To The Moon

🎅📉 November Let Us Down… But December Might Still Save the Year

Here’s my honest take as we head into the final stretch.

November has always had a mythology in markets — the “quiet giant” that often sets the tone for year-end.

But this year?

It came in soft, underwhelmed, and left most traders scratching their heads.

Even so… I’m actually not disappointed with how my November ended.

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📊 How My November Really Went

Despite Nasdaq sinking about 2%, my own month held up surprisingly well.

I didn’t crush it — but I also didn’t get dragged down by the correction.

• My long-term positions (AI, semis, U.S. defensives) cushioned the dip.

• A few short-term trades did take hits — but nothing catastrophic.

• And funnily enough, the pullback created better entry points than I expected.

November wasn’t a month of losses for me —

it was a month of resetting expectations and repositioning for December.

If anything, I saw it as the market taking a breather after a powerful YTD run.

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🎄 Do I Still Believe in a Santa Rally? Absolutely.

The historical pattern is almost comically bullish:

🎯 When the S&P 500 is already up 10%+ Jan–Oct,

❌ and November goes negative,

✨ December has never closed red — not once.

Average December gain?

➡️ +4%

Average max loss during the month?

➡️ 0.7%

Max drawdown?

➡️ 1.7%

This is the kind of setup where markets often do their best work when everyone’s mood feels the weakest.

And honestly… the macro story supports it:

• Inflation continues to cool

• Liquidity conditions are improving

• Corporate earnings remain stronger than feared

• AI capex is still accelerating

• Rate cut expectations for 2025 provide a cushion

Put all of that together, and December isn’t just a “maybe.”

It’s shaping up to be one of the most statistically favourable months of the entire year.

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📈 Where My Annual Goal Stands Now

I’ll be real — I’m slightly behind my target.

Not dramatically, but enough that I feel it.

Still, I’m not stressed.

December has always been the month where portfolios can make their entire year.

With the historical tailwind we’re heading into, a solid high-single-digit month would close the gap for me completely.

And the best part?

The setup doesn’t require hero moves —

just disciplined positioning and letting seasonality + momentum do the heavy lifting.

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🤝 Final Thoughts — And a Bit of Positivity

November may have failed us, but it didn’t break the trend.

It reminded me of something important:

📌 A weak November is not the end — sometimes it’s the setup.

📌 Momentum can pause without being lost.

📌 And seasonality can turn a frustrating year into a rewarding one — fast.

So yes —

I’m still optimistic, still positioned, and still looking forward to a possible Santa Rally. 🎅📈

Whether you’re up, down, or stuck flat this month…

December gives everyone a clean slate.

Let’s see if the market decides to gift us one more surprise before the year wraps. 🎁✨

🎄 Here’s to hoping Santa hasn’t forgotten us.