To The Moon

Even with 50 years of data showing November as the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ strongest month, predicting its performance mid-month in 2025 remains tough.

Despite a strong start, real-time factors like earnings, policy shifts, or global events can still sway the outcome.

History provides insight but does not guarantee.

What History Reveals.

According to insights from charting platform TrendSpider shared in an X post on 01 Nov 2025:

• Over the past 50 years, the month of November has delivered a 73%-win rate and an average return of more than +2%, traditionally setting the tone for a positive year-end stretch. (see below)

This seasonal strength comes as the market trades near record highs and corporate earnings remain broadly resilient.

At the close of Tue, 11 Nov 2025’s session, the index was at 6,846.61, up +0.21%, while year-to-date the S&P 500 has rallied +16.67%. (see below)

S&P 500 Rally Drivers.

Artificial Intelligence.

Notably, artificial intelligence (AI)-linked giants remain at the center of the market narrative, with (a) chipmakers such as $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, (b) cloud platforms, and (c) software firms continuing to command investor attention and drive a disproportionate share of index gains.

Overall, the S&P 500’s narrow leadership has been defined by companies tied to AI infrastructure and applications, helping push valuations higher even as other sectors lag. 

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ - raised 2025 CapEx projection to $91–93 billion. Expects a "significant increase" in CapEx for 2026 as GOOG doubles down on AI infrastructure.

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ - $31.4 billion in capex in Q2 2025, most of it for AI/cloud with capex set to exceed $100 billion for FY 2025, as Amazon scales AWS for advanced AI services.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - has raised its 2025 CapEx forecast to $70–72 billion, with CapEx growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 as META builds out an industry-leading amount of compute for its AI ambitions.

In this line, continued strength from AI bellwethers could extend the rally, though the market may be more vulnerable if enthusiasm in the sector moderates.

Buoyant Quarterly Earnings.

At the same time, major US companies are still exceeding profit expectations at a higher-than-average rate, with margins remaining above their 5-year trend for a 6th consecutive quarter.

Historically, strong year-end rallies are more sustainable when participation widens across sectors.

Market analysts note that lagging areas, such as small-cap equities, may need to join the advance to avoid a pullback led by current leaders.

Notably, this comes as several Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the benchmark, with some projecting that the index could rise as much as 7,000 by the end of 2025, primarily driven by companies in the AI space.

Overall, whether gains broaden or remain concentrated, may determine how durable the rally proves, but for now, historical patterns and current market conditions suggest the bull case retains the upper hand.

My Opinion : (mine only)

Based on Tuesday's closing, the S&P 500 index only needs to go up about +153.39 points or +2.24% only, for it to stay above 7,000. Easily attainable ?

The post (shared above) has clearly spelt out where the AI-led growth will be, namely.

• Chipmaker.

• Cloud platforms.

• Software firms.

If we follow the hints, the 3 no-brainer stocks “safe” to invest will be the obvious - GOOG, MSFT and AMZN.

However, these mega caps are at their all-time high with YTD gains clocking in at +53.04%, +21.53% and +13.11% respectively.

Realistically, how much more do you think the 3 mega caps will rise by the end of 2025 and into 2026?

Clash of the Titans.

Before we forget, the clash between the megacap AI-companies with their deep pockets, ready to spend fortifying their AI-projects and short-seller Michael Burry is still ongoing. (see below)

On 4/5 Nov 2025, it was reported that Michael Burry has made a $1.1 billion short bet against AI-focused tech stocks Nvidia and Palantir.

His skepticism about the current AI boom and warning that these companies’ being overvalued, despite strong revenue growth, has caused US market to pullback in the week of 3-7 Nov 2025..

His argument is — NVDA, PLTR surged in AI Capex could lead to infrastructure glut and stalled growth, echoing dot-com bubble concerns.

Burry's moves have sparked controversy, including backlash from PLTR’s CEO.

More importantly, there is a part-2 to this saga as announced by Burry on “X” - where he said that “more detail” will be coming on Tue, 25 Nov 2025 and readers should “stay tuned”

To find 'fair value' stocks that can grow, investors should look for companies that are:

• Suppliers to megacap companies building out their AI projects eg. AMZN, MSFT or GOOG.

• Lagging software / cloud companies expected to catch up and trading at more reasonable valuations.

For Considerations.

One possible stock that fulfills above criteria will be - $Broadcom(AVGO)$

AVGO’s Value Proposition:

• AVGO is a diversified tech company that is a major designer of custom AI chips for large cloud providers (eg GOOG).

• It is also a key player in the networking & connectivity components vital for stitching together massive AI data centers.

• It offers exposure to the AI theme but is less concentrated than NVIDIA, often trading at a more moderate valuation relative to its growth prospects.

Q3 2025 Earnings Results.

For 2025’s third quarter, AVGO handed in a glowing earnings report.

• Revenue: $15,952 million vs Q3 2024’s $13,072 million, that’s a +22% YoY gain. (see below)

• Earnings per share (non-GAAP) : $1.69 vs Q3 2024’s $1.24, that’s a whooping +36.29% YoY gain. (see below)

• Net income: $4,140 million vs Q3 2024’s -$1,875 million, that’s a +320.8% YoY gain.

• Free cash flow (FCF): $7,024 million vs Q3 2024’s $4,791 million, that’s a +46.61% YoY increase.

Q4 2025 Guidance:

• Revenue guidance : approximately $17,400 million vs Q4 2024’s $14,054 million, that’s a +23.81% YoY gain.

Other Pluses.

Rounding up, below are reasons why AVGO is a compelling investment.

• AVGO is a leading supplier of custom AI accelerator chips (ASICs), networking, and cloud infrastructure chips.

• Analysts have a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" with price targets averaging around $354 - $420 within the next 12 months.

• For 2026, AVGO management forecasts at least $10 billion in AI-related AI chip orders.

• Despite a high P/E ratio of approximately 94, AVGO benefits from niche AI semiconductor dominance, creating a strong competitive moat.

Technical Analysis.

AVGO technical indicators as of Tue, 11 Nov 2025 closing.

Moving Averages.

AVGO’s moving averages for 20-day, 50-day and 200-day are $348.54, 336.22 & $256.39 respectively.

AVGO’s Tuesday closing price of $351.96 sits above the 3 moving averages, clearly suggesing:

• A continual bullish trend in the short term.

• And further supporting sustained upward momentum over the medium term.

• Finally, showing a strong long-term uptrend and indicating solid foundational strength.

Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• AVGO’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 52.87, which is in the neutral to slightly bullish range, indicating the stock is not overbought or oversold, suggesting room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a pullback.

• It suggests room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a pullback.

With a Q3 2025 AI revenue surged 63%, a raised Q4 2025 guidance and a bullish technical momentum, now we know why AVGO is a worthy investment now.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Will NVDA, AMD & ASML start to fade ? Tue, 11 November. Idea post.

• BRK.B - Warren Buffett's Letters on Investing +++ Mon, 10 November. Idea post.

• NVDA, PLTR & AMD Con'td To Free Fall ? Sat, 08 November. Pick post.

• Do you think it makes sense to invest in S&P 500 index, given hthat its heading towards an all time high (ATH) of 7,000 ’?

• Do you think AVGO makes more sense as a choice alternate investment compared to the S&P 500 index ?

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