DELL Slides 8% on MS Downgrade, Testing $110–120 Support

Trend_Radar
2025-11-18

$Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$

$122 Sharp Drop: Morgan Stanley Downgrade Triggers -8.43% Selloff, Support Eyes $110-120 Range》

Latest Close (ET):

DELL closed at $122.48 (-8.43%), marking a significant retreat from recent highs of $168.08, now trading approximately 27% below its 52-week peak in a clear bearish reversal pattern.

Core Market Drivers:

Morgan Stanley's decisive downgrade from "Overweight" to "Underperform" with target slashed from $144 to $110 dominated sentiment;

concerns over AI server demand sustainability and valuation compression overshadowed recent NVIDIA partnership announcements for enterprise AI deployment acceleration.

Technical Analysis:

  • Volume surged to 15.29M shares (2.30x ratio) signaling institutional distribution;

  • RSI likely oversold below 30 after the sharp decline;

  • MACD showing bearish momentum with negative divergence as selling pressure intensifies across all timeframes.

Key Price Levels:

  • Primary Support: $110-120 range — Morgan Stanley's new target zone represents critical floor

  • Secondary Support: $105-108 — 52-week low vicinity at $66.25 provides ultimate backstop

  • Resistance Cluster: $133-140 — Previous support turned resistance; reclaim needed for trend reversal

Valuation Perspective:

Current P/E TTM of 17.83x remains reasonable vs. S&P 500's ~23x, but Forward P/E of 14.02x suggests growth deceleration concerns; AI premium narrative faces scrutiny amid competitive pressures.

Analyst Targets:

23 institutions maintain $159.72 average target (range: $110-186), but Morgan Stanley's aggressive cut signals potential for further downgrades; 6 Strong Buy vs. 1 Underperform rating distribution may shift bearish.

Week Ahead Outlook:

Expect continued volatility within $110-135 range as market digests downgrade impact; break below $110 could trigger cascade toward $100-105; recovery above $135 needed to restore near-term bullish structure and target $145-150 retest.

Risk Disclaimer:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. DELL remains subject to AI demand cycles, enterprise spending patterns, and broader tech sector rotation risks. Please invest cautiously.

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Comment（1）

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  • shihlonchen
    ·2025-11-19
    過去兩次記憶體大漲週期，結果顯示pc電腦廠商毛利僅受小幅影響，其中第二次疫情期間則完全沒有影響，另外對於伺服器業務，ODM與代工廠不負責原料採購（由客戶指定），或是在成本上加上利潤代工，毛利率普遍不高，所以基本上會完全轉嫁下游，比較痛苦的反爾是CSP廠商。結果大摩的敘事完全反過來，資金轉往CSP卻砍ODM，完全沒有回顧歷史狀況。
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