To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 🔥🚗📈 $TSLA Black Friday Gamma Flip, FSD v14 Surge, and a Full Momentum Reset Across Structure 📈🚗🔥

I see $TSLA sending a much louder message than a casual holiday tape. On this short Black Friday session $TSLA is up more than 3%, a move that more than doubles its historical Black Friday average of around +1.4% since the 2010 IPO, versus roughly 2.4% on a typical trading day. Across the last fifteen Black Fridays the split sits at eight gains and seven losses, so today already stands out. What matters most to me is not the seasonality. It is the structural response inside the chart, the liquidity defence in the low $400s, and the way autonomy catalysts are starting to reprice optionality. YTD performance sits around +7%, with roughly +29% y/y, and the market is quietly re-rating the entire momentum framework.

I have tracked this setup since Wednesday morning because $TSLA rarely stabilises this cleanly after a two week corrective unwind. The combination of technical reset, strengthening autonomy cadence, and favourable gamma positioning is exactly the kind of regime that has preceded Tesla’s larger trend legs in the past. Today looks like accumulation, not holiday drift.

🚗 Daily Structure and Technical Read

On the daily chart I see a meaningful improvement in structure. Wednesday opened with a gap above my medium term moving average and price has defended that level with precision. Today $TSLA closed right on my short term moving average for the first time since 10Nov25. Reclaiming and holding this short term band is the next formal step in completing the recovery phase from the recent pullback.

Diamond Momentum has shifted into the Charged zone and there is no hesitation in the oscillator. The swing up from the Recharge band earlier in the month marked the start of an internal power rebuild. The current configuration is consistent with the early stages of a momentum expansion for $TSLA.

RSI at 51.27 confirms a move back into neutral positive territory. $TSLA has left the momentum bleed and entered an expansion ready regime. Historically this is where Tesla begins to build multi week directional legs rather than chopping sideways.

The daily MACD is approaching a bullish cross. The histogram has already punched through the zero line and both signal lines are curling up from the deepest negative print since early October. If $TSLA can hold above the short term moving average into Monday, that cross should complete and will formally mark the end of the corrective phase.

The gap fill zone in the low $400s has held with conviction. Liquidity respected that structure twice and the quality of the response points to institutional orders rather than retail reflex. I treat that defence as a structural pivot for this current leg.

📊 4H Trend Map and Momentum Landscape

The 4H envelopes show $TSLA transitioning from contraction back into expansion. Across the past fortnight price slid down the lower Keltner and Bollinger rails. This week it has re-entered the mid bands, with candles now closing inside the pink and grey envelopes instead of tagging the extremes. That change in volatility behaviour is often the first visual sign that trend energy is reloading rather than decaying.

My 13, 21 and 55 EMAs are no longer cascading lower. They are flattening and beginning to bend. When I pair that with the daily MACD reversal, I read it as the first page of a new trend map forming under the surface rather than a continuation of the old down leg.

The liquidity pocket between $410 and $430 has now been fully reclaimed and $TSLA is trading comfortably above the centre of that band. That reduces the probability of a swift retest and tilts the odds toward continuation. A clean break through $432 to $436 next week opens the path toward the larger resistance zone around $455.

⚡ Flow, Gamma and Dark Pool Positioning

Flow today carried the signature of a gamma flip on a short session. As $TSLA pushed above key call walls, dealer hedging behaviour shifted. Instead of leaning into short volatility, dealers were forced to chase price higher, which amplified the move even though headline volume looked modest. That is the kind of environment where a 3% day can be the start of something larger rather than an isolated spike.

Dark pool prints have climbed sharply in the $415 to $425 zone across the past week, with estimates of a 15 to 20% lift in off exchange volume. That aligns cleanly with the visible liquidity defence on the chart. The rebound from the gap fill coincided with concentrated block activity, and the last two sessions have seen regular prints near session highs. To me that is classic groundwork for a more durable rotation, not a fleeting bounce.

🧠 Autonomy, FSD v14, and the New Optionality Curve

The autonomy side of the story is where I see the most underappreciated upside. While the chart resets, Tesla has started to deliver tangible FSD and robotaxi progress that directly feeds into future earnings power.

FSD (Supervised) v14.2.1 began wide release on 27Nov25. It now covers Cybertruck, integrates improved emergency vehicle detection, and applies more adaptive speed profiling. Hardware 4 vehicles in North America are receiving a 30 day free FSD trial, which is perfectly timed with holiday travel patterns. Early commentary across the X ecosystem suggests a meaningful reduction in intervention rates, with some estimates in the 15 to 20% range. Lower interventions accelerate the learning loop and support higher perceived value for paid subscriptions.

Elon Musk has also confirmed that the Austin robotaxi fleet will double in December. That signals near term unsupervised capability inside geo fenced zones and reduces practical regulatory barriers in one of Tesla’s most important test markets. It sends a strong message that robotaxi is moving from abstract roadmap to operational reality.

The regulatory backdrop is evolving in a way that favours long term expansion. Dutch authorities have committed to national FSD approval by February 2026. Australia and New Zealand have already allowed supervised FSD deployments. Broader EU regulators are still pushing for more safety data, and China remains in a review phase, but the overall direction of travel is positive rather than restrictive.

Institutional alignment around this autonomy pivot was reinforced on 06Nov25 when shareholders ratified Elon Musk’s substantial performance based compensation package, often framed around the trillion dollar mark. That decision signalled shareholder confidence in the long term AI and autonomy roadmap. In Q3 Tesla delivered around $4.2B in net income despite a single digit percentage dip in vehicle deliveries, and management highlighted software and services as the next major growth engine. That shift in mix is crucial because software margins can absorb cyclical EV demand softness.

Tesla’s AI and robotics stack is also deepening its moat. Engineering samples of the in house AI5 chip are expected in 2026, with AI6 already on the drawing board. Dojo processed on the order of 1.8 exaFLOPS in Q3, providing Tesla with dedicated training capacity that does not depend on external GPU supply. Optimus is progressing through factory pilots with the potential to reduce certain labour cost buckets by up to 30% over time. All of this supports the idea that Tesla is evolving into a software and robotics platform with a very different earnings curve to a traditional automaker.

📈 Momentum, Regime Shift and What Comes Next

When I put this all together, I see $TSLA transitioning from a contraction regime into a progression regime where momentum is prepared to expand. Short term conditions are now constructive. Medium term structure is in the process of resetting. Long term structure has remained intact throughout.

The levels that matter to me are clear. Holding the gap above the low $400s keeps the recovery thesis alive. A sustained close above $432 to $436 would confirm that the two week correction has been fully neutralised and would reinforce the idea that today’s >3% Black Friday move is the start of a new leg rather than just a seasonal anomaly. From there, the $455 region becomes the next serious test.

The key point is that the chart is now aligned with a strengthening autonomy and AI narrative. FSD v14 rollout, Austin robotaxi expansion, shareholder alignment around long term AI incentives, and the hardware and robotics roadmap all sit underneath a price structure that has stopped bleeding and is beginning to turn up. I view this as the beginning of a recovery sequence with upside continuation potential into December as liquidity returns after the holiday window.

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