To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 29Dec25)

New Year’s Day Closures

In the upcoming week, several major financial markets will observe closures in celebration of New Year’s Day. The United States, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China will be closed on January 1st. Additionally, China will extend its holiday and remain closed on both January 1st and January 2nd. In Hong Kong, the market will have a half-day session on December 31st before closing for the holiday.

Crude Oil Inventories and Market Outlook

It is anticipated that there will be a drawdown of 2 million barrels in crude oil inventories. This reduction suggests an increase in demand at the production site, which may be interpreted as a positive signal for the market outlook.

Upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are scheduled for release next week. These minutes will serve as a significant reference point for understanding the direction of future interest rate decisions.

Manufacturing Sector Indicators

The forecast for the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December is 49.4, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Similarly, the Chicago PMI for December is forecast at 39.5, also suggesting a contraction in Chicago’s manufacturing activity. In contrast, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December is expected to show growth, with a forecast of 51.8.

Earnings Calendar (29Dec25)

There are no earnings of interest in the coming week. Without any earnings, let me share a stock screener setup.

How to find Great Companies using a stock screener

Imagine we are shopping for a strong, reliable business to own. We want one that’s:

• Making money (not losing it)

• Growing a little bigger each year

• Careful with borrowing (like not having big loans)

• Not too expensive to buy

This screener does exactly that — it automatically checks company reports to find the best ones. Only 12 made the list because it is about quality.

The 3 “Report Cards” Every Company Shares (Super Simple Version)

All companies must show these three pages of numbers (you can find them free on sites like Yahoo Finance or Finviz). Here’s what to look for in plain words:

Income Statement → “How much money did we make this year?”

• Good signs:

• Sales (revenue) going up over the years → More customers or higher prices.

• Ends with profit (positive number at the bottom) → They keep real money after all bills.

• Look for: Steady profits and growing sales for several years.

Balance Sheet → “What do we own and what do we owe right now?”

• Good signs:

• Very little or zero debt → Safe, like living in a paid-off house.

• More “stuff” owned than owed → Strong and secure.

• Look for: Almost no debt (the company can sleep easily during tough times).

Cash Flow Statement → “Did real cash actually come in?”

• Good signs:

• Positive cash from everyday business → They make real money, not just paper profits.

• Extra cash left over → Can grow, pay owners, or save for rainy days.

• Look for: Cash piling up steadily (cash is the most honest number).

One-Sentence Summary of a High-Quality Business

”A great company makes steady profits, grows sales slowly but surely, has little or no debt, and produces real cash year after year — without needing tricks or big risks.”

Key Insights

Common Themes — Very low/zero debt enables resilience and potential for buybacks/dividends. Positive multi-year growth filters out cyclical or declining businesses. Strong margins and ROE/ROIC indicate efficient operations.

Timeframe - I prefer reviewing 10 years or more, or more if possible.

Standouts:

• CALM (Cal-Maine Foods): Dominant U.S. egg producer. Extremely low P/E due to commodity-like business, but fits quality criteria perfectly (volatile earnings from egg prices, but strong when demand/prices are high).

• CPRX (Catalyst Pharmaceuticals): Rare disease biotech with approved drugs (e.g., Firdapse). Strong recent revenue/EPS growth from product portfolio; analysts are generally positive.

• CLMB (Climb Global Solutions): IT software distributor. Steady growth in niche; higher P/E but expanding earnings.

• CRUS (Cirrus Logic): Apple supplier (audio chips). Solid semiconductor play with consistent metrics.

• NICE & NTES: Larger internationals (Israeli/Chinese ADRs) with scale, strong software/gaming businesses.

Risks — Small sample (only 12 stocks) means the screen is strict—great for quality, but may miss broader opportunities. Some (e.g., biotech like CPRX/CRMD) have pipeline risks; others (CALM) are commodity-sensitive. International exposure (Israel, China) adds geopolitical risk.

This is not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Dec25)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

Following the recent top crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to suggest an uptrend.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they fan outwards. This convergence and subsequent uptrend further support the case for continued bullish momentum in the market.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.12 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

More Technical Analysis

Currently, a total of 21 market indicators point towards a “Buy” rating, while none suggest a “Sell” rating. This strong consensus among indicators reflects a notably positive outlook for the market at this time.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market continues to gravitate towards Greed.

Candlestick Analysis

Short-Term Candlestick Analysis (Daily, Late December 2025)

The recent daily chart shows the S&P 500 at all-time highs around 6,930, with the last trading candle (December 26 close) a small red one (-0.03%), featuring a modest upper shadow and closing near the low of a narrow range. This resembles a mild bearish signal (potential Shooting Star or gravestone-like indecision at highs), amid low holiday volume. The auto-detected patterns list recent completions like Morning Doji Star (bullish reversal, May 25) and Engulfing Bearish (Nov 02), but the most recent relevant ones are mixed bullish/bearish from earlier in the year. Short-term: Mild caution for consolidation or shallow pullback, with indecision at peaks; support near 6,900–6,920.

Long-Term Candlestick Analysis (Weekly/Monthly, 2025 Overview)

Over the year, the chart displays a strong series of large green candles dominating from mid-year onward, reflecting a powerful uptrend with higher highs. Completed patterns include multiple Bullish Engulfing, Three Outside Up, and Three White Soldiers (e.g., Nov/Dec dates), signalling sustained buying pressure and reversals to the upside. Bearish patterns (e.g., Engulfing Bearish, Three Black Crows) appear earlier but were overwhelmed by bullish follow-through. Long-term: Strongly bullish, favouring continuation higher into 2026, with dips likely bought; major support well below at prior swing levels.

