To The Moon

Black Friday Showdown! Which Retail Stocks Stand Out This Earnings Season?

Aside from $Costco(COST)$  , $Nike(NKE)$  , and $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$  , most consumer goods companies have already reported their Q3 2025 results. As this year's Black Friday approaches, U.S. consumer companies' earnings reports are showing a K-shaped divergence.

Retail

In this earnings season, retailers that beat expectations include $Walmart (WMT.US)$ and off-price players $TJX Companies (TJX.US)$ and $Ross Stores (ROST.US)$. Walmart continues to lead consumer stocks thanks to its absolute low-price advantage, broad product portfolio, and rising online sales penetration. By contrast, $Target (TGT.US)$ —seen as a barometer of middle-class spending—and The $Home Depot (HD.US)$ , which is affected by the housing market, both came in below expectations.

Apparel

$Ralph Lauren (RL.US)$ , which has been shifting from traditional menswear toward a women's “old-money” aesthetic, is up more than 60% this year, with Europe and Asia-Pacific posting double-digit growth. $Amer Sports (AS.US)$ , parent of Salomon, is benefiting from strong demand in outdoor categories, while Arc'teryx's global expansion and direct-to-consumer model are lifting profits. In contrast, $Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US)$ , parent of Hoka, missed expectations. Even with Hoka’s high gross margins, intensifying competition in trail running has slowed its growth.

Restaurants

The standout in restaurants was $Restaurant Brands International (QSR.US)$ , parent of Burger King, which delivered faster growth driven by Popeyes' store expansion.

Conversely, $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ is under significant pressure. China is Starbucks' second-largest market and has been a major investment focus, but local competitors such as Luckin Coffee—founded eight years ago—have captured substantial market share. Drought in major coffee-growing regions has led to supply shortages, pushing prices sharply higher.

$Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US)$ also saw a slowdown; the company warned that accelerating food inflation from beef and tariffs will squeeze margins, but it plans to avoid fully passing costs through via price increases.

Beauty

$Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$ , an investment linked to Buffett, has yet to report, while $e.l.f. Beauty (ELF.US)$ , which reported earlier, missed expectations. e.l.f. sources most of its cosmetics from China, and its profitability has been hit hard by Trump's new tariff policy.

Across the consumer sector, companies that beat expectations share common traits: either a pronounced price/value advantage or inherently high gross margins. As a result, the market is bifurcating in two distinct directions, while mid-market brands caught in the middle—especially those whose product costs are vulnerable to tariff shocks—are more prone to contraction.

@TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @TigerWire  @Daily_Discussion  @Tiger_chat  @Tiger_comments  @MillionaireTiger