To The Moon

Google, TSMC Spark Massive Bearish Option Flows as Tech Risk Reprices

After AI tech stocks repeatedly notched fresh all-time highs, short-term risk signals in the options market are heating up significantly. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   set a record at $313.98 yesterday but slipped 2% to around $302 today; $Alphabet(GOOG)$   also pulled back from recent highs to $313. Though the declines aren't steep, both companies saw large, directionally clear options flows right at critical high-volatility levels, making “short-term risk repricing in mega-cap tech” a key market focus.

TSMC: $6.8M in concentrated Put sweeps signal rising short-term risk

TSMC saw three massive Put sweeps today totaling more than $6.8 million, all executed at the ask with high V/OI—clear signs of aggressive institutional buying. The most notable trades: two Jan 2026 300P blocks, 3,500 contracts ($3.19M premium) and 3,000 contracts ($2.73M premium), both with Delta ≈ –0.41, typical of deep out-of-the-money, short-term protective hedges. Another sweep of 3,600 contracts in the 260P (premium ~$899K) widened the downside strikes, creating a stepped protection structure.

Despite only a mild pullback in the stock and no change in fundamentals, the options flows—sequential sweeps, concentrated Put buying, and layered strikes—look like investors deliberately pushing down short-term volatility exposure at record highs. TSMC's AI/HPC demand, tight advanced-packaging capacity, and long-term competitive edge remain intact; institutions appear to be locking in gains and reducing drawdown risk late in an uptrend, a classic risk-management move.

Google: $40M in LEAPS Call selling shows institutions capping upside at highs

Unlike TSMC's downside hedging, Google's flows reflect a “cap the upside tail” approach. Two extremely rare Multi-Leg block trades hit the tape:

– Selling Jan 2028 270C (3,000 contracts, $30.14M premium)

– Selling Jan 2028 440C (3,000 contracts, $11.50M premium)

Both executed at the bid, clearly indicating selling. The combined $41M size and Cross/Multi-Leg classification point to institutional-level, long-dated structural adjustments.

Such LEAPS Call selling typically doesn't signal bearishness—instead, it indicates that after a series of record highs and elevated volatility, institutions choose to exchange rich premiums for defined upside, implying higher sensitivity to valuation and a belief that Google's short-term upside momentum may slow. Even with strong long-term drivers—Gemini rollout, in-house TPU improvements, and Cloud profitability—Google still faces near-term noise: rising AI costs, monetization timing uncertainty, and regulatory risks. This makes investors more willing to narrow the performance band of long-term holdings.

Summary

Though TSMC's aggressive Put buying and Google's LEAPS Call selling differ in direction, they deliver the same message: Institutions are not bearish on the long term, but at record price levels they are actively managing short-term volatility and upside elasticity.

In other words: the trend remains intact, but the location is elevated—short-term risk is clearly picking up.

For investors, patience may be prudent. Chasing at highs is less attractive; a future technical pullback could offer more compelling long-term entry points.

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