Why AI Still Doesn’t Feel Like a 10× Revolution
I've seen three technology revolutions in my life that made a 10x impact on the world.
1. The PC in the 1980s brought digital tools into the home. Pen and paper -> PC was easily a 10x improvement.
2. The internet in the late 90s/early 2000s made finding information trivial. I grew up with encyclopedias and a library card and suddenly 100x more information than they held could be discovered in minutes (dial-up was slow).
3. Smartphones moved the internet from the PC to your pocket. Now, the world's information was accessible 24/7 with virtually no friction.
This is why I struggle with AI.
What's the 10x improvement?
Creating videos of my kids with Disney characters is cool, but it's not a 10x change in my life.
Changing a calendar event with my voice in the car ( $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 's demo) is cool, but it's making something convenient just a little more convenient.
Every demo I see looks like it's made for a Silicon Valley executive who has their day scheduled in 15 minute increments. AI is replacing their assistants.
But how does it improve a regular person's life 10x?
Maybe a robot eventually picks up after my kids or mows the lawn, but again that's paying for convenience, which I can do today.
As we spend trillions of dollars to build out AI technology, I'm constantly grappling with my "meh" reaction to almost every AI demo I see.
I use AI.
I get value out of AI.
But is it a 10x step forward like the PC, internet, and mobile?
I don't see it, yet.
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