To The Moon

$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Target(TGT)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m extremely confident Walmart has entered a structural rerating phase. Walmart $WMT moving from NYSE to NasdaqExchange is the largest departure the exchange has ever faced. The timing is perfect. High margin digital engines are accelerating, eCommerce expanded 27 percent globally with the United States at 28 percent, advertising surged 53 percent including VIZIO, and Walmart Connect rose 33 percent. The stock delivered its strongest earnings reaction since August 2024 with a clean break back above the 50 MA and clear space toward the $109 zone. Full year guidance was raised across revenue, operating income, and EPS. This looks and behaves like the start of a multi-year margin transformation.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Revenue reached $179.5B versus $177.4B expected and EPS printed $0.62 versus $0.60. Net income was $6.14B. Adjusted operating income rose 8 percent in constant currency despite the $700M PhonePe compensation charge that clipped reported figures. Walmart US grew net sales 5.1 percent and comp sales 4.5 percent with eCommerce adding roughly 440 bps. International sales rose 10.8 percent and over 11 percent in constant currency with China, Walmex and Flipkart leading. Sam’s Club delivered 3.8 percent comp growth. Membership income climbed 16.7 percent. Store fulfilled delivery expanded nearly 70 percent and now reaches 95 percent of US households. Guidance was raised to FY26 revenue growth of 4.8 to 5.1 percent, operating income growth of 4.8 to 5.5 percent, and EPS of $2.58 to $2.63.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds and Execution Risk

Cost inflation will flow through pricing and General Merchandise remains softer than grocery and health. Flipkart’s Big Billion Days shift into Q4 will create a tough compare. FX pressure and tariff uncertainty for 2026 are embedded in guidance. These are manageable risks inside a strengthening digital mix and improving operating leverage.

🧠 Analyst and Institutional Sentiment

Coverage has turned notably more constructive after the beat and raised outlook. The Nasdaq listing signals a technology forward identity and opens the door to fresh capital flows. $AMZN has just officially passed $WMT as the biggest company in the world, which increases the visibility of Walmart’s contrasting value centric and omnichannel model at a moment when share gains across income cohorts are accelerating.

📉📈 Technical Setup

Walmart bounced cleanly off the lower Keltner band and reclaimed the 13 EMA, 21 EMA, 55 EMA, Bollinger mid band and the 50 MA in one decisive earnings surge. RSI pushed firmly higher and MACD is curling positive on the 4H and daily. Volume expanded sharply and the chart now shows constructive support at $101 and $103.20 with price stabilising above $105.50. Resistance sits at $108.50 with room toward $109. Further stretch sits near $112.50 if momentum holds.

📉📈 Options and Flow Sentiment

Post earnings flow showed mainly protective positioning. Unusual Whales flagged a 3,534 contract block in the WMT $90 put for 26 December 2025 with about $293K in premium. BlackBoxStocks recorded roughly $2.85M in 105P sweeps for 20 March 2026 with IV steady near 26 to 27%. The hedging tone and controlled volatility support the bullish structure and help stabilise price action.

🌍 Macro and Peer Context

Walmart is capturing share across all income groups during a period of selective spending. International operations remain a strong growth vector with consistent double digit constant currency performance from markets such as China, Walmex and Flipkart. Delivery speed has become a differentiator with nearly nationwide availability of under three hour fulfilment, a capability that strengthens value perception and increases repeat purchase behaviour. The company has also intensified its AI strategy. Walmart is in talks to acquire R&A Data, an Israeli founded marketplace integrity startup that uses AI to detect scams, counterfeits and compliance issues and has supported Walmart’s rapidly expanding third party marketplace since 2024. The marketplace grew 25% in the United States last quarter and AI integration strengthens quality control as scale increases. Walmart also announced a new partnership with OpenAI that will bring shopping directly into ChatGPT. Customers will be able to buy Walmart and Sam’s Club products inside the application with a fall launch targeted. Existing Walmart accounts will auto link and third party sellers will be included. These initiatives reinforce Walmart’s shift toward technology driven retail and strengthen the strategic logic behind the Nasdaq migration at a moment when retail, digital services and AI are converging. In this environment Walmart’s value positioning and omnichannel infrastructure remain difficult for pure eCommerce or discretionary focused peers to replicate at scale.

📊 Valuation and Capital Health

Free cash flow is strong, the balance sheet is solid, and capital returns remain consistent. The earnings mix is shifting toward higher margin digital lines which supports a premium multiple relative to traditional retail benchmarks.

⚖️ Verdict and Trade Plan

I am bullish. A pullback toward $103.50 to $105.00 offers a favourable swing entry with a stop under $100.80. Base target sits at $109 with stretch potential toward $112.50. The Nasdaq listing and holiday season catalysts strengthen the setup.

🏁 Conclusion

This is not a brief bounce. It is the foundation of a margin and identity rerating where operational execution and digital scale are converging at exactly the right moment.

📌 Key Takeaways

 Revenue $179.5B vs $177.4B, EPS $0.62 vs $0.60, clean beats across core metrics

• eCommerce +27% globally and +28% in the United States, advertising +53%, Walmart Connect +33%

• Membership income +16.7%, store fulfilled delivery nearly +70% and reaching 95% of US households

• Strongest earnings reaction since August 2024 with a full reclaim of major EMAs and the 50 MA

• Support at $101 and $103.20 with targets at $109 and $112.50 based on resistance structure

• International constant currency growth over 11% with China, Walmex and Flipkart outperforming

• Largest NYSE to Nasdaq departure in history as Walmart strengthens its technology positioning

• Walmart’s US marketplace grew 25% last quarter and AI enhancements support quality control at scale

• New OpenAI partnership will enable direct shopping in ChatGPT with existing accounts auto linked

• Raised FY26 guidance for revenue, operating income and EPS

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