To The Moon

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$ expected earnings date is Monday, November 17, 2025, after the U.S. market close.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) upcoming fiscal Q3 2025 earnings suggests a continuation of strong revenue and earnings growth, primarily driven by a sustained recovery in the global and Chinese travel markets.

Q3 2025 Earnings Consensus (CNY/USD)

Analyst consensus forecasts, which are key drivers of short-term stock movement, are generally positive for the Q3 period ending September 2025, which covers the peak summer travel season.

Note: The USD EPS consensus varies between $1.04 and $1.15 across sources. The YoY EPS comparison can be skewed by varying share count, non-GAAP adjustments, and fluctuating CNY/USD exchange rates between the reporting periods.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Trip.com Group (TCOM) reported a robust Q2 2025 financial performance for the period ending June 30, 2025, which comfortably beat analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The results underscored the continued recovery and strong execution in both the domestic Chinese and international travel markets.

Key Segment Performance Highlights:

Accommodation Reservation Revenue: Increased by 21% YoY to RMB 6.2 Billion, driven by strong domestic and outbound travel demand during holiday periods.

Transportation Ticketing Revenue: Increased by 11% YoY to RMB 5.4 Billion, maintaining solid growth, though it was flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).

International Business Growth: This was a major highlight, with overall reservations on the company's international OTA platform growing by over 60% YoY.

Inbound Travel to China: Showed exceptional momentum, with bookings surging by over 100% YoY, signaling success from government-led initiatives (like visa-free travel) and Trip.com's focus on this segment.

Outbound Travel: Outbound hotel and air bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels, significantly outpacing the broader market.

Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA saw a 10% YoY increase, supported by continued top-line growth and effective operational management, despite a 17% increase in Sales & Marketing expenses to drive growth.

Lesson Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance and Commentary

The key lesson from Trip.com's guidance and management commentary following the Q2 2025 earnings is the Strategic Importance of Cross-Border Travel and Diversification.

1. The Lesson: Diversification and International Focus is the Primary Growth Engine

While the domestic Chinese market is large and resilient, the commentary made it clear that accelerating growth is coming from the international and cross-border segments.

• Proof Point (Inbound Travel): The massive surge of over 100% in inbound travel bookings proved that favorable government policies (e.g., visa-free travel) combined with Trip.com's platform reach can unlock a powerful new revenue stream.

• Lesson Learned: Investors should value TCOM not just as a Chinese domestic travel player, but as the primary facilitator of China's outbound and inbound travel, which offers higher growth potential than the domestic segment alone.

• Proof Point (Outbound Travel): Outbound booking growth significantly exceeding 2019 levels and outpacing the market suggests that global expansion is fully paying off and TCOM is gaining global market share (via its international brands like Trip.com and Skyscanner).

• Strategic Priority: Management reinforced this focus by stating they will continue to prioritize strategic investments in innovation, partnership development, and inbound travel expansion to stimulate global economic advancement. This suggests a sustained commitment to leveraging technology (like AI-powered trip planners) and partnerships to capture global demand.

2. The Lesson: Profitability is Healthy, but Growth Requires Investment

The quarter's results confirmed that the company can achieve strong growth (+16% Revenue) while maintaining good profitability. However, the increase in Sales and Marketing expenses (up 17% YoY) underscores that capturing the high-growth international and inbound segments requires significant, ongoing investment.

• Lesson Learned: TCOM is in a "Growth at a Reasonable Price" (GARP) stage. Investors should accept that the company will spend heavily on Sales & Marketing and Product Development to secure long-term market leadership, prioritizing future revenue and market share gains over immediate margin expansion.

3. The Lesson: AI and Partnerships are the Future Foundation

Management highlighted specific strategic initiatives, including a focus on AI tools and the plan to target 200,000 hotel partnerships over the next three years.

• Lesson Learned: The future growth story is tied to technological superiority and supply chain expansion. Success will depend on the effective rollout of new tech (like their AI trip planner) and the ability to rapidly expand their inventory network, especially outside of China.

Key Metrics for Investors to Watch

Investors should focus on metrics that indicate the health of the post-pandemic travel recovery and Trip.com's market share against competitors.

1. Revenue Segmentation and Growth

• Accommodation Reservation Revenue: This is a major revenue stream. Strong growth here, especially in outbound and international hotel bookings, signals a healthy expansion beyond the domestic Chinese market and often carries higher margins.

• Transportation Ticketing Revenue: Growth in international air ticket bookings and inbound travel bookings (visitors to China) will show the strength of their global platform strategy and the recovery of cross-border travel.

