To The Moon

$GameStop(GME)$ $Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ 

🧭 Earnings Preview: What I’m Pricing In For 02Dec25

Retail chatter is heating up as GameStop $GME heads into Q3 results after the close on Monday, 12/8. I’m framing this print with numbers first. Street expectations sit around EPS of $0.20 versus $0.06 last year and revenue near $987M which implies about +15% YoY.

Across the last two reports the stock booked next day gains of roughly +3.3% and +7.6%, and the average next day move has been ±8.2%. The current options board is pricing a larger ±12.6% swing into this event, so implied volatility is signalling a bigger information shock than usual. On top of that GME has already gained more than 7% this week, with premarket strength adding another leg higher. That combination tells me traders are front running more than a routine retail update, especially with Michael Burry back in the narrative.

🎯 Why Strong Reports Haven’t Delivered Sustained Moves

I review every earnings cycle as a sequence. GameStop has delivered strong quarters that did not convert into lasting trends because narrative scepticism kept fading pops. Q2 was a clear example: EPS beat by more than 300%, net income flipped positive and collectibles accelerated, yet macro jitters and legacy software worries capped the move. The lesson for me is simple. The market is no longer impressed by isolated beats. It wants a joined up roadmap.

📌 Q2: The Foundation I’m Building On

• Adjusted EPS: $0.17, a clear pivot from loss to profit

• Net income: $44.8M versus a $32M loss last year

• Net sales: $972M, solid YoY growth

• Collectibles up sharply, showing mix shift momentum

• Operating leverage driven by tighter SG&A

• Cash: $6.4B, zero long term debt

• 4,710 BTC worth roughly $516.6M at recent prices

• Warrant dividend that expands funding flexibility

This is the quarter that pushed GME out of distressed territory and into cash rich, optionality heavy status.

🧩 Burry’s Structural Shadow

I anchor my thesis in the governance work Burry already did. His 2019 letter attacked director pay, capital destruction and board complacency. Your documents confirm that by 2020 three long tenured directors he targeted were resigning, the board was being reshaped and a new chair plus independent operators were stepping in. He won structural change without a formal proxy war.

Now he has publicly said he is preparing to “tell the whole GME story.” When the person who forced the original reform cycle reappears during an earnings window, institutions pay attention. For me this is narrative fuel layered on top of balance sheet strength.

🛠 Forward Guidance: What I Need To Hear

I’m listening for:

• Full year revenue and margin expectations rather than vague language

• How they see collectibles and digital mix evolving versus shrinking software

• Clear capital allocation plans for the cash pile

• The role of BTC in treasury strategy

• How the warrant structure fits their long term funding roadmap

• Any concrete commentary on store automation and marketplace scaling

If they link these elements, valuation models will have to move.

🌍 Macro And Risk Map

The macro backdrop is constructive enough for high beta. Rates look stable, liquidity is not hostile and gaming remains one of the stickier discretionary categories. BTC strength adds an extra torque layer to GME’s already unusual balance sheet.

Risks still matter. Tariffs and FX can pressure hardware margins, crypto volatility can mark to market the treasury, and any consumer softening in lower income cohorts could weigh on physical store traffic. Execution missteps on reconfiguration would also erode the benefit of the cash war chest.

📊 Analyst Targets And Valuation Dispersion

Analyst coverage is sparse which keeps dispersion wide. Consensus sits in the mid teens with the high case in the $20s, leaving a gap between conservative models and what a fully utilised balance sheet could support. I treat that dispersion as opportunity. Thin coverage plus strong optionality is the kind of mispricing that flow and catalysts can exploit quickly.

📉 Short Interest And Convexity

Short interest around 16 to 17% of float with days to cover in the low double digits gives GME embedded convexity. I am not trading it as a pure squeeze thesis, but I respect the leverage. A clean beat, credible guidance or a powerful Burry narrative will force some shorts to adjust.

📈 Technical Structure: Reversal Confirmed

On the chart I see a completed transition.

• Multi week downtrend broken on the 4H

• Bullish EMA crosses on 30m and 4H with price back above the 55 EMA

• Keltner and Bollinger channels have moved from compression to expansion

• RSI building strength without blow off

Key levels for me:

Support: $21.30 then $20.80

Resistance: $23.00, $24.60, then the 50 DMA higher up

A decisive break and hold above $23 would confirm that the new regime is accepted.

🔥 Options Flow: Where Conviction Shows Up

The options tape is the loudest signal on my screens.

• The GME 23C 26Dec25 contract carries about $1.18M of premium

• Early session saw a $92.4K block, $94.8K sweep, $120K sweep and $74.8K sweep between 09:47 and 09:49

• Those four prints alone total $319K of focused buying at the same strike and expiry

• Net bullish premium for the day is around $262K

• Further out, a $254K buyer stepped into the 28C 17Apr26 calls, layering a medium term view over the near term catalyst

This is structured positioning, not random lottery ticket flow. It lines up almost perfectly with the volatility implied by that ±12.6% move.

🛒 Trade Anything Day: The Pre Earnings Traffic Catalyst

“Trade Anything Day” is a smart tactical move. Almost any item within size constraints earns $5 credit. It leans into the collectibles heavy strategy and pulls attention into stores between 6 and 9 December. For a name where momentum and narrative feed each other, that kind of campaign matters. If management quantifies the impact in Q4 commentary, it can reinforce the shift away from tired brick and mortar narratives.

🧭 Watchlist Into And After Earnings

I’m watching:

• Price action at $23 as the first decision level

• OI and volume in 23C and 25C across December and January

• Guidance around cash deployment and BTC

• Any detail on warrant exercises and capital structure

• Traffic data or commentary tied to Trade Anything Day

• Short covering footprints in the $22 to $24 band

💡 Final Summary

I own this setup because the convergence is rare. There is a cash rich balance sheet, a BTC torque layer, a flexible warrant structure, an improving operating base, clear technical reversal, concentrated call flow, a viral in store catalyst and the renewed presence of the activist who reshaped the board years ago.

If management ties those threads into a coherent roadmap and Burry’s upcoming piece reframes the story, the market will have to move beyond the meme label. The downside is visible and funded. The upside, if catalysts chain together, is where the asymmetry sits. I’m prepared to stay nimble, but I see more opportunity than risk at these levels.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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