S&P500 Market Outlook

Analysis of Current Market Momentum

The latest data suggest that the overall market is experiencing an upward trend. This bullish sentiment is supported by multiple indicators, which collectively point towards positive momentum in the market.

Volume Concerns and Bullish Momentum

Despite the prevailing optimism, there is reason for caution when considering recent trading volumes. Over the past few days, the volume has shown patterns that may not fully support sustained bullish momentum. Lower or inconsistent trading volumes can make it challenging for the market to maintain its upward trajectory, even in the presence of favourable indicators.

In summary, while the prospects for continued market growth remain strong, it is important to monitor trading volumes closely, as they play a critical role in the market’s ability to maintain its bullish outlook.

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Dec25)

Private equity firms are struggling in late 2025 due to high interest rates, tariffs, and a weak economy. This has created a record backlog of over 30,000 unsold companies, hurting investors (like pension funds and wealthy individuals) by locking up their money longer, delaying cash payouts, and causing returns to lag the stock market. To raise quick cash, more firms are selling small stakes in their own management companies—a trend continuing strongly into 2025 and beyond. This helps the firms but signals ongoing industry weakness that impacts investor returns. (Source is WSJ) - X user Kristen Shaughnessy

Debts, deliquencies and defaults from federal, private equity, shadow banking, junk bonds, corporate credit, consumer debts like credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, BNPL, others. Zombie companies, and add fraud & corruption. Are we a black swan away?

Fed Reserve just pumped $2.5 Billion into the U.S. Banking System through overnight repos. More than $120 Billion has been injected this year, compare that to prior years - BarChart

Medical costs in the US now account for a record 11.6% of US GDP, with healthcare expenditures doubling since 2012. This comes as consumer spending on healthcare services rose to $3.6 trillion in Q3 2025, an all-time high. As a result, healthcare now represents a near-record 17.0% of US consumer spending. By comparison, this percentage stood at 13.5% in 2000. US consumers are downing in healthcare costs. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Assets in US leveraged long ETFs now outweigh short ETFs by 12.5x, the most extreme imbalance on record and nearly 3x higher than in April. Nearly a record ~$146 billion is now parked in leveraged bullish funds, versus just $12 billion in inverse ETFs. By comparison, the ratio stood near 1 to 1 during the 2022 bear market and the 2020 crisis. This level of leverage would significantly amplify the downside move in any correction. - X user Global Markets Investor

One of the most overvalued markets.

S&P 500 on track for its 8th consecutive green month, its longest winning streak since 2017/18 - BarChart

Google parent Alphabet said it will acquire Intersect, a data center company. Alphabet said the acquisition will help bring more data center and generation capacity online faster. - CNBC

Peter Thiel says the quiet part loud: AI chips will get commoditised. This is why I avoid $NVDA. It made an immense amount of money marking up its GPUs by 10x and others had to pay as alternatives weren’t good enough. Now they are getting good enough. $AMD has already caught up with $NVDA in hardware performance, and ASICS are proving unexpectedly competitive due to their efficiency. $GOOG trained Gemini 3 solely on TPUs, and Anthropic is running a significant part of its training and inference workloads on Trainium clusters. As alternatives become even stronger, $NVDA margins and volumes will erode, and profits will shift from hardware to the application layer. - X user The X Capitalist

Grok's inputs on the risks from Softbank funding OpenAI: The main risks in SoftBank's Arm-backed loan setup for its $22.5B OpenAI investment include: - Arm stock price drops, pushing LTV above 25-35% thresholds and triggering margin calls or forced sales. - AI/tech market volatility or bubble burst, eroding collateral value. - High debt load ($18.5B margin debt) straining liquidity amid other commitments. - Delays in OpenAI's growth or monetisation, impacting returns. - Asset sales (e.g., Nvidia) are exposed to market timing risks. From Reuters and SoftBank reports as of Dec 2025.

My Investing Muse (29Dec25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

This offshoring jobs to India and other countries thing was already happening. It has been for quite some time. - X user Amanda Goodall

L.A.’s entertainment economy is spiralling downward: Work is evaporating, businesses are closing, and the city’s creative middle class is hanging on by a thread. - WSJ

"The job market is so bad, people in their 40s are resorting to going back to school instead of looking for work," per FORTUNE

“Auto Delinquencies Hit Record High as Consumers Caught Off Guard.” “PYMNTS Intelligence data showed that 34% of consumers who live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to pay their bills have had to spend more than usual in the past six months, which in turn has eaten into their savings. The cost of food has been a critical stressor cited by 56% of consumers interviewed by PYMNTS Intelligence. Additionally, 55% of consumers said the same about inflation, and 23% said rising costs are their greatest source of financial stress….” - X user Kristen Shaughnessy

My Final Thoughts

As 2025 ends, the market hits a new high, with record prices in gold and silver highlighting complex investor sentiment. While bond prices are expected to rise, the market shows mixed directions, causing some to question indicator reliability. This mix of bullish and bearish outlooks reflects the indicators’ purpose—to illuminate market possibilities amid uncertainty.

Technical conditions suggest potential for a Santa Claus rally, alongside tax-loss harvesting that may increase short-term volatility. Market participation is growing, often driven by workforce retrenchment as individuals turn to trading for income during job searches.

Debt levels remain a concern, and recent figures show rising delinquency and default rates, matching past recessionary periods and raising risk for year-end investors. 2026 looks to be a year of volatility.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$