To The Moon

🌋 1. Why Lithium Is Suddenly Booming Again

① EV demand stabilising — finally

After two years of “EV slowdown” headlines, real demand numbers from China and the U.S. turned out… not bad at all. EV penetration didn’t collapse; it plateaued, then resumed growth at a healthier pace.

🚗⚡ Consumers are still buying — just more realistically.

② Supply cuts from Australian miners

Core Lithium, Pilbara, and others started cutting production and delaying expansions.

Supply discipline = higher floor for carbonate prices.

③ China restocking cycle

Chinese cathode producers had extremely low inventory after the price crash.

When restocking started, futures spiked like wildfire.

🔥 Futures move FIRST, then spot follows.

④ Market realised prices can’t fall below cost forever

At one point, lithium carbonate was trading below the marginal cost of many producers.

This simply wasn’t sustainable.

Prices had to mean-revert — and they did.

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🔮 2. Will Lithium Carbonate Prices Continue Rising?

Here’s the smart part:

Lithium has already found its cyclical bottom.

But can it keep climbing?

Answer: Yes… but not in a straight line.

Bullish Factors 👍

• Structural EV demand is NOT dead

• No new major lithium supply coming online quickly

• China’s restocking cycle is not finished

• U.S. IRA policies still support local production

• Higher battery adoption in energy storage

Bearish Factors 👎

• Supply ramp from Argentina & Africa in late 2025–2026

• Weak EU EV sales

• Lithium futures may be running ahead of fundamentals

• Funds piling in = volatility risk

My Base Case:

Lithium carbonate likely grinds higher for another 3–9 months.

After that, volatility returns as new supply challenges the rally.

If you’re in miners → the worst is over.

If you’re late → you’re no longer early, but the runway isn’t gone either.

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📅 3. How Long Can This Bull Market Last?

Lithium markets are cyclical.

Typically:

• Bear markets last 18–30 months

• Bull markets last 12–24 months

We just finished a 2-year crash (2022–2024).

We are now in the early stage of a new cycle.

⏳ This bull cycle can realistically last until late 2025 or early 2026, barring a major demand shock.

It’s not a 1-month pump — it’s a multiquarter recovery.

BUT — the sharpest gains in miners are usually in the opening phase, which is exactly what we’re seeing now.

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🎯 4. Did You “Call the Reversal” Correctly?

If you believed:

• Lithium was oversold

• Miners were trading below book value

• Chinese restocking would come

• The EV apocalypse was exaggerated

Then yes —

you nailed the reversal like a pro trader 💥👏

This wasn’t luck.

This was the classic setup:

“Max pessimism → supply cuts → inventory rebuild → price spike.”

Anyone who recognised that structure walked straight into a 50–200% rally.

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🏆 Final Take (Smart + Memorable)

Lithium is no longer in a funeral.

It’s in recovery mode — limping at first, sprinting now, and with enough energy to keep going a while longer.

Just don’t expect a straight line.

Expect waves, not waterfalls. 🌊

But one thing’s clear:

The lithium winter is over.

The lithium spring has begun. 🌱⚡

What's your take homies 😉