$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ $The Metals Company(TMC)$ 🇨🇳 China tariffs + 🇺🇸 U.S. strategic stakes; the rare earth trade is heating fast.
Plus: $FITB swung hard today, $DKNG is under pressure, and $ACHR just got rug-pulled.
🚨 RARE EARTHS REVOLUTION: Tariff Shock, China’s Chokehold, and a New AI “Oil” Supercycle? 🔥
🌍 Geopolitical Chokehold
Rare earths are rapidly stepping into the geopolitical spotlight as the new semis. The images tell the story clearly. China mines around 70% of global rare earths, processes 87%, and refines 91%. It also produces 94% of permanent magnets that power EV motors, wind turbines, hyperscale data-centre fans, precision guidance systems, and advanced defence platforms.
🛡 Strategic Stakes for the U.S.
The defence implications are enormous. An F-35 jet contains roughly 418 kg of rare earths, an Arleigh Burke destroyer 2,600 kg, and a Virginia-class submarine around 4,600 kg. Over 70% of U.S. rare earth imports currently come from China, underscoring the vulnerability of supply chains underpinning both AI and national security.
📈 Market Repricing in Real Time
Market behaviour reflects that strategic reality. MP Materials has surged approximately 400% year to date, while Energy Fuels and USA Rare Earth have each climbed more than 100%. The National Security Index image shows a broad surge across the sector: TMC +679.8%, OKLO +593.5%, UAMY +585.0%, TMRC +553.9%, MP +394.3%, IDR +321.2%. This is widespread capital rotation, not a one-off rally.
💼 Positioning for the Supercycle
The underlying structure separates this moment from political noise. China’s dominant role across mining, processing, refining, and magnet manufacturing creates a durable geopolitical risk premium. Tariffs may drive short-term volatility, but the strategic dependency displayed in your charts supports a multi-year theme.
Positioning around this shift doesn’t need to be complicated. Focus on companies tied to mine-to-magnet progress and allied supply growth. Use tariff pullbacks to build positions rather than chase spikes. This is leverage to AI, EVs, renewables, and defence, where permanent magnets quietly sit at the centre.
👉❓Given China’s 70 / 87 / 91 dominance and the 94% magnet production share, does this look like the start of a rare earth supercycle or just a tactical trade into year-end? Which mix would you lean into among $MP, $UUUU, and $USAR based on today’s leadership board?
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- Tui Jude·10-14TOP🌐I’ve been tracking $UUUU and it’s wild seeing how the uranium crowd overlaps with rare earths now. The defence demand data you mentioned is what seals it for me. This is way bigger than a simple commodity rotation.5Report
- Cool Cat Winston·10-14TOP📊This geopolitical angle on $MP hits hard. The 70/87/91/94 dominance really does mirror how semis became critical infrastructure. I like how you tied it to defence usage too, that’s what makes this more than just another tariff trade.6Report
- Hen Solo·10-14TOP🦅The YTD leaderboard is insane. $TMC leading with that kind of performance shows how capital’s already chasing strategic positioning. It’s like watching a new macro theme take shape in real time, not months later.4Report
- PetS·10-14TOPThis feels like 2016 semis all over again. $MP is becoming the anchor play, and the policy backdrop is basically forcing capital to reroute. Your framing of tariffs as a structural catalyst, not noise, is on point.2Report
- Enid Bertha·10-13TOPShocking that one of the auto manufacturers didn’t buy MP when it was $20. MC was like 3-4B then now like 15. They could’ve had a monopoly on the needed EV materials. Be $100 soon.6Report
- Kiwi Tigress·10-14TOPThe way you laid this out makes the rare earth setup feel inevitable. I’m locked in on how the geopolitical chokehold connects straight to market repricing, especially with $MP leading the charge. That’s big picture clarity6Report
- Merle Ted·10-13TOPMP is about to EXPLODE, ladies and germs!6Report
- JimmyHua·10-13TOPNice work and sharing5Report
- Queengirlypops·10-14This is the kind of post that gets me hyped. Seeing $TMC smash the leaderboard while China’s locking up the whole supply chain hits different. Feels like we’re watching the next AI resource wave take off in real time 🧃3Report
- wimpy·10-13This is a compelling analysis1Report
- lzkeet·10-13Great article, would you like to share it?4Report