion in

$Anthropic(ANT)$ ’s S-1 appears to confirm roughly 45% Q/Q revenue growth in Q3. The filing also says that from Sep. 2025 to Sep. 2026, TTM revenue grew ~1,200%, while headcount rose ~170%. Revenue per employee jumped from $1.4M to over $6.6M. But the bigger concern may be the obligations section. $ANT has at least $390B in non-cancellable spending commitments over the next decade tied to $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN. The $SPCX deal is also massive, though it reportedly includes exit options. That puts enormous pressure on revenue to keep scaling rapidly. Growth is impressive, but the commitments make execution critical. The market will be watching whether $ANT can grow into those obligations. $Microsoft(MSFT)$

The stock market threw something of a fit on Thursday, and a lot of investors were confused. No big company failed. Demand for AI still looks like it’s off the charts. Why would the AI trade be down so badly if the numbers keep going up? I’ve been laying out my thesis for months (here, here, here, and here, for example) and explained why I’m not getting in front of what may be a steamroller. And that’s worked well of late. The Asymmetric Portfolio is up 1.7% this week thru Thursday, while the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ( ▼ 0.01% ) is down 0.75% and the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ( ▼ 0.52% ) is only up 0.1%. Yes, my positioning with a non-AI portfolio has paid off this week. But let’s be honest, it hasn’t pai

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ It’s easy to have conviction when everything in the AI trade is going up. The real test comes when

When I was growing up in the 1980s, we had a set of Britannica encyclopedias on the bookshelf in the living room. If I had a question about an animal, country, disease, or anything else, that’s where I could go to try to find an answer. Despite being thousands of pages, the explanations weren’t in-depth, weren’t updated, and often what I was looking for wasn’t there. The next step was going to the public library a few blocks away. And I never quite got the hang of searching their catalog system. If you weren’t alive then, it’s hard to explain just how hard it was to find information. Sometime in the late 1980s, we got a computer with MS-DOS. In the early 1990s, that computer could access the internet through a service called Prodigy. Suddenly, you could get the weather 24/7, not just at 5:

Only about $0.05 of every dollar spent on $Uber(UBER)$ ends up as profit or free cash flow for the company. Now imagine an ad-supported version of Uber. What if advertising revenue could subsidize fares, making rides significantly cheaper — or even free in some cases? 👀 Uber already has a massive consumer network and valuable insights into shopping and travel behavior. Advertising could create a higher-margin revenue stream without requiring a proportional increase in rides. The big question is how much of that potential can translate into sustainable free cash flow. A trillion-dollar valuation by 2035 is an ambitious target, but new monetization opportunities could change the math. 🚗 Meanwhile, $General Motor