• Total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): While not always explicitly reported, commentary on GMV provides a clear picture of total transaction volume through the platform.

2. Profitability and Margins

• Non-GAAP Operating Margin: A key measure of operational efficiency. Maintaining or expanding margins is crucial, as it indicates the company is successfully managing costs (like marketing and promotions) while increasing revenue.

• Sales and Marketing Expenses (as % of Revenue): Watch to see if the company is spending more to acquire new users or if user engagement and repeat bookings are keeping customer acquisition costs low.

3. Forward-Looking Guidance

• Q4 2025 Outlook: Management's guidance for the next quarter is often the most significant factor driving post-earnings stock movement. Positive guidance, especially regarding outbound travel momentum and continued international expansion, will reassure investors about long-term growth.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Price Target

Based on 29 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Trip.com Group Sponsored ADR in the last 3 months. The average price target is $82.97 with a high forecast of $97.00 and a low forecast of $71.00. The average price target represents a 11.34% change from the last price of $74.52.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading TCOM post-earnings carries the inherent volatility of a major Chinese tech stock reporting high-growth numbers. Short-term trading opportunities typically hinge on a surprise in the earnings figures or a significant shift in forward guidance.

Potential Bullish Triggers (Long Positions)

Significant Earnings/Revenue Beat: If actual EPS and Revenue substantially exceed the consensus estimates, it may trigger a positive stock reaction.

Strong Q4 Guidance: Forward guidance for Q4 that is materially higher than market expectations, particularly if driven by a clear positive trend in global travel and successful international expansion efforts.

Outbound/Inbound Travel Exceeds Expectations: Exceptional growth rates in cross-border or inbound bookings would signal a successful execution of their global strategy, likely leading to a rally.

Potential Bearish Triggers (Short Positions)

Missed Expectations (Revenue/EPS): A miss on either the top-line (revenue) or bottom-line (EPS) consensus figures.

Weak Guidance: If Q4 guidance is cautious or below analyst estimates, possibly due to increased competition in China (e.g., from rivals like Fliggy or Meituan), or macroeconomic concerns impacting consumer spending.

Margin Compression: A significant drop in the Non-GAAP Operating Margin would suggest that the cost of achieving growth is rising too quickly, pressuring profitability.

The stock currently has a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with an average 12-month price target slightly above the current price. This suggests that the current consensus already prices in a decent, but not extraordinary, Q3 performance. The volatility will therefore likely come from the magnitude of the beat/miss and the outlook for Q4 and 2026.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

After a stellar Q2 performance, investors remains confident for TRIP upcoming Q3 earnings performance, we can see that it is trading on an upside movement with positive RSI momentum, and it is trading above the key short-term level of 26-EMA and 50-EMA, and we could be looking at another earnings beat, but concerns of cost of achieving growth is rising too quickly, pressuring profitability.

So investors might want to focus on what TRIP would provide in the outlook for Q4 and 2026.

Summary

Trip.com Group (TCOM) is expected to report strong fiscal Q3 2025 earnings (period ending September 30, 2025) on Monday, November 17, 2025, driven by the peak summer travel season and continued recovery in cross-border travel.

Consensus Forecast

• Revenue: Expected to be approximately CNY 18.21 Billion (or US$2.54 Billion), representing year-over-year (YoY) growth of roughly +14.7%.

• EPS (Non-GAAP): Consensus is around US$1.04 to US$1.15. While still high, this may represent a slight decline from the previous year's exceptionally strong post-COVID recovery quarter, making the guidance crucial.

Key Metrics to Watch

The market is already pricing in solid domestic performance, so the key focus for investors will be on:

1. International Growth Rates: Specifically, the YoY growth in outbound and inbound bookings (air and hotel) on its international OTA platforms (Trip.com, Skyscanner). Exceptional cross-border growth indicates successful global expansion and higher margins.

2. Operating Margin: Whether the company can maintain or expand its Non-GAAP operating margin despite high marketing spend needed to capture new international market share and fend off domestic competition.

3. Q4 2025 Guidance: Management's outlook on the current quarter (Q4) will be the most significant short-term driver, confirming the sustainability of travel demand heading into 2026.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity

The short-term stock movement will hinge on a surprise—either a significant beat/miss on earnings/revenue or a material change in forward guidance. A strong emphasis on AI-driven efficiency and successful international expansion in management commentary is likely to trigger a bullish reaction.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TRIP could continue to beat earnings estimate though cost of achieving growth might be a concern as it could add pressure to its profitability.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.