One Year After Trump’s Return: Would TACO Happen Again?
US stocks opened sharply lower, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunging 1.5%. Mega-cap tech stocks weakened broadly: Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and Meta all fell more than 2%, while Alphabet and Microsoft slid nearly 2%, and Apple declined close to 1%.
It has been one year since Donald Trump returned to the White House. On the surface, markets have delivered a solid outcome, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 16% over the past year. Yet beneath that headline number lies a roller-coaster market defined by sharp drawdowns followed by repeated record highs.
Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. will impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb 1, with the threat of raising them to 25% by June 1 if a “Greenland deal” is not reached. Markets reacted immediately: gold and silver hit fresh weekly highs, U.S. 10-year yields moved higher, and equities sold off, with major tech stocks under pressure.
Looking back, April’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs initially shook markets, but investors quickly reverted to a “buy-the-dip” mindset.
As Trump 2.0 moves into a midterm election year, history becomes less comforting.
Since 1948, the second year of a presidential term has delivered the weakest average S&P 500 performance. Combined with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, investors are facing a far more complex landscape.
Repeated tariff threats, the prospect of more aggressive rate cuts under a new Fed chair, and the potential for fiscal stimulus form a powerful but risky mix. For markets, this suggests ongoing volatility in the short term, liquidity support over the full year, and rising importance of hedges such as gold as inflation risks are deferred rather than resolved.
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In a Trump midterm election year, would you add risk assets, increase hedges like gold, or stick to buy-the-dip trading?
Would TACO happen this week?
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TACO man has just fired another round of tariff theatrics -10% to 8 European nations increasing to 25% if the Greenland deal does not happen.
Stocks took an express elevator down. Gold & Silver sprinted to new highs. US 10 year yields climbed.
With US midterm elections in 2026, do you add risk, boost hedges or buy the dips?
There is no right answer, only strategy that matches your temperament.
I may do all 3. Buy IAU Gold ETF, continue to dance with risk assets like USAR and then dip buying into SPYM ETF, treating every selloff like a TACO Special.
TACO man is at it again serving another year of spicy unpredictability.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
在特朗普中期选举年，我并不急于增加风险。我对优质敞口保持选择性，同时更多地依赖黄金等对冲 $SPDR金股(GLD)$ ——不是因为我看空，而是因为通胀风险被推迟，政策摇摆加剧。当政策方向如此不稳定时，资本保值对我来说更重要。
至于TACO，我仍然认为短期概率很高。一旦市场做出反应，强硬的言论往往会消退，但即使本周发生这种情况，波动性仍然存在。我正在密切关注利率和流动性以求确认。
@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
The "TACO" trade, which involves buying stocks after a tariff announcement pushes them lower on the assumption President Trump will back down, may happen this week.
Given the historical pattern and current market reactions, another "TACO" moment—a brief dip followed by a quick recovery—is highly anticipated this week.
Trump is building great America using old strategies
However time change and the world become more cooperative as a whole
Trump want to take over the N America
and yes Canada is his target too[Facepalm]
God bless Canada and the rest of the world
Do you feel like what happen years ago that Russia invades Ukraine[Glance]
But using modern weapons, ie finance tools
Keep holding my SLV and shop with dip[Great]
黄金的作用不是赚快钱，而是降低组合波动，或者对冲极端风险黑天鹅、流动性危机，在风险资产下跌时“稳住心态和现金流”。