To The Moon

Oracle's $Oracle(ORCL)$   latest earnings were definitely disappointing, and the market reaction makes sense to me. When both total revenue and cloud revenue come in below expectations, it signals that the company's growth engine isn't firing as strongly as investors were hoping—especially in a period where hyperscalers and AI-driven cloud demand are supposed to be accelerating. The revenue miss alone would've been enough to pressure the stock, but the rest of the report added even more uncertainty.

What really stood out to me was the -$10 billion in free cash flow. That's not a small deviation—it's a major swing that raises questions about underlying cash-generation strength. I understand that Oracle is in a heavy investment cycle, especially as it tries to scale infrastructure to compete in AI workloads. But negative FCF at this magnitude makes the story feel riskier, and it forces investors like me to reassess how long it will take for these investments to translate into meaningful returns.

The other big shock was the additional $15 billion in capex guidance. On one hand, I get why Oracle is doing this—they don't want to fall behind Amazon $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  , Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$  , or even Google $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  when it comes to AI-ready data center capacity. On the other hand, layering more capex onto an already cash-tight quarter amplifies the leverage concerns and puts more pressure on near-term profitability. It tells me management is prioritizing long-term positioning over near-term financial optics, which is bold but also risky.

Given all this, I'm not surprised the stock dropped more than 10%. When growth misses, cash flow declines, and capex jumps, the market tends to punish first and reassess later. The key question now is whether Oracle can demonstrate that these investments will actually translate into sustainable cloud and AI revenue growth over the next few quarters. Until I see that, I think the stock will remain very sensitive to data points and guidance updates.

As for the $180 level, I do think there's a good chance Oracle retests it. Sentiment has clearly shifted, and with volatility elevated, overshooting on the downside is common—especially for a stock that had been priced for strong cloud momentum. If the next earnings cycle or forward commentary doesn't restore confidence, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock trade back toward that zone before stabilizing.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. 

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