Macro Trend Intact: SPY’s Monthly BX Signals More Upside
The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ remains within a confirmed macro bull market based on the Monthly BX trend. 🟢
Historically, when the Monthly BX turns green, roughly 60 percent of cases result in a sustained macro expansion lasting an average of 11 months with a typical upside of about 11 percent, and average winning cycles of roughly 22 percent.
We are only about three months into the current Monthly BX expansion, suggesting ample room remains for additional upside. 🚀
Despite trading near all-time highs, the market’s Monthly BX continues to show strong buying pressure.
The long-term forecast models are currently projecting a move toward 755–800 by mid-2026, a push toward 850 by the end of the year, and an eventual grind up toward 900 going into 2028. None of these projections remain valid if the Monthly BX were to turn red, but until that happens the structural trend remains intact.
Short term, the index has pulled back about 3.7 percent from highs over the past two weeks.
This decline has generated a normal drawdown within the Main Fund primarily on the options side, which is expected given those positions are sized smaller and more volatile.
On the weekly timeframe the BX Trend is red and diverging from price. Price continues to make higher highs while weekly BX makes lower highs. T
his divergence also occurred throughout 2024 during a strong bull run, meaning it is not inherently bearish as long as the Monthly BX holds green.
The Daily Fair Value Band / Bias level around $660 remains the key level. (Image 2)
A break below $660 that holds would likely push SPY back to its Monthly Bias, implying another ~4%decline before resuming upward movement.
Unless that key level breaks and the Monthly BX flips red, the current pullback is viewed as a normal retracement within a larger bullish expansion phase.
Long-term market behavior always includes periods of flat or negative performance, even within bull markets.
The current environment fits well within historical expectations.
I believe we are still in a bull market... for now ✅
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