To The Moon

AST SpaceMobile and EchoStar Stay Bullish as Options Turn Bearish on ServiceNow

Large, newly opened options trades emerged today, offering highly informative capital signals: $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$   is being treated as a continuation of a strong trend; $EchoStar(SATS)$   remains favored for medium- to long-term upside, though its one-year upside is being explicitly capped; meanwhile, $ServiceNow(NOW)$   is facing clear bearish continuation bets ahead of earnings.

ASTS: Bullish but Risk-Controlled, Large Put Selling Signals Trend Continuation

ASTS shares surged roughly 16% on January 16, yet options markets showed no meaningful profit-taking. The March 115 Put saw 2,000 contracts traded, representing approximately $3.91 million in premium, with V/OI exceeding 100, indicating that the flow was almost entirely newly opened positions. The structure strongly favors put selling, signaling confidence that the stock will maintain strength above key levels. At the same time, the February 95 Put also traded 2,000 contracts, with about $1.06 million in premium, serving as downside protection.

From a fundamental perspective, ASTS was recently included as a qualified bidder under the U.S. Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program, reinforcing market confidence in its technology capabilities and defense-related communications potential. Overall, the options structure suggests institutions are still betting on near-term strength, while remaining disciplined about downside risk amid elevated volatility.

SATS: Bullish Bias Intact, but a Break Above $190 Looks Unlikely Within a Year

SATS recently reached record highs, though daily price gains have moderated. Options activity points to a structured one-year bullish view: the January 2027 $190 Call traded 2,000 contracts, representing roughly $3.0 million in premium, with V/OI at 86.96; simultaneously, the January 2027 $130 Call traded 1,000 contracts, also with approximately $3.0 million in premium.

This combination indicates that institutions remain constructive on medium- to long-term upside, but are cautious on extreme upside scenarios. The pricing implies a preference for steady appreciation rather than an explosive rally, with a move above $190 within one year viewed as low probability. Fundamentally, orders and long-term contracts in the satellite and aerospace services segment provide earnings visibility, but valuation levels appear sufficiently full for investors to begin placing rational caps on upside expectations.

NOW: Bearish Continuation Into Earnings

In sharp contrast, ServiceNow is seeing sustained bearish positioning. Despite the stock already being down close to 50%, options markets show no signs of rebound positioning ahead of earnings. The January 30 $129 Put, covering the January 28 earnings release, traded 3,500 contracts, with approximately $2.31 million in premium and an extremely elevated V/OI of 194.44, confirming aggressive new bearish positioning. In addition, the May $105 Put also traded 3,500 contracts, representing about $1.24 million in premium, extending downside bets into the second quarter.

This structure resembles a bear-trend continuation trade, rather than simple earnings hedging. Against the backdrop of pressure on high-valuation software names and still-cautious enterprise IT spending expectations, options markets remain defensive toward NOW.

Summary and Investor Takeaways

Based on options flow, institutions are clearly distinguishing between trends worth participating in and risks worth avoiding. For investors, ASTS appears suitable for trend-following participation, with careful attention to volatility-driven pullbacks; SATS remains appropriate as a medium- to long-term holding, though expectations for sharp short-term upside should be tempered; and NOW warrants continued caution, as both fundamentals and options positioning suggest limited appetite for a pre- or post-earnings rebound.

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